Market evolution: Electricity (CN 2716) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the European Union's extra-EU trade in electrical energy (Customs Nomenclature code 2716) over the period 2015–2025. Electricity is a unique commodity in international trade: it cannot be stored easily in large quantities, cross-border flows depend on physical grid interconnections with neighbouring countries, and its value is extraordinarily sensitive to energy market conditions. The period under review spans from a period of relative market stability through the unprecedented energy price shock of 2021–2022, triggered largely by the curtailment of Russian gas supplies, and into a partial normalisation. Over the full eleven-year window, the EU saw its extra-EU electricity trade value surge far beyond what volume growth alone would explain, reflecting the dominant role of price dynamics.

1. Explosive Value Growth Driven Primarily by Price, Not Volume

1.1. Import values grew more than fourfold while volumes rose by less than a third

Between 2015 and 2025, the value of EU electricity imports from non-EU countries rose from €2.02 billion to €8.42 billion — an increase of 316.1%. Over the same period, the volume of imported electricity (measured in thousand kilowatt-hours) grew from 65,475,320 to 86,199,509 thousand kWh, a more modest increase of 31.7%. This stark divergence reveals that the vast majority of the value increase was price-driven. Indeed, the unit import price climbed from €30.91 to €97.70 per 1,000 kWh (+216.1%), peaking at an extraordinary €258.75 per 1,000 kWh during the energy crisis period.

Source: General Overview — trade

1.2. Exports followed a similar but less dramatic trajectory

EU electricity exports to non-EU partners grew from €3.80 billion to €8.58 billion (+126.1%), while export volumes rose from 92,701,726 to 112,499,372 thousand kWh (+21.4%). The export unit price increased from €40.95 to €76.31 per 1,000 kWh (+86.3%), with a peak of €215.45 per 1,000 kWh. Prices thus roughly doubled for exports, compared to more than tripling for imports, indicating that the EU's net electricity price position deteriorated.

1.3. The trade surplus eroded almost entirely

The EU's electricity trade balance with non-EU countries collapsed from a surplus of €1.77 billion in 2015 to just €0.16 billion in 2025, a decline of 90.8%. At its worst point, the balance swung to a deficit of −€5.86 billion, consistent with the peak of the energy crisis in 2022 when import prices and volumes both surged. By 2025, the EU barely maintained a positive balance, a structural shift from its historically comfortable net-exporter position.

2. The 2022 Energy Crisis as a Defining Shock

2.1. Import values reached a peak of €22.1 billion, nearly ten times the 2015 level

The maximum annual import value over the period was €22.12 billion, a figure that dwarfs both the 2015 starting point (€2.02 billion) and the 2025 ending value (€8.42 billion). This peak almost certainly corresponds to 2022, the year in which European wholesale electricity prices reached historic highs due to the disruption of Russian natural gas flows and the broader energy supply crisis. The import unit price of €258.75 per 1,000 kWh — more than eight times the 2015 level — confirms the extraordinary price environment.

2.2. France and Italy were the most exposed EU importers

Among EU member states, Italy experienced the most dramatic transformation: its electricity imports from outside the EU surged from a mere €25.2 million in 2015 to a peak of €6.79 billion, before settling at €2.56 billion in 2025 (an increase of 10,049% from first to last year). France saw imports peak at €5.41 billion, although by 2025 they had fallen back to €208 million — close to the 2015 starting point — suggesting a full normalisation for this country. Germany rose from €159 million to €1.31 billion, while Denmark climbed from €130 million to €799 million (+512.5%).

Source: Top reporters by value

2.3. Export values also spiked, but Germany's trajectory reversed

On the export side, Germany saw its electricity exports peak at €4.42 billion before falling back to €1.02 billion in 2025 — below the 2015 level of €751 million. This reversal is consistent with the collapse of German baseload power generation following the shutdown of its remaining nuclear fleet and the disruption of gas-fired generation. France became the EU's largest electricity exporter, growing from €954 million to €2.28 billion (+139.3%), reflecting its substantial nuclear generation capacity. Slovenia (+544.6%) and Belgium (from €65 thousand to €315 million) showed notable expansions from smaller starting bases.

Source: Top reporters by value

3. Shifting Partners, Rising Import Concentration, and Evolving Specialisation

3.1. Switzerland and the United Kingdom remained the dominant trade partners

Throughout the period, Switzerland and the United Kingdom consistently featured as the EU's most important bilateral electricity partners. Switzerland was the EU's top export destination, rising from €1.44 billion to €2.36 billion (+63.4%) with a peak of €7.62 billion. The United Kingdom featured prominently on both sides of the trade ledger: EU imports from the UK grew from €143 million to €1.16 billion (+710%, peak €4.74 billion), while EU exports to the UK grew from €1.01 billion to €2.35 billion (+132.1%).

Source: Top partners by value

3.2. Western Balkan countries emerged as increasingly important trade counterparties

Several Western Balkan nations — Serbia, Montenegro, Albania, and North Macedonia — significantly increased their presence in EU electricity trade. Serbia became a major bilateral partner on both sides: imports from Serbia grew from €391 million to €1.14 billion, while exports to Serbia grew from €560 million to €1.12 billion. Montenegro's role as an EU import source expanded dramatically from €26 million to €253 million (peak €1.02 billion). These trends reflect deepening grid integration between the EU and the Western Balkans, as well as the region's hydropower-driven export capacity.

3.3. Import concentration rose sharply while export markets diversified

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for EU electricity imports increased from 1,458 to 2,384 (+63.5%), indicating that the EU's import base became significantly more concentrated over the period. This rising concentration heightens supply-dependency risk, particularly as the UK and Serbia grew to dominate the import side. In contrast, the HHI for exports declined from 2,473 to 1,830 (−26.0%), suggesting that the EU diversified its electricity export destinations — from a relatively concentrated set of partners toward a broader range including Western Balkan and other markets.

Source: Concentration (HHI)

3.4. Specialisation patterns reflect generation and interconnection advantages

Among EU member states, Bulgaria (RSCA = 0.74), Greece (0.55), Slovenia (0.51), Slovakia (0.47), and Denmark (0.42) displayed the strongest revealed comparative advantage in electricity exports in 2025. These countries benefit from a combination of low-cost generation (hydropower, nuclear) and strategic interconnection positions. At the opposite end, Malta (RSCA = −0.99), Luxembourg (−0.77), Italy (−0.69), and Belgium (−0.50) were the most import-dependent. Italy's position as the least specialised large economy is consistent with its persistent electricity import needs and limited interconnection-driven export capacity.

Source: Specialisation

Conclusion

The EU's extra-EU electricity trade over 2015–2025 was shaped above all by the explosive price dynamics of the 2021–2022 energy crisis. While physical volumes of traded electricity grew moderately — imports by 32%, exports by 21% — trade values multiplied far more dramatically, with import values ultimately rising by 316% and export values by 126%. The EU's electricity trade surplus shrank from €1.8 billion to barely €0.2 billion, and at its worst point during the crisis swung to a deficit of nearly €5.9 billion.

Structurally, the period saw a deepening of trade ties with the United Kingdom and Western Balkan nations, alongside a notable rise in import-side concentration (HHI +64%). France consolidated its position as the EU's primary electricity exporter, while Germany's role diminished — a likely consequence of its nuclear phase-out. By 2025, prices had normalised substantially from their 2022 peaks but remained well above pre-crisis levels, suggesting a permanently higher price baseline for cross-border electricity in Europe.

Looking ahead, the EU's electricity trade position will be shaped by the continued expansion of renewable generation, the pace of grid interconnection buildout with neighbouring regions, and the evolving regulatory framework under the European Green Deal — all of which will determine whether the Union can restore a more comfortable net-exporter position or faces continued structural import dependency.