Market evolution: Fresh stone fruit (CN 0809) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyzes the trade evolution of fresh stone fruit (apricots, cherries, peaches, plums, and sloes) under Combined Nomenclature (CN) code 0809 within the European Union (EU) from 2015 to 2025. The data covers trade flows between the EU and non-EU countries. Over the decade, the EU market for this product category experienced significant structural shifts, characterized by diverging trends in value and volume, a major reconfiguration of trading partners, and pronounced adjustments in the product mix of both imports and exports. The following sections detail these dynamics.

1. A decade of divergence: Rising values, falling volumes, and a shrinking surplus

The period 2015–2025 was defined by a stark decoupling of the monetary value of trade from its physical volume, which fundamentally altered the EU's trade balance in fresh stone fruit.

Export values held firm while volumes collapsed, driving a price surge

Despite a dramatic 58.2% decline in export quantity from 558,871 tonnes in 2015 to 233,589 tonnes in 2025, the total value of EU exports remained relatively stable, decreasing only marginally from €489.6 million to €497.5 million (General Overview). This apparent paradox is explained by a 141.4% increase in the average export price, which rose from €876 per tonne to €2,115 per tonne. This indicates a strategic shift towards exporting higher-value products.

Import growth was more balanced, but the trade balance deteriorated

Imports followed a different trajectory. Both import value and volume grew significantly, by 44.9% (to €329.8 million) and 41.9% (to 174,435 tonnes) respectively. While import prices also increased, the rise was a modest 2.1%, suggesting continued cost competitiveness from external suppliers. Consequently, the EU's trade surplus in fresh stone fruit shrank considerably, falling 36.0% from €262 million in 2015 to €168 million in 2025. In 2020, the balance even turned negative (€-14 million), highlighting a year of import dependence.

2. A reshaped global map: Diversifying imports and reorienting exports

The EU's network of trading partners underwent substantial restructuring, with notable shifts in concentration and the rise of new key players.

Import sources: The decline of traditional suppliers and the rise of new entrants

The share of traditional powerhouse Türkiye in EU imports fell, with its import value dropping by 15.8% to €77 million in 2025, despite having peaked at over €216 million in 2022. Meanwhile, suppliers from the EU's eastern neighborhood and the Southern Hemisphere gained ground. Moldova saw explosive growth (+2514%) to become a major supplier at €55.2 million, and South Africa (+75.3%) and Chile (+47.2%) consolidated their positions. This diversification is reflected in a 22.6% decrease in the import Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI), indicating a less concentrated import market (Concentration).

Export destinations: Increased reliance on the UK and Switzerland, a pivot away from Belarus

EU exports became more concentrated on stable, high-income markets. The United Kingdom remained the premier destination, with its share of exports growing 25.1% in value to €214.8 million. Switzerland also grew significantly (+34.3% to €113.2 million). In stark contrast, exports to Belarus plummeted by 88.1% (from €70.9 million to €8.4 million), largely explaining the overall decline in export volume. This geographic pivot is mirrored in a 36.4% increase in the export HHI, signaling a higher concentration of exports among fewer partners (Top Partners).

3. Product-level adjustments and market specialization

The aggregate trade trends mask significant divergences at the product segment level, revealing a strategic focus on high-value cherries and a changing import portfolio.

Export specialization intensified around cherries and plums

The EU's export product mix evolved decisively. Fresh peaches/nectarines (080930), while still the largest category by volume, saw its quantity fall by 66% but its price nearly triple to €1,989/tonne. The most dynamic shift was in cherries (080929): their export volume halved, but the price surged by 230% to €5,157/tonne, making cherries the most valuable export product per tonne. Plums (080940) also showed robust price growth. This aligns with the EU's high revealed comparative advantage (RCA) in cherries and peaches (Market Structure).

Import composition broadened, with plums and peaches driving volume growth

On the import side, fresh plums (080940) remained the dominant segment, with volumes rising by 60% to 100,608 tonnes. The growth of peaches/nectarines (080930) was even more pronounced, increasing by 86% in volume to 40,834 tonnes. Cherry imports (080929) were volatile but contributed significantly to value. The increasing import volumes in these categories help explain the overall growth in import quantity and the pressure on the trade balance.

Conclusion

Over the 2015–2025 decade, the EU fresh stone fruit market transitioned from a volume-driven export model to a value-focused one. This was achieved by pivoting towards premium cherry exports to stable Western markets, even as overall physical exports contracted. Simultaneously, the EU's import profile grew in both scale and diversity, with new suppliers from Eastern Europe and the Southern Hemisphere compensating for shifts in traditional sourcing. While this diversification reduced import concentration, it also contributed to a structural erosion of the EU's trade surplus. The market has thus become more specialized in its export offering and more integrated with a wider set of global suppliers, adapting to pressures of competitiveness and changing consumer demand.