Market evolution: Preserved fruit and nuts (CN 0812) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of EU trade in provisionally preserved fruit and nuts (Customs code 0812) over the period 2015–2025. The analysis is based on trade data between the European Union and non-EU countries, focusing on key metrics such as value, volume, unit prices, and trade balances. The data overview reveals a significant transformation in the EU's trade position and market structure over the decade. While the EU traditionally held a strong trade surplus in this product category, recent years have seen a marked erosion of that surplus due to diverging trends in imports and exports. The following sections detail the main dynamics driving this shift, changes in partner relationships, and the underlying performance of distinct product segments.

1. The Erosion of the EU's Trade Surplus: A Shift from Net Exporter to Net Importer

The most pronounced trend over the 2015–2025 period is the substantial decline of the EU's trade surplus in CN 0812 products, driven by robust import growth contrasted with falling export volumes and values. This has moved the EU's position from a comfortable net exporter to a significantly more import-reliant market.

1.1. Import Growth Outpaces Export Decline

The EU's overall trade flow shows a clear divergence between imports and exports. Between 2015 and 2025, the total value of imports surged by 74.9%, reaching €20.8 million. In contrast, the total value of exports decreased by 16.1% to €31.0 million. More strikingly, while import volumes grew by 19.6%, export volumes plummeted by 34.6%. This indicates that the EU is sourcing more goods from outside its borders while its own shipments are contracting in quantity.

1.2. The Resulting Trade Balance and Unit Price Dynamics

The combination of rising imports and falling exports has drastically reduced the EU's trade surplus. From a peak of €31.4 million in 2017, the trade balance fell to just €10.1 million in 2025, a 59.5% decrease. This decline is partly mitigated by a shift in pricing. Export unit prices increased by 28.2%, while import prices rose even faster by 46.2%. This suggests that while the EU is importing more, it is doing so at higher costs, and its remaining exports are commanding higher prices, potentially reflecting a shift towards higher-value-added products or inflationary pressures.

2. Reconfiguration of Trade Partnerships and Shifting Intra-EU Specialization

The changing trade flows are accompanied by a significant reorganization of the EU's key trading partners. Traditional relationships have weakened, while new suppliers have rapidly gained market share, leading to a more diversified but volatile import base.

2.1. The Emergence of New Major Import Suppliers

Analysis of top import partners reveals a dramatic shift. While Türkiye remained the largest single supplier in 2025 (€5.1M), its share declined by 37.8% from 2015. The most dramatic change has been the rise of China, whose exports to the EU skyrocketed by 5,407% from €168,493 in 2015 to €9.3 million in 2025, making it the second-largest supplier. Other notable growers include Chile (+197.5%) and Morocco (+423.3%). Conversely, imports from traditional partners like the United Kingdom, Moldova, and Thailand have fallen significantly.

2.2. Volatility and Concentration in Import Supply

The rapid entry of new suppliers has increased supply volatility. China exhibits the highest coefficient of variation (CV) at 2.91, indicating highly unstable year-on-year flows. This is exemplified by the detected supply shock in 2023, where a 94.4% drop in Chinese supply was coupled with a 233.7% price spike. Meanwhile, the import concentration (HHI) fell by 43.2%, indicating a diversification away from reliance on a few major partners.

2.3. Declining EU Production and Shifting Internal Specialization

EU-wide production data shows a 64.3% decrease in volume from 2015 to 2025, indicating a potential structural decline in domestic manufacturing capacity. This contraction has reshaped the internal specialization. In 2025, Greece, Spain, and Bulgaria were the most specialized exporters (RSCA > 0.8). Meanwhile, large member states like Ireland, Sweden, and Hungary have near-zero production and specialization scores, confirming their role as net importers within the bloc.

3. Diverging Fortunes of Product Sub-Segments: Cherries vs. Other Fruits

The aggregate trends mask a stark divergence between the two sub-products within CN 0812: cherries (081210) and all other preserved fruits and nuts (081290). Their trajectories in both import and export markets are moving in opposite directions.

3.1. The Soaring Import Demand for Cherries

The cherry segment (081210) has been the primary driver of import growth. Between 2015 and 2025, import volumes for cherries increased by 51.6%, while their value nearly doubled (+90.9%). Cherry imports now constitute the majority of import volume and value in 2025. In contrast, imports of other fruits (081290) have grown only modestly.

3.2. The Collapse of Cherry Exports and the Rise of Other Fruit Exports

Simultaneously, the EU's export profile has inverted. In 2015, cherry exports dominated (€32.8M vs. €4.1M for others). By 2025, cherry export values had fallen by 43.8%, while the value of exports in the "other" category surged by 207.9%. This suggests a fundamental shift: the EU is becoming a net importer of cherries, likely for further processing and re-export, while specializing more in exporting other preserved fruits, which are commanding higher unit prices (€2,085/t vs. €2,859/t for cherries).

Conclusion

Over the 2015–2025 period, the EU market for provisionally preserved fruit and nuts (CN 0812) underwent a structural transformation. The EU's historical trade surplus eroded significantly as import growth, particularly from new and volatile suppliers like China, outpaced the decline in export volumes. Internally, production capacity contracted, leading to a reshaping of specialization among member states. Crucially, this period is characterized by a product sub-segment inversion: the EU has shifted from being a net exporter of cherries to a net importer, while aggressively expanding exports of other preserved fruits. These dynamics suggest the EU is increasingly participating in global value chains for this product, importing basic provisions (like cherries) for further processing or consumption, while focusing its export efforts on higher-value-added segments.