Market evolution: Other nuts (CN 0802) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the trade dynamics of the European Union in CN 0802 — Other nuts, fresh or dried, whether or not shelled or peeled (excluding coconuts, Brazil nuts and cashew nuts) over the period 2015–2025. The product group covers a broad range of tree nuts including almonds, hazelnuts, walnuts, pistachios, chestnuts, pine nuts, and macadamia nuts. The scope and definitions confirm that CN 0802 is a residual heading bundling multiple six-digit sub-codes.

Over the decade, the EU's trade position in this category has been defined by a structural and widening trade deficit, surging import volumes, declining exports, and significant shifts in supplier geography. While EU domestic production roughly doubled in volume, it has not reduced the bloc's overwhelming import reliance. The following three sections unpack these dynamics in detail.

1. A Widening Structural Deficit Driven by Soaring Import Volumes

1.1 Imports have grown far more than production can offset

The EU's trade balance in nuts deteriorated markedly between 2015 and 2025. The deficit widened from €4.35 billion in 2015 to €5.62 billion in 2025, a 29% increase. This was driven almost entirely by the import side:

Source: General Overview — trade

Import volumes surged by over 298,000 tonnes (+52.2%), while import value grew more moderately at +22.9%, reflecting a 19.3% decline in average unit import prices. This price compression indicates that the EU has benefited from cheaper supply — likely through increased sourcing from lower-cost origins and larger volumes of unprocessed (in-shell) nuts.

1.2 EU production has doubled in volume but remains insufficient

According to PRODCOM production data, EU domestic production of nuts under CN 0802 grew from 314,000 tonnes in 2015 to 600,000 tonnes in 2025 — a striking +91.1% increase in physical volume. However, production value remained essentially flat at around €1 billion (from €1.0B to €0.99B, −1.0%). This disconnect between volume and value suggests production growth has concentrated in lower-value segments (likely walnuts and chestnuts), and that unit production prices have been falling.

Despite this near-doubling of output, the net import reliance remained stubbornly high at 83.1% in 2015 and 83.8% in 2025, barely changing. Demand for nuts has simply outpaced domestic supply growth, and the EU remains overwhelmingly dependent on third-country imports for its consumption.

1.3 The composition of imports has shifted toward walnuts and pistachios

A closer look at the product segment breakdown reveals that the import surge was not evenly distributed across nut types:

The most dramatic growth occurred in walnuts (shelled, +147%) and pistachios (shelled, +352%). Walnuts have become the fastest-growing import category by volume, likely reflecting rising consumer demand for walnuts as a health food and increased supply from California, Chile, and China. Pistachio imports have also surged, driven both by in-shell consumption and by food-industry demand for shelled product.

2. A Dramatic Reorientation of Supplier Geographies

2.1 The United States consolidated its dominance; Chile emerged as a major partner

The top import partners show a pronounced concentration of EU imports around a few key origins:

The United States remained by far the EU's largest nut supplier, accounting for over half of total extra-EU imports by value. Its share grew as imports rose by 32.5% to €3.3 billion — reflecting both rising volumes and the continued dominance of US almond production (California supplies roughly 80% of global almond output).

Chile experienced the most spectacular growth (+271%), rising from €177M to €656M. This is consistent with the rapid expansion of Chilean walnut production, which has made Chile the world's second-largest walnut exporter. Chilean walnuts complement the US almond supply and have helped diversify the EU's sourcing.

Conversely, Australia (−68%) and Iran (−45.4%) saw sharp declines. Australia's drop likely reflects drought-related production shortfalls in macadamias and almonds, while Iran's decline may be linked to geopolitical factors, trade restrictions, and increased competition from US pistachios.

2.2 EU export markets have contracted and reoriented

On the export side, the picture is one of contraction and geographic reorientation:

The United Kingdom — once the EU's largest extra-EU export destination — saw a 60.6% collapse in nut imports from the EU. This is very likely a direct consequence of Brexit: the UK's departure from the EU Customs Union and Single Market introduced new customs procedures, rules of origin, and potential tariffs that disrupted previously frictionless trade. The drop from €212M to €84M is among the most striking trade-diversion effects visible in this dataset.

The United States also saw a dramatic 74.6% decline in EU nut imports, possibly reflecting increased US domestic self-sufficiency in almonds and walnuts, or trade-policy friction.

2.3 Within the EU, import and export concentration patterns diverge

Among EU Member States:

Imports:

Poland's import growth of +514% stands out, likely reflecting Poland's emergence as a major processing and confectionery hub within the EU, as well as the broader growth of the Polish food industry.

Exports:

Export declines were widespread across the major EU exporters, with Greece being a notable exception (+124%). Greece's growth aligns with its comparative advantage in pistachios and chestnuts, products where the RCA data confirms Greece holds significant revealed comparative advantage (RCA 2.12).

3. Market Concentration, Price Shocks, and Evolving EU Vulnerability

3.1 Import-side concentration increased while export-side concentration fell

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) reveals divergent trends in market concentration:

Import concentration rose modestly, reflecting the growing dominance of the United States and Chile at the expense of more fragmented smaller suppliers. An HHI above 2,500 is generally considered "highly concentrated"; at 3,435, EU nut imports are firmly in that territory. This means the EU's supply base is geographically narrow — a potential vulnerability.

On the export side, concentration fell sharply (−39%), indicating that the EU's nut exports have become more diversified across destination markets. However, this diversification occurred alongside an overall decline in export value, so it partly reflects the loss of the dominant UK market rather than a positive expansion into new ones.

3.2 Price volatility and a notable supply shock in Turkish exports

The volatility analysis reveals that several key trade relationships exhibit significant price instability. Partners with the highest coefficient of variation (CV) in import value include:

China and Iran show the highest import-side volatility, suggesting unstable supply conditions or significant price swings. For the UK export relationship, the CV of 0.89 reflects the dramatic post-Brexit collapse rather than seasonal fluctuation.

The most notable shock event detected was a price shock in EU nut exports to Türkiye in 2018, with an abnormality score of 2.8 and a price shift of +58.5%. This coincides with the Turkish lira crisis of 2018, which caused the lira to lose roughly 30% of its value against the euro. The resulting currency depreciation would have made EU-origin nuts significantly more expensive in Turkish lira terms, while simultaneously creating arbitrage opportunities that may have distorted reported trade values.

3.3 EU nut trade has become more integrated into global markets but not more autonomous

The vulnerability indicators paint a nuanced picture:

The EU's trade intensity — the share of domestic consumption accounted for by imports — remained near 93%, meaning that virtually all nuts consumed in the EU either cross a border as imports or are produced domestically with heavy reliance on imported inputs. Export propensity fell by 11 percentage points, indicating that the EU is re-exporting a smaller fraction of the nuts it processes — a sign that more processing output is being absorbed domestically rather than traded outward.

Taken together, these indicators confirm that the EU's nut market is deeply integrated into global supply chains and structurally dependent on external suppliers, particularly the United States for almonds and increasingly Chile and China for walnuts. The doubling of domestic production has not materially changed this vulnerability.

Conclusion

Over 2015–2025, the EU's trade in CN 0802 nuts has been characterised by three dominant dynamics: a widening structural trade deficit fuelled by surging import volumes (especially walnuts and pistachios); a dramatic reorientation of supplier geography — with Chile's meteoric rise and the post-Brexit collapse of UK-bound exports standing out as the sharpest shifts; and a growing import-side concentration around a small number of dominant suppliers, particularly the United States.

Despite a near-doubling of domestic production in physical terms, the EU's net import reliance has remained essentially unchanged at approximately 84%. This structural dependency, combined with high trade intensity and elevated supply-side volatility from partners like China, Iran, and Chile, suggests that the EU remains exposed to external supply shocks in a category of products whose consumption is growing steadily on the back of health and dietary trends.

The decline in export propensity and the collapse of UK-bound trade point to an EU nut sector that is increasingly oriented inward — processing imported raw materials for domestic consumption rather than serving as a re-export hub. For policymakers concerned with food supply security, the data underscores the importance of continued investment in domestic production and diversified sourcing strategies.