Market evolution: Coconuts Brazil nuts cashew nuts (CN 0801) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyses the trade performance of the European Union in coconuts, Brazil nuts, and cashew nuts (combined under CN code 0801) between 2015 and 2025. The period was characterized by robust growth in trade value, a significant widening of the trade deficit, and notable shifts in the geographic composition of suppliers. The EU remains a large net importer of these products, with trade intensity remaining very high. The analysis is based on annual trade data, with 2025 figures reflecting the latest full-year snapshot.

1. Sustained Growth in Trade Driven by Rising Import Demand and Widening Deficit

The EU's total trade in CN 0801 products expanded considerably over the decade, though the growth was overwhelmingly concentrated on the import side. This dynamic led to a substantial increase in the region's trade deficit for these goods.

The import surge outpaced export growth significantly

Between the first and last years of the period, the value of EU imports surged by 74.8%, rising from €959 million to €1.68 billion. In volume terms, imports increased by 53.9%, from 214,027 tonnes to 329,434 tonnes. This growth was largely sustained throughout the period, with a slight dip in 2022 followed by a strong recovery. In contrast, EU exports grew more moderately, with their value increasing by 33.9% (from €76.5 million to €102.4 million) and quantity by 13.7% (General Overview).

The EU trade deficit deepened considerably

The imbalance between strong import growth and modest export performance caused the trade deficit to widen significantly. The deficit in value terms expanded by 78.4%, from -€882.7 million in 2015 to -€1.57 billion in 2025. This underscores the EU's heavy reliance on external suppliers to meet domestic consumption demand for these nuts and coconuts (General Overview).

Unit values reflected divergent price trends for imports and exports

Import prices rose by 13.6% over the period, indicating some cost pressure on EU buyers. Export unit values showed a slightly higher increase of 17.7%, suggesting that EU exporters may have focused on higher-value or processed products. The data indicates that import prices were consistently lower than export prices, which is consistent with the EU importing raw or minimally processed nuts and adding value before re-exporting a portion (General Overview).

2. Geographic Reorientation: Vietnam and West Africa Emerge as Key Suppliers

The landscape of the EU's suppliers for CN 0801 products underwent a major transformation between 2015 and 2025, with Vietnam and Côte d'Ivoire becoming dominant players, while India's role diminished.

Vietnam solidified its position as the dominant supplier

Vietnam was already the largest source of imports in 2015, but its share grew dramatically. The value of imports from Vietnam more than doubled, increasing by 110.8% from €436 million to €920 million. This growth was primarily driven by shelled cashew nuts (080132), which constitute the bulk of imports under this code. This highlights Vietnam's central role in global cashew processing (General Overview).

Côte d'Ivoire experienced explosive growth, particularly in coconuts

The most dramatic shift occurred with Côte d'Ivoire. Import values from this West African nation surged by 905.9%, from €21.5 million in 2015 to €216.6 million in 2025. This exceptional growth was almost entirely attributable to desiccated coconuts (080111), for which Côte d'Ivoire became the leading supplier, surpassing traditional sources like the Philippines and Indonesia (General Overview).

Traditional suppliers saw mixed fortunes

While the Philippines maintained its position as the second-largest supplier with 91.4% growth, India experienced a severe decline. Import values from India fell by 52.9%, from €166 million to €78 million. This decline may be linked to India's domestic demand dynamics and competition from other cashew-producing nations. Bolivia remained a significant but stable supplier of Brazil nuts (General Overview).

The product composition of EU trade is heavily skewed towards specific segments

An analysis of the product segments within CN 0801 reveals a clear specialization. On the import side, shelled cashew nuts (080132) dominate, accounting for the majority of both volume and value, growing from 100,953 tonnes (€688M) in 2015 to 201,371 tonnes (€1.27B) in 2025. Desiccated coconuts (080111) are the second-largest import category. For exports, shelled cashew nuts (080132) are also the primary product, followed by fresh coconuts not in shell (080119) and desiccated coconuts (080111) (Product Segment Breakdown).

3. Price Volatility and Structural Vulnerabilities in the EU's Nut Supply Chain

The EU's nut trade is characterized by concentrated supplier bases and has experienced notable price volatility and supply shocks, pointing to inherent vulnerabilities in the supply chain.

Supplier concentration for imports increased, raising dependency risks

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for import concentration by value increased by 30.3% from 2,549 to 3,322, indicating a less diversified supplier base in 2025 compared to 2015. This heightened concentration makes the EU more susceptible to supply disruptions or price shocks originating in key producing countries (Concentration HHI).

Significant price volatility was observed across key trading partners

The coefficient of variation (CV) for import values highlights considerable price volatility. Notably, imports from the United Kingdom showed the highest volatility (CV of 0.88), though from a low base. Among major suppliers, Côte d'Ivoire (CV of 0.30) and Vietnam (CV of 0.27) also exhibited significant price swings. For exports, shipments to Algeria (CV of 1.16) and Morocco (CV of 1.03) were highly volatile (Volatility & Shocks).

Discrete supply shocks impacted specific flows

The data identifies several abnormal price shifts. A major price shock was detected in 2021 for imports from the Philippines, with a price increase of 44.9% (an abnormality score of 23.8). A significant shock also occurred in 2022 for exports to Ukraine, where prices jumped by 94.8%. These events reflect the sensitivity of trade to external geopolitical and logistical factors (Volatility & Shocks).

The EU's net import reliance remains structurally high

The net import reliance ratio for CN 0801 remained consistently above 78% throughout the period, peaking at 83.8% in 2025. This metric confirms the EU's fundamental dependency on non-EU sources. The trade intensity, which measures the overall importance of trade to the EU market, also remained very high at around 93% (Autonomy & Vulnerability).

Conclusion

Between 2015 and 2025, the EU's market for coconuts, Brazil nuts, and cashew nuts expanded robustly, fueled by a 75% increase in import value that significantly widened the trade deficit. The supply landscape was reoriented towards Vietnam and, most strikingly, Côte d'Ivoire, which became a critical supplier of desiccated coconuts. This period also highlighted the EU's structural vulnerabilities: an increasingly concentrated supplier base, significant price volatility, and a persistently high net import reliance exceeding 80%. These factors suggest that while the market offers growth opportunities, EU businesses and policymakers must remain mindful of supply chain risks and the potential need for diversification strategies to ensure stable access to these products.