Market evolution: Coal coke and semi-coke (CN 2704) — 2015–2025

Introduction

Coke and semi-coke of coal, lignite or peat (CN 2704) is a critical industrial commodity, primarily consumed as a reducing agent and fuel in blast-furnace steelmaking. Over the 2015–2025 period, the EU has consistently maintained a positive trade balance in this product, acting as a net exporter to non-EU countries. However, beneath this aggregate stability, the market has been shaped by three powerful and interrelated dynamics: extreme price volatility culminating in the 2022 energy shock, a profound geopolitical reshuffling of import supply chains, and a growing concentration of export capacity within a single EU Member State.

Overall, EU exports grew from €391 million in 2015 to €641 million in 2025 (+63.8% in value), while imports rose from €190 million to €360 million (+89.5%). The trade surplus widened from €202 million to €281 million (+39.7%). Yet these period-to-period comparisons mask a far more volatile trajectory in between.

1. Resilient Volumes, Extreme Price Swings: The 2022 Super-Peak and Its Aftermath

The most striking feature of the 2015–2025 period is the divergence between relatively stable physical trade volumes and wildly fluctuating monetary values. While tonnages moved within a bounded range, unit prices — and therefore total values — experienced unprecedented spikes, driven largely by the global energy crisis of 2022.

Export volumes grew modestly while prices surged

EU export quantities increased only moderately over the decade, from 2.23 million tonnes in 2015 to 2.47 million tonnes in 2025, a gain of just 10.5%. In contrast, the export value rose by 63.8%, from €391 million to €641 million. This gap is explained almost entirely by the rise in unit export prices, which climbed from €175 per tonne to €260 per tonne (+48.3%). At its peak — which data patterns strongly associate with 2022 — the average export price reached €482 per tonne, nearly three times the 2015 level, while total export value surged to approximately €1.14 billion.

Import prices and values showed even greater amplitude

On the import side, the pattern was similar but even more pronounced in relative terms. Import quantities ranged from a low of approximately 925,000 tonnes to a high of 1.83 million tonnes — a near-doubling — while the import value swung from a floor of €164 million to a ceiling of €843 million, a fivefold difference. Unit import prices peaked at roughly €461 per tonne, again almost certainly in 2022.

A new price plateau has emerged post-crisis

While prices have retreated sharply from their 2022 peak, they have not returned to pre-crisis levels. The 2025 export price of €260 per tonne remains 48% above the 2015 starting point, and the import price of €209 per tonne is 50% higher. This suggests that the energy shock produced a structural upward shift in the coke price environment, reflecting higher input costs (coking coal, energy) and altered trade flows. Notably, the EU trade balance peaked at €656 million during the crisis year, indicating that EU exporters captured a disproportionate share of the price windfall — consistent with export prices consistently running above import prices throughout the period.

2. A Supply Chain Upended: Geopolitical Shifts in EU Coke Imports

The import side of the EU's CN 2704 trade has undergone a fundamental geographical reorientation over the decade, driven by geopolitical disruptions including sanctions on Russia, shifting US export strategies, and the rise of new suppliers from Southeast Asia and South America. This reconfiguration has materially increased the concentration of import supply.

Russia remains a significant partner despite the geopolitical context

The data on import partners shows that imports from the Russian Federation grew from €52 million in 2015 to a peak of approximately €247 million before settling at €157 million in 2025 — a cumulative increase of 202.6%. This continued presence, even after the EU's adoption of restrictive measures on Russian coal and related products from 2022 onwards, may reflect specific derogations for metallurgical-grade coke, transitional arrangements, or indirect trade flows. Russia's coefficient of variation in import value (0.29) was in fact the lowest among all major suppliers, indicating relatively stable flows — a pattern that makes its sustained presence in the data all the more noteworthy.

US supply has collapsed; Indonesia and Colombia have surged

The most dramatic reshuffling has involved the near-total withdrawal of US coke from the EU market and the explosive growth of Indonesian and Colombian supply:

Indonesia's trajectory is particularly striking: from virtually zero in 2015 to becoming the EU's single largest coke import source by value in 2025 (€162 million). This likely reflects Indonesia's expanding coal-processing capacity and its ability to fill the supply gap left by sanctioned or redirected Russian coal and US supply. The United States, which peaked at €182 million in imports, has essentially exited the market, with just €87,000 in 2025 — a 98.9% decline. Colombia, too, has more than quadrupled its shipments, though with considerable volatility (coefficient of variation of 0.54).

Import concentration has risen to concerning levels

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for EU coke imports by value rose sharply from 1,871 in 2015 to 3,125 in 2025 — a 67.1% increase. An HHI above 2,500 is conventionally regarded as indicating a "highly concentrated" market. The import HHI reached its peak at 3,850 during the period, underscoring the vulnerability created by the loss of diversified supply. By contrast, the export-side HHI remained more moderate, rising only from 1,538 to 1,746 (+13.6%), as EU exports were already dominated by a single country (Poland) at the start of the period.

This concentration rise on the import side constitutes a meaningful supply-security risk for EU steelmakers dependent on externally sourced coke.

3. Poland's Coke Hegemony and the Reconfiguration of EU Export Flows

On the export side, the most defining structural feature of the 2015–2025 period is the overwhelming and growing dominance of Poland, combined with a marked shift in destination markets toward India, Serbia, and other non-traditional partners.

Poland accounts for an ever-larger share of EU coke exports

Data on EU Member State reporters reveals that Poland's coke exports grew from €285 million in 2015 to €551 million in 2025 (+93.0%). In share terms, Poland's contribution rose from approximately 73% of total EU coke exports in 2015 to 86% in 2025, with the peak year reaching an estimated 81% of the even larger 2022 total. Poland's revealed comparative advantage (RCA) of 8.44 and RSCA of 0.79 are far above any other Member State, confirming an extreme and deep-rooted specialisation in coke production and export.

The Netherlands, which exported €22 million in 2015 and peaked at €108 million, saw its exports collapse to just €9,420 in 2025 — a near-total exit. Hungary similarly fell from €11 million to under €2 million. In effect, the EU's coke export base has narrowed dramatically around Poland.

India and Serbia have replaced traditional destinations

The partner-level export data shows a clear reorientation of destination markets:

India has become the EU's largest single export destination, growing from €40 million to €170 million (+321%). Serbia has more than tripled its imports of EU coke, rising to €87 million, consistent with the country's expanding steel sector and its proximity to EU producers. Algeria, by contrast, has almost entirely disappeared as an export market (−98.3%), after peaking at €105 million. The United Kingdom's share has also declined, despite being a geographically proximate market.

The volatility analysis shows that Norway and Pakistan are the most stable export destinations (CV of 0.13 and 0.12 respectively), while trade with China was extremely erratic (CV of 2.84).

Belgium has emerged as the EU's primary import gateway

Among EU Member States, the geography of coke imports has shifted decisively. Belgium's imports surged from €17 million in 2015 to €169 million in 2025 (+893%), making it by far the largest importer and accounting for nearly half of total EU imports by value. France followed a similar trajectory, growing from €11 million to €64 million (+471%). Meanwhile, Spain's imports collapsed from €44 million to essentially zero, Romania's fell from €7 million to €1.2 million (−83%), and Italy's declined from €8 million to €1.6 million (−80%). This westward shift likely reflects the consolidation of European steel production and the role of Antwerp and other North Sea ports as entry hubs for seaborne coke supply.

Conclusion

The EU's trade in coke and semi-coke (CN 2704) over the 2015–2025 decade tells a story of three reinforcing transformations. First, a period of relatively stable volumes was punctuated by extreme price volatility, with the 2022 energy crisis driving unit prices to nearly triple their pre-crisis levels and producing an EU trade surplus peak of €656 million. Prices have since normalised but remain structurally elevated. Second, the EU's import supply base has been dramatically reshaped by geopolitical forces: the United States has almost entirely withdrawn, Indonesia has risen from nothing to become the top supplier, and Russia — despite the broader sanctions context — remains a visible partner. This reshuffling has pushed import-side concentration (HHI) to 3,125, well into "highly concentrated" territory, posing supply-security questions for downstream industries. Third, the EU's export capacity has consolidated around Poland, which now accounts for roughly 86% of all extra-EU coke exports by value, while destination markets have shifted toward India and Serbia and away from Algeria and the United Kingdom.

Looking forward, the coke market's trajectory will be shaped by the pace of EU steel sector decarbonisation (particularly the transition from blast furnaces to electric arc furnaces, which require less or no coke), the durability of Indonesia's new role as a major supplier, and the extent to which sanctions-related restrictions on Russian metallurgical inputs are enforced and maintained.