Market evolution: Fresh melons and papayas (CN 0807) — 2015–2025
Introduction
Fresh melons and papayas (Combined Nomenclature code 0807) encompass three sub-categories: watermelons (080711), other melons (080719), and papayas (080720). Over the 2015–2025 period, the European Union's external trade in these products underwent substantial transformation. Total import value nearly doubled, rising from €425.8 million to €817.7 million (+92.0%), while exports grew more modestly from €161.4 million to €283.8 million (+75.8%). This divergence widened the EU's trade deficit in the category from −€264.4 million to −€533.9 million, reflecting a structural increase in the bloc's dependence on non-EU suppliers. This report examines the principal dynamics behind these trends, focusing on the growth in import volumes and values, the evolving geography of supply, and the role of unit prices, volatility, and product-segment composition.
I. A structurally widening trade deficit driven by surging watermelon imports
The EU trade deficit in fresh melons more than doubled over the decade
Throughout the period, the EU was a consistent net importer of fresh melons and papayas. The trade balance deteriorated from −€264.4 million in 2015 to −€533.9 million in 2025, its widest point over the entire decade. While exports grew by 75.8% in value, this was insufficient to offset the 92.0% surge in imports. Import volumes rose by 49.1% (from 581,254 tonnes to 866,476 tonnes), compared with a 25.3% increase in export volumes (from 247,225 tonnes to 309,764 tonnes). The gap was further amplified by rising import unit prices, which climbed from €732/t to €944/t (+28.8%).
Watermelons accounted for the lion's share of import growth
The product segment breakdown reveals that watermelons (080711) were the principal driver of rising imports:
| Sub-product | Import volume 2015 (t) | Import volume 2025 (t) | Change | Import value 2015 (€M) | Import value 2025 (€M) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Watermelons (080711) | 245,531 | 490,705 | +99.9% | 117.6 | 405.5 | +244.8% |
| Other melons (080719) | 300,527 | 335,073 | +11.5% | 245.9 | 319.0 | +29.7% |
| Papayas (080720) | 35,196 | 40,699 | +15.6% | 62.3 | 93.1 | +49.5% |
Watermelon import volumes nearly doubled and their import value more than tripled, driven by both volume expansion and a sharp rise in unit prices (from €479/t to €826/t, +72.5%). By contrast, non-watermelon melon imports grew only modestly in volume (+11.5%), though their unit value also increased from €818/t to €952/t. Papaya imports remained a relatively small share, growing from 35,196 tonnes to 40,699 tonnes.
On the export side, watermelons also grew while other melons declined
EU exports of watermelons rose from 123,743 tonnes (€60.4 million) in 2015 to 211,583 tonnes (€161.9 million) in 2025, with unit export prices climbing from €488/t to €765/t. Conversely, exports of non-watermelon melons fell from 122,551 tonnes to 95,388 tonnes (−22.2%), even as their unit values increased from €806/t to €1,203/t. This suggests that EU producers of other melons lost competitiveness or shifted focus to the domestic market, while watermelon production and re-export expanded significantly.
II. A rapidly diversifying but still concentrated import supply base
Brazil and Morocco dominated EU imports, but several smaller suppliers surged
The partner-country data shows that the two largest suppliers — Brazil and Morocco — together accounted for a dominant share of EU imports, but a number of smaller origins grew at extraordinary rates:
| Partner | Import value 2015 (€M) | Import value 2025 (€M) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brazil | 179.4 | 320.5 | +78.6% |
| Morocco | 77.6 | 239.3 | +208.4% |
| Costa Rica | 54.1 | 64.1 | +18.4% |
| Türkiye | 8.6 | 46.8 | +445.9% |
| Senegal | 13.8 | 24.8 | +80.2% |
| Honduras | 22.8 | 28.2 | +23.9% |
| Albania | 1.0 | 12.2 | +1,112.5% |
Morocco's import value more than tripled, positioning it as a near-equal to Brazil by 2025. Türkiye and Albania were the fastest-growing origins, with import values rising by 445.9% and 1,112.5% respectively — from negligible levels in 2015 to meaningful shares by 2025. This reflects both expanding production capacity in these countries and the EU's trade facilitation efforts (e.g., association agreements with Türkiye, proximity advantages for Morocco and Albania).
Import concentration edged higher despite diversification efforts
The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for imports by value increased from 2,397 to 2,536 (+5.8%) over the period. While this level is below the conventional "highly concentrated" threshold (2,500), the upward drift indicates that Brazil's and Morocco's expanding shares more than offset the growth of smaller suppliers. Import concentration by volume similarly rose from 1,988 to 2,172 (+9.3%).
On the export side, concentration was considerably higher (HHI by value of 3,456 in 2015, ending at 3,506 in 2025), reflecting the dominance of the United Kingdom as a destination for EU melon exports.
The UK was by far the most important export market; Switzerland and Norway followed
The top export partners remained remarkably stable:
| Partner | Export value 2015 (€M) | Export value 2025 (€M) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| United Kingdom | 76.6 | 145.2 | +89.6% |
| Switzerland | 52.6 | 75.4 | +43.4% |
| Norway | 18.1 | 31.6 | +74.1% |
| Russia | 1.9 | 5.4 | +175.8% |
| Serbia | 2.0 | 5.8 | +187.9% |
| Ukraine | 0.1 | 2.7 | +2,101.5% |
The United Kingdom alone absorbed over half of EU extra-EU melon export value by 2025, and its share grew. Ukraine emerged as a small but fast-growing destination, albeit from a very low base and with high volatility (coefficient of variation of 1.54).
III. Rising unit prices, notable supply shocks, and Southern European specialisation
Unit prices increased across all product lines, with watermelons seeing the steepest rise
Price dynamics were a key feature of the 2015–2025 period. On the import side, watermelon import unit prices surged from €479/t to €826/t (+72.5%), while other melon prices rose from €818/t to €952/t (+16.4%) and papaya prices from €1,769/t to €2,287/t (+29.3%). The steeper increase for watermelons likely reflects growing demand for higher-quality or off-season fruit, as well as cost pressures from logistics and production.
Export prices followed a similar upward trend. Watermelon export unit prices climbed from €488/t to €765/t, and other melon export prices from €806/t to €1,203/t — a 49.1% increase that outpaced the corresponding import-side rise, suggesting improved quality positioning or a shift toward premium export segments.
Several supply shocks were detected, concentrated in 2020 and 2022
The volatility and shock analysis identified three notable price shock events:
| Entity | Flow | Year | Abnormality score | Price shift | Share of trade value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Norway | Exports | 2022 | 16.3 | +51.8% | 12.0% |
| Switzerland | Exports | 2022 | 11.0 | +23.7% | 32.4% |
| Senegal | Imports | 2020 | 10.6 | +13.0% | 4.3% |
The 2022 export-price shocks to Norway and Switzerland are consistent with the broader energy and logistics cost inflation that affected European agriculture and freight in the aftermath of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The Senegal import-price shock in 2020 may reflect pandemic-related supply disruptions during the first year of COVID-19. The volatility of individual trade relationships varied widely: Albania (CV = 0.79), Morocco (CV = 0.35), and Türkiye (CV = 0.53) on the import side showed the highest instability, consistent with their rapid and uneven growth trajectories.
Southern European member states dominated EU trade, with strong revealed comparative advantage
The member-state specialisation data confirms that production and trade in fresh melons is concentrated in Southern Europe:
| Member state | RCA (2025) | RSCA (2025) | Share of EU-27 exports (2025) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spain | 8.58 | 0.79 | 49.7% |
| Greece | 8.05 | 0.78 | 5.4% |
| Italy | 1.47 | 0.19 | 11.8% |
| Netherlands | 1.30 | 0.13 | 18.9% |
Spain alone accounted for nearly half of all EU extra-EU export value in 2025 (€148.3 million, up from €73.9 million in 2015, +100.6%), reflecting its role as Europe's primary melon-producing region with year-round growing capacity. The Netherlands, despite a more modest RCA, held a large export share thanks to its role as a trade and re-export hub.
Among importing member states, the Netherlands (€285.8 million), France (€206.0 million, +191.3%), and Spain (€177.0 million, +118.4%) were the top three entry points. France and Austria (€24.7 million, +693.0%) showed the most dramatic import growth, suggesting shifts in logistics flows or domestic demand patterns.
Conclusion
Over 2015–2025, the EU fresh melon and papaya market expanded significantly in both volume and value terms, with imports growing much faster than exports. The trade deficit more than doubled to over half a billion euros, driven above all by a near-doubling of watermelon import volumes and sharp unit-price increases across all sub-products. Brazil and Morocco consolidated their positions as the two dominant suppliers, while Türkiye and Albania emerged as fast-growing origins. On the export side, the United Kingdom remained the overwhelmingly dominant destination, absorbing more than half of extra-EU export value. Spain's leading role as both producer and exporter, supported by a strong revealed comparative advantage, continued to anchor the EU's position in global melon trade. Price shocks in 2020 and 2022, linked to the pandemic and the energy crisis respectively, introduced volatility but did not fundamentally alter the upward trajectory of trade values. Looking ahead, continued growth in watermelon demand, further diversification of supply origins, and climate-driven production risks in Mediterranean Europe are likely to shape the next phase of this market's evolution.