Market evolution: Shelled almonds (CN 08021290) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyzes the trade dynamics of shelled almonds (customs code 08021290) for the European Union over the period from 2015 to 2025. The EU represents a massive market for this product, characterized by a persistent and large structural trade deficit. While the EU consumes far more shelled almonds than it produces, the underlying market has undergone significant shifts. The period is defined by a fundamental transition from a seller's to a buyer's market, marked by plummeting global prices, a realignment of supply sources, and notable increases in EU production capacity, particularly in Spain. This analysis synthesizes the provided data to explain the primary forces shaping this market.

I. The EU's Transition to a Buyer's Market: Volume Growth Amidst Price Collapse

The decade under review saw a dramatic shift in the economics of the EU shelled almond market. While import volumes grew steadily, import values declined significantly due to a severe price deflation, fundamentally altering the market's dynamics.

Import volumes surged while values contracted

The EU's demand for shelled almonds, measured by quantity, has been resilient. Total imports increased from 220,822 tonnes in 2015 to 274,709 tonnes in 2025, a rise of 24.4% (General Overview). This growth indicates sustained consumer and industrial demand within the bloc. However, this volume expansion occurred in a context of a global price collapse. The average import price plummeted from 8,324 €/t in 2015 to 5,403 €/t in 2025, a 35.1% decrease. Consequently, the total import value fell by 19.3%, from €1.84 billion to €1.48 billion. This divergence signals a clear shift to a buyer's market, where the EU benefited from favorable terms of trade despite increasing its procurement.

Export performance eroded due to price and volume pressures

The EU's export segment tells a different story. Export volumes remained relatively stable, growing marginally by 0.9% to 23,585 tonnes. However, like imports, export prices suffered an even steeper decline of 30.9%, falling to 6,947 €/t. This price erosion, combined with the stable volume, led to a 30.3% drop in export value to €164 million. This suggests that EU exporters (predominantly from Spain) faced intense competitive pressure and could not maintain their margins in the face of depressed global prices.

The trade deficit improved, yet structural dependence persists

The combination of these trends resulted in a narrowing of the EU's trade deficit in value terms. The deficit shrank by 17.6%, from -€1.60 billion in 2015 to -€1.32 billion in 2025 (Autonomy & Vulnerability). Despite this improvement, the EU's net import reliance remained exceptionally high at 83.8% in 2025. This metric underscores that the EU remains fundamentally dependent on external suppliers to meet its almond needs, with only a minor improvement from 2015's 83.1%.

II. Shifting Supply Sources: Consolidation Around the United States and Diversification Attempts

The landscape of almond suppliers to the EU underwent a significant consolidation, with the United States reinforcing its dominant position while other traditional suppliers saw their shares diminish.

The United States cemented its market dominance

The United States is the overwhelmingly dominant supplier, a position it strengthened over the period. In 2025, US imports into the EU were valued at €1.41 billion, accounting for the vast majority of the bloc's import expenditure (General Overview - Top Partners). While the US saw a 10.5% decline in value from its 2015 peak, this is modest compared to the market-wide price collapse, indicating its pricing power. The concentration of imports from the US increased, as shown by the rising Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for import value from 7,490 in 2015 to 9,086 in 2025 (Market Structure).

Australia's market share collapsed

The most dramatic change among suppliers was the decline of Australia. Australian exports to the EU fell by 73.2% in value, from €177 million in 2015 to just €48 million in 2025. Australia's high volatility coefficient (0.25) suggests inconsistent trade flows (Volatility & Shocks). This collapse likely reflects both competitive pressures from California and possibly the impact of geopolitical or logistical factors (e.g., drought, shipping costs) that made Australian almonds less competitive in the European market.

Emerging suppliers show volatility; export destinations realigned

Other traditional suppliers like the United Kingdom and Syria saw near-complete withdrawal (value declines of 98% and 98.2% respectively). In contrast, some new, smaller suppliers emerged with high volatility, such as Viet Nam and Afghanistan (Volatility & Shocks). On the export side, the EU's customer base shifted. Traditional large customers like the UK and US declined sharply in value (-67.2% and -86.6% respectively). In their place, exports to Türkiye and Egypt surged by 726.5% and 3364.5%, respectively, although from a low base, indicating new market-seeking behavior by EU producers.

III. Domestic Production Growth and Its Limits in Shaping Trade Autonomy

A key counter-narrative to import dependence is the significant growth in EU almond production, though this growth has been geographically concentrated and has not yet meaningfully reduced the bloc's import reliance.

EU almond production roughly doubled

EU production of shelled almonds (excluding bitter) increased substantially from 314,000 tonnes in 2015 to 600,000 tonnes in 2025, a 91.1% increase (Market Structure). Despite this near-doubling in volume, the production value stagnated, growing by just 1% to €990 million. This implies that EU producers faced the same severe price depression as the global market, squeezing their revenue despite higher output.

Spain is the undisputed production and export hub

The production growth is overwhelmingly concentrated in Spain. With a Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA) of 0.80 and an RCA of 8.99 in 2025, Spain exhibits an extremely strong specialization in almond production (Market Structure). Spain is also by far the leading exporter within the EU, with its export value in 2025 (€112 million) constituting the bulk of total EU exports. However, even Spain's export value fell by 28.1% over the period, highlighting the challenging global environment.

Production growth insufficient to offset demand

The increase in domestic production has not been large enough to offset the EU's consumption requirements or reduce import dependence. The trade intensity of almonds for the EU remained extremely high at 92.9% in 2025. This metric, which measures the openness of the EU market, indicates that almond trade remains a critical component of its supply. The high and stable net import reliance (83.8%) alongside booming production underscores that EU demand growth and/or the competitive advantages of foreign suppliers (primarily the US) have outpaced the capacity expansion of its domestic industry.

Conclusion

The EU market for shelled almonds from 2015 to 2025 evolved into a structurally advantaged buyer's market for consumers and processors, but a challenging one for producers. Key dynamics include:

1. Price Deflation Dominance: A 35%+ drop in import prices enabled a 24% increase in import volume while reducing the total import bill, shifting market power to the EU.
2. Supply Consolidation: The United States solidified its commanding position, while Australia's market share collapsed. Import source concentration increased, raising questions about supply chain resilience.
3. Domestic Growth in a Global Context: EU production, led by Spain, nearly doubled but failed to significantly dent the bloc's ~84% import reliance. Domestic producers were caught in the same price collapse, limiting the financial benefits of expanded output.

Looking forward, the EU almond market remains characterized by deep external dependence. Future trajectories will be influenced by US supply conditions, climate impacts on global production, and whether the continued growth of the Spanish industry can begin to materially alter the balance of trade in a persistently low-price environment.