Market evolution: Fresh apples pears quinces (CN 0808) — 2015–2025

Introduction

The European Union's external trade in fresh apples, pears, and quinces (CN 0808) from 2015 to 2025 reveals a market undergoing significant structural adjustment. The overall picture is one of resilience in value terms despite a substantial contraction in export volume, driven by a major shift toward higher unit values. This period was characterized by the consolidation of key trading partnerships, increasing market concentration on the import side, and a notable adaptation to global supply shocks. The following sections detail these core dynamics. For a full overview of the trade data, see the General Overview.

1. The Volume-Value Divergence: Export Volume Halves While Value Holds Steady

The most striking feature of the EU's external trade in CN 0808 over the decade is the stark divergence between the evolution of traded volume and monetary value, particularly for exports.

EU exports became significantly more valuable per tonne

Between 2015 and 2025, the quantity of fresh apples, pears, and quinces exported by the EU to non-EU countries fell dramatically from 2,421,222 tonnes to 1,334,973 tonnes, a decline of 44.9%. In stark contrast, the total export value decreased by only 0.5% over the same period, from €1.37 billion to €1.36 billion. This resilience in total value was achieved through a continuous and strong increase in export unit prices, which rose from €565 per tonne to €1,019 per tonne, an 80.5% increase. This indicates a strategic or market-driven shift toward higher-value segments or improved pricing power in destination markets.

Import dynamics show a similar, though less pronounced, price trend

EU imports followed a parallel pattern but with less dramatic volume shifts. Import volumes decreased by 17.3% (from 528,083 to 436,787 tonnes), while import value fell only 0.9% (from €560 million to €555 million). Consequently, import unit prices increased by 19.8% (from €1,060 to €1,270 per tonne). This sustained price inflation, stronger for exports than for imports, allowed the EU's trade surplus to remain virtually unchanged, moving from €808 million to €806 million. For a detailed breakdown of these figures, consult the General Overview.

2. Shifting Geographies: Consolidation of Imports and Diversification of Exports

The origin of EU imports and the destination of its exports evolved considerably, reflecting changing global production capacities, phytosanitary barriers, and emerging market opportunities.

Import sources consolidated around Southern Hemisphere producers, with some volatility

Chile and South Africa solidified their positions as the EU's primary suppliers of fresh apples and pears. Over the period, imports from Chile grew by 9.3% to €197 million, while those from South Africa surged by 37.8% to €163 million. In contrast, imports from New Zealand collapsed by 61.1% (from €98 million to €38 million), and those from the United Kingdom saw a 79.2% decline. The import market also saw rising contributions from North Macedonia (+175.1%) and Serbia (+96.6%), indicating a growing role for Western Balkan suppliers. This consolidation is reflected in the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for imports by value, which increased by 14.7% from 2,034 to 2,333, signaling higher market concentration. This concentration data can be explored further via the Concentration dashboard.

Export destinations showed a geographic pivot toward Asia and stability in the UK

The United Kingdom remained the EU's largest single export market, with value increasing slightly by 4.7% to €351 million. However, the most dramatic growth occurred in Asian markets. Exports to India grew by an extraordinary 315.0% (from €15 million to €64 million), and those to Brazil increased by 92.0% (from €55 million to €105 million). Saudi Arabia also became a more valuable partner (+20.8%). Conversely, exports to Belarus plummeted by 68.5%. This diversification is mirrored in the more stable HHI for exports (a marginal decline of 2.4%). A complete view of partner performance is available at By Country.

3. Market Structure, Specialization, and Volatility

Underlying the aggregate trends are distinct patterns of specialization among EU Member States and measurable volatility in key trade relationships.

Italy and the Netherlands are the EU's specialized exporters, while Nordic countries are net importers

Within the EU, Italy displays the highest revealed comparative advantage (RCA of 3.65) and a strong relative specialization index (RSCA of 0.57) in CN 0808 products, cementing its role as the bloc's primary exporter, with its export value rising to €467 million in 2025. The Netherlands also shows strong specialization (RCA of 1.84). In contrast, countries like Ireland, Finland, and Sweden are highly unspecialized (negative RSCA values close to -1), indicating they are significant net importers of these fruits. This internal specialization map, viewable in the Specialisation tab, explains the driving forces behind the EU's aggregate trade balance.

Trade exhibited significant volatility and discrete price shocks

Trade with certain partners was notably volatile. For imports, New Zealand (CV of 0.42) and the United Kingdom (CV of 0.62) showed high instability in value. For exports, Belarus (CV of 0.77) was the most volatile destination. The analysis also detected specific shock events, such as a 31.4% price drop in imports from the UK in 2019, and an 86.0% price surge in imports from North Macedonia in 2020. These events underscore the market's sensitivity to policy changes, currency movements, and crop yields in specific countries. Detailed volatility metrics are in the Volatility dashboard.

Product mix within the CN 0808 heading remained stable

The trade flow is overwhelmingly dominated by fresh apples (CN 080810), which consistently accounted for over 80% of both import and export volumes by quantity. The unit price for exported apples, the main segment, nearly doubled from €548 to €1,007 per tonne. Pears (CN 080830) represented most of the remainder, with a similar, though slightly less pronounced, price increase trend. Quinces (CN 080840) remained a niche product, albeit with the highest unit prices. This segment stability is detailed in the Product Compare section.

Conclusion

The period 2015-2025 for EU trade in fresh apples, pears, and quinces was defined by a successful value-focused adaptation in the face of declining volumes. The EU maintained its trade surplus by securing higher prices for its exports, effectively offsetting the impact of a nearly halved export volume. Geographically, the bloc reinforced its import ties with Chile and South Africa while successfully diversifying export markets toward high-growth economies like India and Brazil, reducing dependency on more volatile destinations. The market also showed increased concentration on the import side and demonstrated clear internal specialization, with Italy serving as the EU's export powerhouse. Despite experiencing volatility and specific price shocks, the overall market structure remained resilient, anchored by the dominant apple segment and a consistent product mix. This period highlights a mature agricultural sector capable of adapting its trade strategy to emphasize value over sheer volume.