Market evolution: Shelled walnuts (CN 080232) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyzes the trade dynamics of shelled walnuts (CN 080232) within the European Union between 2015 and 2025. Over this decade, the EU's trade profile for this product has undergone a significant transformation. The bloc has consistently been a large net importer, but the scale of its dependency has expanded considerably, driven by surging demand and shifting global supply patterns. This report will detail the widening trade deficit, the evolving role of key trading partners, and the underlying structural factors that define the market's current state.

1. A Widening Trade Deficit Fueled by Surging Imports and Stagnant Exports

The most prominent trend in the EU's shelled walnut market is the dramatic expansion of its trade deficit with non-EU countries. Between the first and last year of the data window, the deficit in value terms grew by 80.9%, reaching over €849 million. This is the result of two divergent paths: rapidly increasing imports and declining exports.

Imports have grown massively in volume and value

The EU's import quantity of shelled walnuts increased by 146.9% over the period, rising from 59,835 tonnes to 147,712 tonnes. This near-tripling of import volumes signals a substantial increase in EU consumption that domestic production could not meet. While the average import price fell by 31.7% from €8,889 per tonne to €6,075 per tonne, the sheer increase in volume caused the total import value to still grow by 68.7% to €897 million. This indicates that the EU market has absorbed significantly more walnuts, albeit at lower average prices than at the start of the period.

EU exports have contracted in both volume and value

In contrast to the import surge, the EU's exports of shelled walnuts declined. Export volumes fell by 13.9% to 5,991 tonnes, and the average export price also dropped by 10.4%. Consequently, the total export value decreased by 22.9% to €48.3 million. This contraction, particularly in value, suggests that EU producers and re-exporters have faced increasing competitive pressure, likely from lower-priced imports, reducing their footprint in third-country markets.

2. Shifting Geographies of Supply and Demand

The surge in EU imports has not been sourced uniformly. The period has seen a dramatic reconfiguration of the bloc's top suppliers, with traditional partners growing and a major new player emerging. Meanwhile, the concentration of the export market has remained higher, with the United Kingdom maintaining dominance.

The United States solidified its role as the primary supplier

The United States remained the EU's largest single source of shelled walnut imports. Import values from the US grew by 51.5% from €280 million to €424 million. This growth, however, was outpaced in percentage terms by other key suppliers like Chile (value +102.3% to €215 million) and Ukraine (value +67.0% to €100 million). The stability of the US share underscores its established, reliable supply chain for the EU market.

China emerged as a major and volatile supplier

The most striking change in the import landscape has been the rise of China. The value of EU imports from China skyrocketed by 1,931% from €5.4 million to €109 million. This exponential growth transformed China from a minor supplier to a significant one. However, this trade relationship is characterized by high volatility; the coefficient of variation for China is 1.30, indicating very high year-to-year fluctuation in trade values.

The UK remains the dominant export destination despite a declining share

For EU exports, the United Kingdom has consistently been the most important partner, accounting for over half of total export value. However, its share has eroded, with export values to the UK falling by 30.6% from €37.8 million to €26.3 million. This decline occurred despite the EU's overall export contraction, indicating a particularly sharp fall in this traditional market. Switzerland and Norway were the only two major partners that saw increased export values from the EU.

3. Structural Market Characteristics and Persistent Dependency

Beyond the headline trade flows, the EU's shelled walnut market exhibits specific structural traits. These include a high and stable import reliance, a moderately concentrated sourcing pattern, and a clear internal specialization divide among Member States.

The EU remains heavily reliant on external supply

The net import reliance (import volume minus export volume, as a share of apparent consumption) was 83.8% in 2025, virtually unchanged from 83.1% in 2015. This near-constant figure, despite the massive volume growth, confirms that the increase in EU demand was entirely met by imports. The EU is structurally dependent on non-EU producers for its walnut supply.

Production growth has not offset import dependency

While not directly part of the trade flow, the context of EU production is essential. EU production of shelled walnuts (in kg) increased by 91.1% from 314 million kg to 600 million kg. However, this domestic production growth was insufficient to close the gap created by rising demand, leading to the continued and expanding role of imports.

Sourcing is moderately diversified but with high volatility in new partners

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for import values fell from 3,453 to 3,088, indicating a slight reduction in concentration and increased diversification of suppliers. However, this diversification includes partners with very high price volatility, such as China (CV: 1.30) and Türkiye (CV: 1.52). The traditional, lower-volatility suppliers (US CV: 0.24, Chile CV: 0.30) remain the core of the supply base.

Internal specialization within the EU varies widely

An analysis of specialization reveals a stark divide. Romania (RSCA: 0.69) and several other Central and Eastern European countries show strong comparative advantages in walnut production and export. Conversely, countries like Ireland and Finland have virtually no export specialization. Germany, while the EU's largest import market, also has a notable specialization index (RSCA: 0.31), reflecting its significant role as a processing and re-export hub.

Conclusion

The period from 2015 to 2025 has seen the EU's shelled walnut market become characterized by a structural and growing dependency on imports. This dependency, quantified by a stable net import reliance of approximately 84%, has been fueled by consumption growth that far outpaced the expansion of domestic production. The import side of the market has become more geographically diversified, with the explosive growth of China being the most notable dynamic, albeit one accompanied by high volatility. The export side, in contrast, has contracted and remains heavily reliant on the UK market, which itself has shrunk. These trends paint a picture of a large, open EU market that is a critical destination for global walnut producers, particularly those in the Americas and, increasingly, in China, while its own export capacity has diminished in relative and absolute terms.