Market evolution: Coal tar (CN 2706) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of EU extra-EU trade in coal tar and other mineral tars classified under CN 2706 over the 2015–2025 period. The product covers tar distilled from coal, lignite, or peat, as well as other mineral tars, whether or not dehydrated or partially distilled, including reconstituted tars. This is a niche industrial input derived largely from coke-oven operations and coal processing, with applications in road construction, chemical feedstock, and carbon black production.

The decade under review reveals a market shaped by three intertwined dynamics: a striking divergence between trade volumes and trade values, a fundamental geopolitical reorientation of both supply and demand, and a reshuffling of intra-EU specialisation patterns. Taken together, these trends paint the picture of a market undergoing structural transformation rather than merely cyclical fluctuation.

1. A Market Divided: Surging Import Volumes Against Collapsing Trade Values

EU export volumes and values declined sharply while unit prices rose

The EU's extra-EU exports of CN 2706 contracted dramatically over the period. Export value fell from €12.36 million to €4.99 million (−59.7%), while export volume collapsed from 27,933 tonnes to just 5,898 tonnes (−78.9%). Counterintuitively, the unit export price nearly doubled, rising from €442/t to €845/t (+91.0%). This suggests that the EU retained only higher-value or more specialised export flows, while lower-value bulk shipments were progressively eliminated.

EU import volumes surged more than threefold even as import values fell

The most striking structural divergence appears on the import side. Import value declined from €12.22 million to €3.91 million (−68.0%), yet import volumes grew from 40,374 tonnes to 135,329 tonnes (+235.2%). The implied unit import price collapsed from €300/t to just €29/t (−90.4%). This is a dramatic repricing: the EU is now importing vastly more coal tar by weight, but at a fraction of the former cost.

The EU's trade balance shifted from near-parity to a modest surplus

In 2015, the trade balance was nearly flat at +€145,000. By 2025, it stood at +€1.07 million in the EU's favour. However, this headline figure masks enormous volatility: the balance swung between a deficit of −€11.3 million and a surplus of +€38.0 million at various points during the decade. The current modest surplus reflects the fact that while the EU imports far more coal tar by volume, the remaining exports command substantially higher unit prices.

2. Geopolitical Reorientation of Supply Chains and Destination Markets

Turkey and Russia disappeared from the EU's import supply map

The most dramatic shift on the import side was the complete withdrawal of two previously significant suppliers. Turkey, which was the EU's largest import source in 2015 at €10.67 million (peaking at €17.64 million at its height), fell to zero by 2025. Similarly, the Russian Federation declined from €381,000 to zero. These two exits alone account for the bulk of the decline in import values.

Ukraine and the Western Balkans emerged as the new supply backbone

With Turkey and Russia exiting, Ukraine and Bosnia and Herzegovina absorbed much of the market share. Ukraine grew from €845,000 to €2.05 million, while Bosnia and Herzegovina surged from a negligible €18,000 to €1.76 million. This eastward and south-eastward reorientation of supply chains may reflect both geopolitical sanctions dynamics and the relative cost competitiveness of producers in these countries.

EU exporters pivoted from China toward South Korea

On the export side, the most notable shift was the near-total disappearance of China as a destination. China accounted for €2.82 million in 2015 but fell to just €43 by 2025 (−100.0%). Meanwhile, the Republic of Korea surged from €123,000 to €2.22 million (+1,701%), becoming the EU's single largest export market by value in 2025. Canada remained the second-largest destination at €2.61 million, though well below its 2015 level. The United States also declined from €2.09 million to €1.07 million (−48.8%).

Price shocks accompanied the geopolitical shifts

The volatility data reveal that these reorientations were far from smooth. A major price shock was detected in imports from Ukraine centred on 2020, with an abnormality score of 232.9 and a price shift of +1,869.7%, representing 28.1% of total import value that year. On the export side, price shocks were detected for China in 2022 (+60.3% shift) and for the United States in 2022 (+115.2% shift). The high coefficient of variation for Ukraine imports (0.87) and the United Kingdom imports (1.77) further underscores the instability of certain supply relationships.

3. Diverging Internal EU Specialisation and Concentration Patterns

Poland and Finland lead EU coal tar specialisation

The specialisation data for 2025 show that coal tar production and export remain concentrated in a handful of EU member states. Poland stands out with a Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA) of 0.79 and an RCA of 8.64, indicating very strong specialisation. Finland follows (RSCA 0.71), with Slovakia (0.52), Austria (0.32), and Croatia (0.17) also showing positive specialisation.

Large EU economies show negative specialisation

Conversely, the least specialised reporters include Spain (RSCA −0.99), France (−0.93), Belgium (−0.74), and Czechia (−0.68). Despite their large shares of total EU trade in CN 2706, these countries are net importers or serve primarily as transit hubs. Spain, for instance, is one of the EU's top importers by value (€28.4 million in 2025, +166.2% from 2015), while being extremely unspecialised in production (production share of just 0.04%).

Import sources diversified while export destinations became more concentrated

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) confirms a notable divergence in market structure. For imports, the HHI by value fell from 7,727 to 4,980 (−35.6%), indicating a shift from concentrated (near-monopolistic Turkish supply) to a more diversified supplier base. For exports, the HHI rose from 1,899 to 3,319 (+74.7%), suggesting that EU export flows have become more concentrated on fewer destination markets — consistent with the pivot toward South Korea and Canada.

Conclusion

The EU coal tar market (CN 2706) underwent a fundamental transformation between 2015 and 2025. Rather than a simple decline, the period was characterised by three simultaneous shifts: a dramatic repricing of imports that saw unit prices fall by over 90%, a geopolitical reorientation of trade flows that replaced Turkish and Russian suppliers with Ukrainian and Balkan alternatives while pivoting export demand from China to South Korea, and a reshaping of internal EU specialisation centred on Poland as the dominant producer and exporter.

The combined effect is a market that is structurally different from its 2015 configuration. The EU now imports far larger volumes at much lower prices, exports smaller volumes at higher prices, and sources its imports from a more diversified — though politically and economically variable — set of partners. The volatility inherent in these new trade relationships, as evidenced by recurring price shocks and high coefficients of variation for several key partners, suggests that the market's reorientation remains incomplete and may be subject to further disruption.