Market evolution: Liquefied petroleum gas (CN 2711) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyzes the evolution of the European Union's trade in petroleum gas and other gaseous hydrocarbons (customs code CN 2711) from 2015 to 2025. The code encompasses a range of products, including liquefied natural gas (LNG), propane, butanes, and other liquefied gaseous hydrocarbons, as well as natural gas in its gaseous state. Over the decade, the EU's position as a major importer intensified, shaped by volatile energy markets, geopolitical shifts, and a significant restructuring of supply chains. The analysis reveals a story of soaring import costs, a fundamental realignment of trading partners, and increased market concentration in key flows.

1. A Widening Trade Deficit Fueled by Price Spikes, Not Volume

The EU's trade balance for CN 2711 products deteriorated significantly over the period, driven predominantly by dramatic price increases rather than proportional growth in imported volumes. This highlights the region's vulnerability to global energy price shocks.

1.1 Soaring Values Amid Modest Volume Growth

Between 2015 and 2025, the value of EU imports more than doubled, rising by 119.1% to reach €87.96 billion in 2025. In contrast, the imported quantity grew by a more modest 21.0% over the same period, from 118.95 million tonnes to 143.91 million tonnes. This stark divergence is explained by a 63.5% increase in the average import price, which climbed from €322.97 per tonne in 2015 to €527.98 per tonne in 2025.

1.2 The Peak of the Energy Crisis

The price impact was most extreme in 2022, a year marked by severe energy market disruptions. That year, the average import price spiked to a record €1,238.89 per tonne, while the import value reached an all-time high of €234.90 billion. This price shock was the primary driver of the EU's trade deficit, which ballooned to -€230.06 billion in 2022, a stark contrast to the -€38.28 billion deficit recorded in 2015.

1.3 Export Growth Outpaced by Import Reliance

While the EU also increased its exports, this growth was insufficient to offset the surge in import costs. Export value grew by 123.5% to €4.16 billion in 2025, and export volume rose by 36.0%. However, the resulting trade balance remained deeply negative, standing at -€83.80 billion in 2025, underscoring the EU's structural dependency on external suppliers for these energy products.

2. A Fundamental Realignment of Supply Sources and Export Markets

The period witnessed a tectonic shift in the geographic origins of the EU's imports and the destinations of its exports, largely catalyzed by geopolitical events and the global LNG market's expansion.

2.1 The Meteoric Rise of the United States as a Supplier

The most dramatic change was the emergence of the United States as a top-tier supplier. US imports surged by 3,329.5%, from €828 million in 2015 to €28.40 billion in 2025. This growth was highly volatile, with a coefficient of variation (CV) of 0.849 among the highest for import partners. The data reflects a strategic pivot towards flexible, seaborne LNG supply, particularly after 2021.

2.2 The Reconfiguration of Traditional Pipelines

Concurrently, imports from Russia, historically the EU's dominant pipeline gas supplier, showed volatility and a relative decline in share. Russian imports peaked in value in 2021 at €48.28 billion before fluctuating, ending at €13.24 billion in 2025. This volatility, reflected in a CV of 0.289, indicates the disruption of established pipeline flows. Meanwhile, other established suppliers like Algeria and Norway saw their values increase significantly (by 66.5% and 78.3% respectively from 2015-2025), but not at the explosive rate of the US.

2.3 Diversification of Export Destinations Geopolitically Oriented

EU exports became more concentrated but also pivoted towards specific neighboring markets. Exports to Ukraine and Moldova grew by 1,106.2% and 8,575.7% respectively between 2015 and 2025, reflecting a clear reorientation of supply flows. This is corroborated by the sharp increase in the export concentration index (HHI), which rose from 550 in 2015 to 1,950 in 2025, indicating a less diversified export market structure.

3. Market Volatility and the 2022 Supply Shock

The trade data reveals pronounced price volatility across all segments, culminating in a systemic shock in 2022 that reshaped market dynamics.

3.1 Systemic Price Abnormalities in 2022

The analysis detected significant price shock events centered on 2022. Export prices to Serbia and the UK exhibited abnormal increases of 508.7% and 220.5% respectively, with high abnormality scores. This period was the epicenter of the energy crisis, where prices deviated massively from historical trends.

3.2 Divergent Volatility Among Partners

Volatility, measured by the coefficient of variation (CV), differed markedly among partners. For imports, pipelines from neighbours like Algeria (CV: 0.139) and Norway (CV: 0.109) were relatively stable, while newer LNG suppliers like the United States (CV: 0.849) and Azerbaijan (CV: 0.966) showed extreme fluctuation. On the export side, flows to Moldova (CV: 1.696) and the UK (CV: 0.961) were highly volatile, contrasting with steadier markets like Morocco (CV: 0.130).

3.3 The LNG Price Spike as the Key Driver

A breakdown by product segment shows that the price spike was particularly acute for Liquefied Natural Gas (CN 271111). Its import price per tonne leaped from €225 in 2016 to €1,284 in 2022, a 470% increase in just six years. This segment alone accounted for over €111 billion of the €234 billion total import value in 2022, demonstrating that the global competition for LNG cargoes was the central engine of the EU's import bill shock.

Conclusion

Over the 2015-2025 period, the EU's trade in petroleum gases (CN 2711) underwent a profound transformation characterized by increased monetary exposure, supplier realignment, and heightened volatility. The trade deficit widened primarily due to unavoidable price inflation rather than a massive increase in consumption. Geopolitically, the market saw a decisive shift from stable pipeline imports from Russia towards volatile but flexible LNG supplies from the United States and others. Concurrently, EU exports became more concentrated, serving geopolitical objectives in neighbouring countries. The 2022 energy crisis acted as a watershed moment, crystallizing these trends and revealing the extreme price sensitivity of the EU's import-dependent energy model. The data underscores a decade where the EU secured alternative volumes of energy but at significantly higher and more variable costs.