Market evolution: Petroleum residues (CN 2713) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyses the trade performance of the European Union in CN 2713 — a heading that bundles petroleum coke (calcined and non-calcined), petroleum bitumen, and other petroleum residues — over the period 2015–2025. The product group sits at the intersection of refining by-products, road-construction inputs, and carbon-intensive industrial feedstocks, making its trade patterns sensitive to energy-market cycles, infrastructure investment, and decarbonisation policy.

Over the decade, the EU consolidated its position as a net exporter of petroleum residues, with the trade surplus rising from €471 million to €1,225 million (+160%). This outcome was driven by two simultaneous shifts: a contraction in import volumes and a steady expansion of export volumes, compounded by a strong price recovery after the 2020 downturn. The following sections unpack the structural, geographical, and product-level dynamics behind these headline figures.

1. From import contraction to export-led surplus: the macro trade shift

1.1 The EU's trade surplus more than doubled in value

Between 2015 and 2025 the EU's trade balance in CN 2713 evolved as follows:

Source: General Overview

The most striking feature is the divergence between volume trajectories: export tonnage grew by about a quarter while import tonnage shrank by a third. Because exports are concentrated in higher-value segments (particularly bitumen and, cyclically, calcined coke), the value gap widened even faster than volumes alone would suggest.

1.2 Import volumes peaked early and fell sharply

EU imports of CN 2713 stood at 8,037 kt in 2015 — their highest level in the entire sample — and then entered a sustained decline, reaching a trough of 4,647 kt in 2020 before partially recovering to 5,346 kt in 2025. The contraction reflects a combination of factors: the run-down of Venezuelan heavy-crude supplies (a key feedstock for petroleum coke), the shift in EU refining economics, and post-2020 efforts to reduce dependency on carbon-intensive imports.

1.3 The 2022 energy shock distorted prices and values

The global energy crisis of 2022 left a clear imprint on CN 2713 trade. Import values surged to €2,063 million — nearly double the 2015 level — driven almost entirely by price effects (the import unit value reached €352/t, the maximum in the series). Export unit values also spiked to €395/t that year. By 2024–2025 prices had receded, but they settled well above pre-crisis levels, suggesting a structural repricing of the product group.

2. Shifting supply chains: partners, geography, and concentration

2.1 The United States remained the dominant import supplier, but the landscape diversified

The US held its position as the EU's largest source of imports throughout the decade, with trade value hovering around €580 million in both 2015 and 2025. However, its share of total imports fell as other partners grew.

Source: Top partners by value

The most dramatic shift is Türkiye's emergence as a major supplier: from €5 million in 2015 to €217 million in 2025. This likely reflects Türkiye's growing role as a refining hub and re-export platform at the crossroads of Middle Eastern and Central Asian crude flows. Conversely, Venezuela's near-disappearance from EU import statistics (−96.7%) mirrors the country's broader oil-sector collapse and sanctions regime.

2.2 EU exports deepened in North Africa and shifted within Europe

On the export side, the EU's main outlets were stable but the rankings shifted:

Source: Top partners by value

Morocco stands out as the fastest-growing export destination (+259%), consistent with the country's large-scale road and infrastructure programmes. The UK — already the largest partner in 2015 — nearly doubled its intake, suggesting continued reliance on EU-supplied bitumen and coke despite Brexit. Meanwhile, EU exports to the United States fell by 58%, consistent with the US developing its own domestic supply capacity from shale-oil refining.

2.3 Import concentration fell, while export markets remained fragmented

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for import value declined from 4,336 to 3,257 (−24.9%), confirming that the EU's import base has diversified away from the near-duopoly of the US and Venezuela that characterised the mid-2010s.

Source: Market concentration

Export markets were already low-concentrated in 2015 (HHI ≈ 794) and remained so, reflecting the wide geographical spread of EU bitumen and coke customers across North Africa, the UK, and Scandinavia.

2.4 Specialisation is concentrated in southern and eastern EU members

Among EU member states, specialisation in CN 2713 exports (measured by RSCA) is heavily skewed:

Greece and Lithuania are by far the most specialised, with RCA values above 9 — an exceptionally high degree of export concentration in this product group. This is consistent with Greece's large refining sector (oriented toward Mediterranean and North African markets) and Lithuania's Mazeikiai refinery (now ORLEN Lietuva), which produces significant volumes of petroleum coke and bitumen for export.

3. Product-level divergence: bitumen dominates exports, coke drives imports

3.1 Petroleum bitumen is the EU's main export product by far

Breaking down CN 2713 into its four sub-headings reveals a clear structural asymmetry between imports and exports. In 2025, the product mix was:

Source: Product segment breakdown

Petroleum bitumen (271320) accounts for the lion's share of EU exports — 4,586 kt in 2025, or 54% of total CN 2713 export tonnage. Its export value stood at €1,596 million, making it the single most important product line. EU bitumen exports are highly price-competitive thanks to the continent's dense refining infrastructure and proximity to North African and Middle Eastern construction markets.

3.2 Non-calcined petroleum coke imports have contracted sharply

The decline in EU import volumes is almost entirely explained by the contraction of non-calcined petroleum coke (271311) imports, which fell from 6,466 kt in 2015 to 3,703 kt in 2025 (−43%). This is the largest single-volume product in the import basket, and its decline tracks the loss of Venezuelan heavy-crude feedstock, evolving EU refinery slates, and the early effects of the EU Emissions Trading System on coke-intensive industrial processes (e.g., aluminium smelting, cement kilns).

3.3 Calcined coke is the most price-volatile and high-value segment

Calcined petroleum coke (271312) commands a substantial price premium: in 2025 its import unit value stood at €575/t versus €101/t for non-calcined coke and €421/t for bitumen. Calcined coke is used primarily in aluminium smelting anodes, making its price sensitive to aluminium market dynamics and supply disruptions in major producing countries (China, India, the US).

The data reveals extreme price volatility in this segment. Import prices for calcined coke peaked at €1,035/t in 2022 (the energy-crisis year) and at €897/t in 2023, compared with a pre-crisis level of €301–305/t in 2016–2017. Export prices for calcined coke show an even more erratic pattern, reaching €1,246/t in 2024 before retreating to €473/t in 2025 — suggesting that the EU's calcined-coke export business is thin and subject to large year-to-year swings.

3.4 Price shocks clustered around geopolitical and energy-market events

The volatility analysis identifies three major price shocks:

Source: Supply shocks

The UK import price shock of 2018 (abnormality 21.9, +144%) coincides with the period of sterling weakness and Brexit-related supply-chain uncertainty. The Türkiye shock in 2019 (abnormality 19.9, +315%) likely reflects the lira depreciation and a sharp reorientation of Turkish trade flows. The China export shock in 2021 (abnormality 15.8, +168%) overlaps with the post-COVID commodity super-cycle and China's energy shortages.

Among individual trading partners, Argentina and Bosnia and Herzegovina show the highest coefficients of variation in import flows (≈1.0 and 1.3 respectively), confirming that some smaller supply relationships are highly episodic. On the export side, China (CV = 0.91) and Togo (CV = 0.74) are the most volatile destinations.

Conclusion

The EU's trade in petroleum residues (CN 2713) over 2015–2025 tells a story of structural rebalancing. The bloc has shifted from a volume-heavy import posture — dominated by non-calcined petroleum coke from the US and Venezuela — toward a higher-value, bitumen-led export model oriented toward North Africa and the UK. The trade surplus more than doubled in value, underpinned by a 33% contraction in import volumes and a 26% expansion of export volumes.

Three forces shaped this evolution: (1) the collapse of Venezuelan supply chains, which removed a major source of cheap non-calcined coke from the EU's import basket; (2) the 2022 energy crisis, which repriced the entire product group upward and temporarily inflated trade values; and (3) diversification on both sides of the ledger — imports sourced increasingly from Türkiye and Norway, exports channelled increasingly toward Morocco and the UK.

Looking ahead, the EU's tightening carbon-pricing framework and declining heavy-industry demand for petroleum coke suggest that import volumes will continue to erode. Bitumen exports, by contrast, may prove more resilient, as Mediterranean and North African infrastructure demand remains robust — though the long-term transition away from fossil-fuel-based road materials poses a structural question for the next decade.