Market evolution: Dried fruit mixtures (CN 0813) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of EU trade in products covered by Combined Nomenclature code 0813, which encompasses dried apricots, prunes, apples, peaches, pears, papayas, tamarinds and other edible fruits, as well as mixtures of edible and dried fruits or of edible nuts. The analysis covers EU trade flows with non-EU countries over the 2015–2025 period.

The decade under review reveals a market defined by three overarching dynamics: a persistent and widening structural trade deficit driven predominantly by rising import prices rather than volumes; a significant reconfiguration of both supply and demand geographies, with traditional partners losing ground to emerging suppliers; and notable shifts at the product-segment level, where the "other dried fruits" subcategory has surged in both value and unit price. Throughout the period, the EU remained heavily import-dependent, with net import reliance hovering above 80%, even as domestic production more than doubled in value.

1. A Structural Trade Deficit Worsened Primarily by Rising Unit Values

The EU's external trade deficit widened significantly over the decade

The EU ran a persistent trade deficit in CN 0813 products throughout the period. The deficit in value terms deepened from −€264 million in 2015 to −€380 million in 2025, a deterioration of 43.9%. By 2025, imports were valued at €526 million against exports of only €145 million, meaning imports were roughly 3.6 times larger than exports.

Import value growth was driven overwhelmingly by price, not volume

Import volumes grew only modestly — from 99,516 tonnes to 103,295 tonnes (+3.8%) — while import unit values rose from €4,287/t to €5,089/t (+18.7%). This indicates that the EU's growing import bill is largely a story of price inflation rather than expanding consumption. On the export side, the picture was more extreme: export volumes collapsed by 32.6% (from 27,254t to 18,366t), but unit values surged by 32.8% (from €5,962/t to €7,917/t), partially cushioning the value decline.

The "other dried fruits" subcategory led the price surge on the import side

The product-level breakdown reveals that the most dramatic import price inflation occurred in the other dried fruits subcategory (CN 081340), which includes dried peaches, pears, papayas, and tamarinds. Its import unit price surged from €6,837/t to €10,335/t (+51.2%), while volumes also grew by 26.0% — resulting in a 90.7% increase in import value (from €107M to €204M). By contrast, dried prunes (081320), the largest subcategory by volume, saw import values actually decline by 9.8% as both volumes and prices fell.

2. A Dramatic Reconfiguration of Supplier and Buyer Geographies

Serbia and Moldova emerged as major EU suppliers, while US imports collapsed

The most striking shift on the import side was the rise of Serbia, whose exports to the EU surged from €6.7 million to €52.4 million — a staggering +682.1% increase — making it the second-largest non-EU supplier by value in 2025 among the top seven partners. Moldova similarly grew from €3.9 million to €14.2 million (+265.9%). Meanwhile, United States imports into the EU plunged by 69.8%, from €67.5M to €20.4M, representing the sharpest decline among major suppliers. Türkiye remained the largest single supplier, growing from €115M to €150M (+30.4%).

The post-Brexit decline of the United Kingdom reshaped EU export flows

On the export side, the United Kingdom — by far the EU's largest external market — saw its share decline from €94M to €53M (−43.4%). This sharp contraction is consistent with the trade friction introduced by Brexit, which added customs formalities and regulatory divergence to what was previously frictionless intra-EU commerce. The EU partially offset this loss by growing exports to Switzerland (+104.4%, from €15M to €31M) and Norway (+88.7%, from €4M to €7.5M), both EEA/EFTA markets with closer regulatory alignment.

Supplier concentration decreased, reflecting diversification efforts

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for import concentration declined from 1,816 to 1,633 (−10.1%), while export concentration fell more sharply from 3,507 to 1,935 (−44.8%). Both figures indicate a market moving away from dependence on a handful of dominant partners. The sharper decline on the export side reflects the UK's reduced weight and the emergence of multiple smaller but growing European destinations. Nevertheless, import volatility remained elevated for certain partners — the coefficient of variation for US imports stood at 0.36 and for Serbia at 0.26, indicating meaningful supply-side instability even among the top seven.

Price shocks were detected in specific bilateral trade flows

The volatility analysis identified three notable price shock events:

The Norway and China shocks on the export side likely reflect low baseline volumes amplifying price movements, given the relatively small absolute value shares involved (4.3% and 1.9% respectively). The Argentina import price shock of 2021, affecting a 2.5% share of total import value, may be linked to climatic disruptions or currency movements in that period.

3. Domestic Production Surge and Evolving Intra-EU Specialisation

EU domestic production more than doubled in value, reducing external reliance

A notable structural shift occurred in EU domestic production. Production volumes grew from 101,722 tonnes to 168,990 tonnes (+66.1%), while production values surged from €450 million to €922 million (+104.6%). The near-doubling of production value relative to volume signals a move toward higher-value-added processing and products. This domestic expansion likely contributed to the modest decline in net import reliance, which fell from 84.5% to 82.0% (−2.9 percentage points), though the EU remains structurally dependent on external suppliers.

Export propensity declined sharply as the EU reoriented inward

The export propensity — the ratio of exports to domestic production — fell from 156.7% to 109.6% (−30.0%). In 2015, the EU exported more dried fruit than it produced domestically (suggesting significant re-export and processing activity), but by 2025, exports barely exceeded production levels. This shift likely reflects a combination of the UK's departure from the single market, rising domestic demand, and higher-value production being absorbed internally. Trade intensity also declined from 107.1% to 101.4% (−5.3%), pointing to a market that, while still heavily traded, is tilting slightly more toward domestic consumption.

Specialisation within the EU concentrated in southern and Baltic member states

Intra-EU specialisation analysis for 2025 reveals that the most specialised producers of CN 0813 products are concentrated in Spain (RSCA 0.53, accounting for 19.0% of EU production), the Baltic states (Estonia RSCA 0.69, Lithuania RSCA 0.64), and Greece (RSCA 0.61). Spain's dominance reflects its role as a major dried-fruit producer (particularly stone fruits and papaya/tropical dried fruits). Among the least specialised members, Ireland (RSCA −1.00), Portugal (RSCA −0.95), and Romania (RSCA −0.91) show negligible export specialisation in this product category relative to their overall trade profiles.

Within the EU, Germany consolidated its position as the bloc's largest importer (€126M → €193M, +53.4%) and leading re-exporter (€50M → €59M, +17.4%). Italy's exports, by contrast, collapsed from €32M to €8M (−75.4%), and Spain's from €14M to €8M (−42.8%), while Poland (€9M → €11M, +27.4%) and the Netherlands (€7M → €9M, +34.0%) gained ground as export hubs.

Mixtures of dried fruits lost ground in both import and export trade

Across both flows, the mixtures subcategory (CN 081350) contracted notably. Import volumes of mixtures fell by 49.5% (from 2,488t to 1,257t), and export volumes by 19.5% (from 7,497t to 6,037t). On the export side, mixtures had been the highest-value subcategory at €73M in 2015 but fell to €53M by 2025 (−27.7%), with unit prices declining from €9,763/t to €8,767/t. This suggests a market preference shift toward unmixed dried-fruit products, or increased competition in the mixed-products segment from non-EU processors.

Conclusion

The EU market for CN 0813 products over 2015–2025 was shaped by the interplay of three forces: price-driven import growth that widened the trade deficit despite flat volumes; a profound geographic reorientation of trade flows driven by Brexit, the rise of Western Balkan suppliers (especially Serbia), and the decline of US imports; and a structural shift toward higher-value domestic production that partially offset external dependence. The EU's net import reliance remained above 80% throughout, underscoring the bloc's continued vulnerability to supply disruptions and price volatility from third-country partners. Looking ahead, the concentration of import growth in the high-price "other dried fruits" segment and the continued geographic diversification of both suppliers and buyers suggest a market that is adapting structurally, even as the overall deficit continues to widen.