Market evolution: Almonds (CN 080212) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyses the trade dynamics of shelled fresh or dried almonds (Customs Code 080212) within the European Union for the period 2015–2025. Over this decade, the EU market exhibited significant structural shifts, characterised by diverging trends between trade values and volumes, evolving partnerships, and a notable expansion of domestic production. The analysis reveals a market navigating price deflation, changing supply chains, and a persistent, though slightly improving, trade deficit. This examination is based on annual trade data between the EU and non-EU countries.

I. Trade Value and Volume Divergence: A Decade of Deflation

A dominant feature of the EU almond market over the period has been the significant decoupling of trade values from physical volumes, primarily driven by a sustained decline in unit prices.

Import Prices Collapsed While Volumes Grew

EU imports of shelled almonds increased in volume but decreased sharply in value. Between 2015 and 2025, import quantity rose by 24.2%, from 222,592 tonnes to 276,465 tonnes. Concurrently, import value fell by 19.1%, from €1.848 billion to €1.495 billion. This contradiction is explained by a 34.9% collapse in the average import price, which dropped from €8,301 per tonne in 2015 to €5,406 per tonne in 2025.

Export Performance Under Price Pressure

EU exports followed a similar pattern. The quantity exported remained relatively stable, edging up 2.2% from 23,451 tonnes to 23,978 tonnes. However, the export value contracted by 29.2%, from €235.5 million to €166.7 million, driven by a 30.8% decline in export unit prices.

A Persisting but Narrowing Trade Deficit

The combination of these trends resulted in a consistent trade deficit. In 2015, the EU had a deficit of €1.612 billion. By 2025, this had improved by 17.6% to €1.328 billion. This amelioration is almost entirely attributable to the faster price erosion on the import side compared to the export side.

II. Market Structure and Shifting Supply Chains

The structure of the EU almond market is shaped by a high dependence on external suppliers, a rapidly growing domestic production base concentrated in the Iberian Peninsula, and a diversifying export portfolio.

Extreme Import Reliance and Concentration

The EU remains heavily reliant on imports, with net import reliance at approximately 83.8% in 2025. This reliance has remained stable, fluctuating only slightly between 78.4% and 83.8% over the decade. The import market is highly concentrated, as measured by the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI). The HHI for imports increased by 20.9% to 8,964 in 2025, indicating that sourcing became more focused on fewer partners, primarily the United States.

Major Partners: A Decline in Diversity

The United States solidified its position as the dominant supplier, accounting for the vast majority of EU imports. While its import value declined by 10.5%, its share remained overwhelming. In contrast, other traditional suppliers like Australia and the United Kingdom saw dramatic declines in their export values to the EU, falling by 73.2% and 98.0% respectively.

Domestic Production Boom and Specialisation

EU almond production nearly doubled in volume over the period, growing by 91.1% from 314,000 tonnes to 600,000 tonnes. This expansion was predominantly driven by Spain, which holds a Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA) index of 0.80, signifying extreme specialisation. Spain's production value represented over half of the EU total in 2025. Portugal also demonstrated high specialisation (RSCA of 0.61).

Export Market Diversification

While the UK and US remained top export destinations, their shares declined. This was offset by dramatic growth in exports to other markets. Export values to Egypt and Türkiye surged by 3,364.5% and 732.2% respectively. Consequently, the HHI for exports fell by 60.0% to 1,071, reflecting a much more diversified export base by 2025.

III. Price Volatility and External Vulnerabilities

The market has been characterised by notable price volatility in certain trade relationships, while underlying structural indicators point to a high degree of economic openness and specific vulnerabilities.

High Price Volatility in Niche Trade Corridors

Analysis of price volatility (measured by the coefficient of variation) reveals that while trade with major partners like the US is relatively stable, flows with smaller partners are highly volatile. EU imports from Afghanistan and Viet Nam exhibited extremely high price volatility (CV >1.0). Similarly, exports to Egypt and Ceuta showed high volatility (CV >1.2).

Identified Supply Shocks

The data identifies specific, abnormal price events. The most extreme was a price shock in exports to Sierra Leone in 2023, though its negligible value share (0.0%) limits its market-wide impact. More significant were a price shock in exports to Canada in 2017 (2.3% value share) and an import price shock from North Macedonia in 2020.

Trade Intensity Highlights Economic Openness

The EU almond market is highly integrated into global trade flows. The trade intensity ratio (imports + exports relative to production + consumption) remained very high, at 92.9% in 2025. This indicates that nearly all almonds produced or consumed in the EU are involved in international trade. Conversely, the export propensity (exports as a share of production) fell from 58.7% in 2015 to 52.2% in 2025, suggesting that a growing share of the expanded EU production is being absorbed domestically.

Conclusion

The EU almond market from 2015 to 2025 was defined by a fundamental tension: soaring physical consumption (as evidenced by rising import volumes) met with a prolonged period of global price deflation. This squeezed the trade deficit but did not eliminate it. Structurally, the market underwent a significant transformation, with domestic production—led by Spain—nearly doubling, though it still covers less than a fifth of consumption. Supply chains became more concentrated on the import side, heavily reliant on the United States, but export destinations diversified markedly. The market remains fundamentally vulnerable due to its high import reliance and exposure to price volatility in key corridors. The growth in EU production offers a long-term pathway to reduced external dependence, but the near-complete integration of the sector into global trade flows means external price and supply shocks will continue to be a defining feature of this market.