Market evolution: Automotive laminated safety glass (CN 70072120) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the EU's external trade in laminated safety glass for motor vehicles (CN code 70072120) over the period 2015–2025. This product, classified under the broader category of safety glass (CN 7007), encompasses windscreens, side windows, and other laminated glass components shaped for use in motor vehicles. The EU is both a major producer and a major consumer of this glass, with its automotive sector driving sustained demand. Over the decade under review, the EU's trade position in this product underwent a dramatic transformation: the bloc shifted from a comfortable net-exporter status toward near balance, with imports surging — particularly from China — while export volumes contracted sharply. The trade surplus shrank by 78%, from €260 million in 2015 to just €56 million in 2025. This report analyses the key dynamics behind this structural shift.

1. A Surplus in Erosion: Falling Export Volumes Meet Surging Import Demand

1.1 Export volumes declined steeply while prices rose

EU exports of automotive laminated safety glass to non-EU countries fell from €511 million in 2015 to €435 million in 2025 in value terms (–15%). However, the decline in physical volume was far more severe: export quantities dropped from 91,252 tonnes to 53,660 tonnes (–41.2%). This divergence is explained by a 44.6% rise in average unit export prices, from €5,605/t to €8,104/t. In other words, the EU exported significantly less glass by volume but was able to command higher prices per unit — likely reflecting a shift toward higher-value-added products and cost pass-through from inflation in energy and raw materials.

1.2 Imports expanded across both value and volume

On the import side, the trajectory was the mirror opposite. EU imports rose from €252 million to €379 million in value (+50.3%) and from 70,777 tonnes to 99,404 tonnes in quantity (+40.4%). Average import unit values edged up more modestly, from €3,559/t to €3,810/t (+7.0%). The widening gap between export and import unit values — €8,104/t versus €3,810/t in 2025 — suggests that the EU increasingly imports lower-cost glass (primarily from Asia) while specialising its own exports in higher-specification products destined for premium vehicle platforms.

1.3 The trade surplus collapsed by 78%

The combined effect of declining export values and rising import values was a dramatic erosion of the EU's trade surplus:

Despite remaining a net exporter, the surplus narrowed to a point where the EU's self-sufficiency in this segment is increasingly in question. The net import reliance indicator moved from –6.0% in 2015 to –2.1% in 2025, confirming that the EU is converging toward import–export parity.

2. A Radically Reconfigured Partner Landscape

2.1 China became the overwhelmingly dominant import supplier

The single most transformative development in this market has been the rise of China as the EU's primary source of imported automotive laminated safety glass. Chinese exports to the EU surged from €61 million in 2015 to €265 million in 2025 — an increase of 335.8%. By 2025, China alone accounted for approximately 70% of all EU imports by value, up from roughly 24% in 2015. This dominance is also reflected in the import concentration index (HHI), which tripled from 1,511 to 5,069 — moving from a moderately concentrated structure to a highly concentrated one. This dynamic mirrors the broader pattern seen across many automotive components, where Chinese glass manufacturers (such as Fuyao Glass Industry Group) have aggressively expanded capacity and market share in Europe.

2.2 The United Kingdom's role shrank on both sides of the ledger

The UK was the EU's largest single export destination in 2015 (€260 million, 51% of EU exports) and a significant import source (€44 million). By 2025, exports to the UK had fallen to €155 million (–40.6%) and imports from the UK to €13 million (–71.2%). The post-Brexit reconfiguration — including customs formalities, regulatory divergence, and shifts in automotive production patterns — appears to have significantly dampened bilateral trade in this product. The volatility coefficient for UK-bound exports was 0.43, reflecting pronounced year-to-year swings during the transition period.

2.3 Exports to Türkiye surged while Russia collapsed

Two partner-level dynamics stand out at opposite ends of the spectrum:

• Türkiye: EU exports to Türkiye grew from €16 million to €99 million (+506%), making it the second-largest destination by 2025. This likely reflects the expansion of automotive assembly in Türkiye (Ford, Toyota, Fiat/Renault plants) and the use of EU-sourced glass in those supply chains. A notable price shock was detected in 2023, with unit values to Türkiye jumping 34.5%.

• Russian Federation: Bilateral trade with Russia collapsed almost entirely following the 2022 invasion of Ukraine and subsequent sanctions. Exports fell from €22 million to €0.3 million (–98.4%) and imports from €7 million to €0.1 million (–98.6%). A supply shock of –100% was registered for Russian imports in 2023.

2.4 Morocco and India emerged as secondary import sources

Morocco's exports to the EU grew from €0.9 million to €14.9 million (+1,525%), although with very high volatility (CV of 0.75), reflecting the still-nascent nature of this supply route. India also expanded its presence, rising from €6.0 million to €9.0 million (+51.4%), with notably low volatility (CV of 0.15), suggesting a stable, gradually growing supplier relationship. These smaller sources nonetheless remain dwarfed by China's scale.

3. Production Resilience, Specialisation, and Growing Structural Vulnerability

3.1 EU production volumes held steady, but value grew strongly

Despite the surge in imports, EU domestic production of laminated automotive glass remained broadly stable in volume terms, moving from 365,201 tonnes in 2015 to 364,000 tonnes in 2025 (–0.3%). However, the production value increased significantly, from €1.15 billion to €1.80 billion (+56.9%). This indicates that EU-based manufacturers are producing roughly the same physical quantity of glass but commanding much higher prices — consistent with inflation pass-through, a shift toward higher-specification products (e.g., heads-up display-compatible windshields, acoustic laminates), or both.

3.2 Central and Eastern Europe anchored by specialised producers

The specialisation analysis reveals a clear geographic concentration of comparative advantage in Central and Eastern Europe:

Poland and Czechia together account for nearly 38% of EU production and exhibit strong revealed comparative advantage, reflecting the deep integration of glass manufacturing into the Central European automotive supply chain (proximity to assembly plants of Volkswagen, Škoda, Toyota, and others). Bulgaria's export surge — from €0.15 million to €43.0 million — further underlines the eastward shift of production capacity.

3.3 Germany and Italy saw their export positions erode

Germany remained the EU's largest exporter in 2025 but at €98 million, roughly half its 2015 level of €191 million (–48.7%). Italy similarly fell from €56 million to €29 million (–48.5%). These declines in the traditional Western European manufacturing heartlands, combined with the rise of CEE exporters, point to a structural relocation of capacity within the EU — or, more precisely, to CEE-based plants capturing a growing share of intra-EU and external shipments.

3.4 Import concentration and export diversification moved in opposite directions

A notable structural divergence emerged between import and export market concentration:

The EU's export market became more diversified over the period, with the HHI falling as trade spread across more partners (notably Türkiye and Norway gaining share). Conversely, imports became dramatically more concentrated on China. This asymmetry represents a key vulnerability: while EU exports are spread across many markets, the import side is increasingly dependent on a single supplier. Trade intensity — measured as the ratio of trade to production — rose from 32.4% to 41.5%, confirming that the EU's automotive glass sector is becoming more deeply intertwined with international markets.

Conclusion

Over the 2015–2025 period, the EU's trade in automotive laminated safety glass underwent a fundamental rebalancing. The bloc's trade surplus shrank by 78%, driven by a combination of falling export volumes (–41.2% by weight) and surging imports (+40.4% by weight). The dominant force on the import side has been China, which grew from a quarter to roughly 70% of EU import value, pushing import concentration to very high levels. On the export side, the loss of the Russian market, the partial withdrawal from the UK, and the halving of German and Italian export volumes were partially offset by the remarkable growth of exports to Türkiye and the rise of CEE-based producers. EU domestic production held steady in volume terms, but its value grew by 57%, suggesting a move up the value chain. The net result is a sector that remains a net exporter but whose margin of self-sufficiency has narrowed dangerously. The extreme concentration of imports on China represents the most significant structural vulnerability for the EU's automotive glass supply chain going forward.