Market evolution: Grapes (CN 0806) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of the European Union's external trade in grapes (customs code 0806, encompassing both fresh and dried grapes) over the 2015–2025 period. The EU is a major global consumer of grapes but has limited domestic production capacity, making it a structurally import-dependent market. Over the decade, the overall trade dynamics reveal a widening trade deficit, a geographic reorientation of supply sources, and rising unit prices across both fresh and dried segments. Three main dynamics stand out: the sustained growth of imports from emerging Southern Hemisphere producers, a structural decline in EU domestic production, and an increasingly price-driven export strategy that masks falling volumes. The following sections detail and interpret these trends.

I. A Widening Deficit Driven by Volume and Price Growth in Imports

EU imports grew strongly in both volume and value, far outpacing export gains

Between 2015 and 2025, EU grape imports rose from €1.34 billion to €2.10 billion in value (+56.8%), with quantities climbing from 682,030 tonnes to 892,965 tonnes (+30.9%). Over the same period, export value rose from €408 million to €482 million (+18.2%), but export quantities actually fell from 207,079 tonnes to 178,268 tonnes (−13.9%). The net trade deficit consequently widened from −€930 million to −€1.62 billion, a deterioration of 73.8%.

Sources: General Overview — trade

Unit prices have risen across the board, amplifying the deficit

Price increases have compounded the effect of rising import volumes. The average import price climbed from €1,961/t to €2,348/t (+19.8%), while export prices rose more steeply from €1,968/t to €2,701/t (+37.2%). Within the product segments, dried grape prices have been particularly volatile: import prices for dried grapes (CN 080620) surged from €1,842/t to €2,789/t (+51.4%), while export prices for the same category jumped from €1,745/t to €3,630/t (+108%). Fresh grape prices have been more moderate but still trended upward on both sides.

The Netherlands dominates as the EU's primary import gateway

The Netherlands' role as the EU's main entry point for grapes is striking: Dutch imports grew from €779 million to €1.26 billion (+61.7%), representing roughly 60% of total EU imports in 2025. Germany remained a distant second at €192 million, while Spain experienced the most dramatic growth among member states, with imports surging from €49 million to €151 million (+210.8%). Italy (+67.1%), Poland (+106.6%), and Ireland (+86.2%) also saw substantial increases, suggesting that the EU's consumption footprint is broadening beyond traditional Western European markets.

II. A Geographic Reorientation of Supply: From Traditional to Emerging Producers

India, Egypt, and Peru have emerged as dominant growth suppliers

The most striking feature of the 2015–2025 period is the rapid rise of emerging suppliers. India's share of EU grape imports grew from €61 million to €204 million (+235.7%), making it the fastest-growing major supplier. Egypt's share more than doubled from €76 million to €158 million (+107.9%), while Peru rose from €135 million to €309 million (+129.0%). These three countries now collectively account for roughly one-third of EU grape import value.

Source: Top partners — imports

South Africa remains the single largest supplier, with stable market position

South Africa maintained its position as the EU's leading grape supplier, growing from €350 million to €582 million. Its relatively low coefficient of variation (0.15) indicates stable and predictable trade flows, which likely reflects well-established logistics chains and counter-seasonal production. Türkiye, the second-largest supplier, showed more modest growth (+9.6%), though it has experienced higher price volatility (CV 0.17) than South Africa or Chile.

Export diversification has reduced concentration risk

On the export side, the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for exports by value declined from 3,390 to 2,782 (−17.9%), indicating meaningful diversification of destination markets. The United Kingdom remained the dominant export market at €233 million, but faster growth was recorded in Switzerland (+38.3%), Norway (+58.7%), Russia (+97.0%), and particularly Ukraine (+357.8%), which grew from €2 million to €10 million. By contrast, Greece's export performance declined by 33.1%, and Lithuania and France also saw contractions.

III. Declining Domestic Production and Structural Import Dependence

EU grape production has contracted significantly by volume

EU domestic production of grapes fell from 60.5 million kg to 40.0 million kg (−33.8%) over the period, even as production value rose from €63.4 million to €80 million (+26.1%). This divergence suggests a shift toward higher-value varieties (e.g., table grapes or specialized cultivars) rather than bulk production. The declining output reinforces the EU's structural inability to meet domestic demand, keeping net import reliance stable at approximately 86.5% throughout the decade.

Source: Production volumes

Specialisation remains concentrated in Mediterranean member states

According to Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA) data for 2025, Greece (RSCA 0.58, RCA 3.75), Italy (RSCA 0.57, RCA 3.65), and the Netherlands (RSCA 0.51, RCA 3.07) are the most specialised EU grape exporters. The Netherlands' strong specialisation score, despite being primarily an import hub, reflects its role as a re-export and distribution centre for the broader European market. At the other extreme, Ireland (RSCA −0.99), Estonia (−0.99), and Finland (−0.97) are virtually non-specialised, confirming the sector's geographic concentration in Southern and Western Europe.

Price volatility and supply shocks highlight external dependencies

The volatility analysis reveals significant exposure to supply-side disruptions. Peru experienced the most notable supply shock, with a price abnormality of 12.7 and a −13.7% price shift centred on 2022, affecting 15.4% of import value. India recorded a +13.7% price shift in 2018 (abnormality 3.0). On the export side, the coefficient of variation was highest for the United Arab Emirates (0.81), Belarus (0.76), and Russia (0.58), indicating highly unstable export flows to these markets. The high volatility for Russia and Belarus likely reflects the impact of sanctions and geopolitical disruption since 2022. Trade intensity remained elevated at 94.6%, confirming that the EU grape market is deeply integrated into global trade networks.

Conclusion

The EU grape market over 2015–2025 has been shaped by three converging forces: rising import demand, declining domestic production, and a fundamental shift in sourcing geography. The trade deficit has nearly doubled to €1.62 billion, driven by a 31% increase in import volumes and a 20% rise in average import prices. While traditional suppliers like South Africa and Chile have maintained stable positions, the most dynamic growth has come from India (+236%), Peru (+129%), and Egypt (+108%), reflecting both the globalization of grape supply chains and the EU's increasing reliance on year-round availability from diverse origins.

EU domestic production has contracted by over a third in volume, even as producers appear to be pivoting toward higher-value output. This structural decline, combined with a persistent 86.5% import reliance rate, suggests that external dependency will remain a defining feature of the market. On the export side, the EU has achieved greater diversification (HHI declining 18%) but total export volumes have fallen, indicating that value-added rather than volume growth is the primary strategy for remaining competitive.

The market's vulnerability to supply shocks — exemplified by the 2022 price disruption from Peru and geopolitical instability affecting Eastern European trade routes — underscores the need for continued supply chain diversification. With trade intensity at 95% and the Netherlands controlling roughly 60% of import flows, the EU grape market remains a highly trade-dependent sector whose dynamics are shaped more by global production cycles and logistics than by domestic factors.