Market evolution: Petroleum oils (CN 2710) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of EU extra-EU trade in refined petroleum oils (Customs code 2710) over the 2015–2025 period. CN 2710 is a broad heading that encompasses medium and light petroleum oils (excluding crude), biodiesel-containing preparations, and waste oils. Over the decade under review, EU trade in these products has been shaped by three major forces: a secular decline in traded volumes offset by surging unit values; a dramatic geopolitical reconfiguration of import supply chains following the 2022 energy crisis; and a persistent concentration of both imports and exports among a small number of EU member states and product subcategories. The scope and product definitions confirm that the data window spans 2015 to 2025 inclusive, with no incomplete periods.

1. Volume Contraction, Value Resilience: A Decade Decoupled

The most striking macro-level feature of EU petroleum trade under CN 2710 is the divergence between traded volumes and trade values. While physical quantities fell markedly on both the import and export sides, total values proved resilient — buoyed by steep price increases, especially from 2021 onward.

1.1 Exports: 21% fewer tonnes, 12% more value

EU exports of CN 2710 products declined from 150.7 million tonnes in 2015 to 118.4 million tonnes in 2025, a contraction of 21.4%. Over the same span, however, the total export value rose from €68.7 billion to €77.3 billion (+12.4%). The reconciliation lies in unit values: the average export price climbed from €456 per tonne to €647 per tonne (+41.9%), peaking at €923 per tonne in 2022 during the global energy price spike. The general trade overview shows the minimum export value was recorded in 2020 (€48.0 billion), reflecting the pandemic-induced demand collapse, before surging to a peak of €130.3 billion in 2022.

1.2 Imports: an even sharper volume decline

On the import side, the volume contraction was steeper. EU imports fell from 131.5 million tonnes to 91.2 million tonnes (−30.7%), while import values edged up from €55.9 billion to €58.4 billion (+4.5%). Unit import prices rose from €425 per tonne to €639 per tonne (+50.4%), peaking at €939 per tonne in 2022. The fact that imports lost more volume than exports suggests that EU domestic refining activity may have partially compensated for reduced inbound flows — or that demand itself structurally softened over the decade.

1.3 The trade balance widened despite lower volumes

The EU's trade surplus in CN 2710 products grew from €12.9 billion in 2015 to €18.9 billion in 2025 (+46.8%), reaching a high of €28.7 billion in 2022. This is a notable outcome: despite declining physical throughput, the EU's net exporter position in refined petroleum products strengthened, driven by the favourable price environment and the fact that export prices rose somewhat faster than import prices in cumulative terms.

Source: General Overview

2. The Russia Shock and the Reconfiguration of EU Petroleum Supply

The single most transformative event in the decade under review was the collapse of EU petroleum imports from Russia following the 2022 invasion of Ukraine and subsequent sanctions. This event triggered a radical diversification of EU import sources and a structural decline in import concentration.

2.1 Russia: from dominant supplier to near-zero

In 2015, Russia was by far the EU's largest external supplier of CN 2710 products, accounting for €19.6 billion — more than a third of total import value. By 2025, Russian imports had fallen to just €167 million, a decline of 99.2%. The peak was reached in 2022 at €35.4 billion, after which volumes and values collapsed as sanctions took effect. The top import partners data confirm this was not a gradual trend but an abrupt structural break.

2.2 New suppliers filled the void — led by Gulf states and India

The suppliers that gained the most share over the period were Saudi Arabia (+189.6%, reaching €8.8 billion in 2025), India (+172.4%, reaching €5.0 billion), and the United Arab Emirates (+53.6%). The United States remained a relatively stable supplier, hovering around €6–7 billion for most of the period. The United Kingdom, once a major source, saw its share decline by 44.4% — likely reflecting post-Brexit trade frictions and the UK's own refining capacity constraints.

2.3 Import concentration fell dramatically

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for EU import concentration by value plummeted from 1,949 in 2015 to 861 in 2025, a decline of 55.9%. An HHI below 1,000 is generally considered indicative of a competitive, unconcentrated market. This shift — from a moderately concentrated market dominated by Russia to a diversified one — is the most important structural change in EU petroleum trade during this period. The concentration data show that the volume-based HHI followed a similar trajectory, falling from 2,158 to 871 (−59.7%).

2.4 The 2022 price shocks reflected the geopolitical rupture

The volatility and shock analysis identifies three major price shock events, all centred on 2022:

• Saudi Arabia (exports from EU): price abnormality of 6.5σ, with a +113.2% year-on-year shift
• India (imports to EU): price abnormality of 6.3σ, with a +121.2% year-on-year shift
• Canada (exports from EU): price abnormality of 6.0σ, with a +92.8% year-on-year shift

These shocks are consistent with the broader energy crisis triggered by the Russia-Ukraine conflict. India, in particular, became both a larger and a more volatile supplier, with a coefficient of variation (CV) of 0.46 — reflecting the rapid and unpredictable scaling of Indian refinery exports to Europe as Russian crude was redirected to Asian refineries and then re-exported as refined products.

3. A Two-Speed Market: EU Member States, Export Destinations, and Product Segments

Beneath the aggregate trends, EU petroleum trade is characterised by significant geographic concentration within the bloc and a heavy reliance on a small number of product subcategories and export destinations.

3.1 A handful of EU member states dominate both imports and exports

On the import side, the Netherlands (€11.5 billion), France (€11.6 billion), Belgium (€5.7 billion), and Italy (€5.6 billion) together accounted for the bulk of external procurement in 2025. On the export side, the Netherlands was the clear leader at €18.7 billion, followed by Belgium (€10.1 billion), Greece (€7.7 billion), and Italy (€7.0 billion). The EU member state breakdown confirms that these countries — all with major port and refining infrastructure — dominate the EU's external petroleum trade. Greece and Spain saw notable increases in export value (+43.6% and +22.1% respectively), while Germany and Italy saw declines in imports (−34.0% and the reverse pattern on exports).

3.2 Export destinations remained more stable than import sources

Unlike the radical reorientation of imports, EU export destinations changed less dramatically. The United States remained the top export destination throughout (€8.1 billion in 2015, €8.1 billion in 2025). The United Kingdom grew from €7.8 billion to €10.6 billion (+36.5%), and Gibraltar — a major bunkering hub — rose from €3.3 billion to €6.0 billion (+82.4%). Nigeria, once a significant destination at €4.0 billion, declined to €2.8 billion (−29.9%). The export-side HHI remained low and relatively stable, edging up slightly from 573 to 639 (+11.6%), suggesting only modest shifts in destination concentration.

3.3 Medium oils (271019) dominate; light oils (271012) are in decline

The product segment breakdown reveals that medium petroleum oils (CN 271019) accounted for the majority of both import and export volumes. In 2025, imports of 271019 stood at 74.8 million tonnes (down from 107.3 million tonnes in 2015), while exports reached 65.6 million tonnes (down from 91.8 million tonnes). Light oils (CN 271012) saw even sharper declines: import volumes fell from 23.7 million tonnes to 15.3 million tonnes (−35.4%), and export volumes dropped from 58.5 million tonnes to 52.4 million tonnes (−10.4%). Biodiesel-containing preparations (CN 271020) and waste oils (CN 271099, 271091) remain marginal in volume terms, though waste oil imports have roughly tripled since 2015, potentially reflecting circular-economy policy initiatives.

Conclusion

Over the 2015–2025 decade, EU trade in refined petroleum oils (CN 2710) underwent three fundamental shifts. First, traded volumes contracted significantly — by 21% on the export side and 31% on the import side — while trade values proved resilient thanks to steep price increases, especially during the 2022 energy crisis. Second, and most dramatically, the near-total elimination of Russian imports (−99.2% by value) reshaped the EU's supply geography, replacing a concentrated dependency on Russia with a diversified portfolio of Gulf, Indian, and North American suppliers, cutting import concentration (HHI) by more than half. Third, the market remained structurally dependent on a small number of EU member states with major refining and port capacity, and on medium petroleum oils (CN 271019), which continued to account for the lion's share of both import and export volumes.

Looking at the most recent data (2025), prices have retreated from their 2022 peaks but remain well above 2015 levels, and the trade balance is healthy. The key risk factors for the coming years include the durability of the new supply chain configurations, the impact of EU climate policy (including the inclusion of maritime fuels in the Emissions Trading System) on petroleum product demand, and the potential for further geopolitical disruptions in an increasingly fragmented global energy market.