Market evolution: Cashew nuts (CN 080132) — 2015–2025

Introduction

Cashew nuts occupy a distinct niche in European nut consumption: the EU does not produce raw cashews at scale domestically, and therefore relies almost entirely on external suppliers to meet demand. Over the 2015–2025 period, this market underwent a dramatic transformation. EU imports nearly doubled in volume, rising from approximately 101,000 tonnes to over 201,000 tonnes, while import value surged from €688 million to €1.27 billion — an 85% increase. At the same time, the geographic origins of these imports shifted substantially, with West African suppliers gaining ground while some traditional partners receded. This report examines three interconnected dynamics that define the decade: the surge in demand and the reconfiguration of sourcing, the evolving structure of EU trade, and the persistent vulnerabilities embedded in the EU's dependency on imports.

1. A Decade of Surging Demand and Reconfigured Supply Origins

EU import volumes nearly doubled, driven by sustained consumption growth

Between 2015 and 2025, the EU's import quantity of shelled cashew nuts grew by 99.5%, from 100,953 tonnes to 201,371 tonnes. Import values rose correspondingly by 85.0%, from €688 million to €1.27 billion. This expansion reflects the continued integration of cashew nuts into European diets — spurred by health-conscious snacking trends, plant-based food innovation, and growing demand from the confectionery and snack industries. Notably, average import prices declined by 7.3% over the period (from €6,817/t to €6,322/t), suggesting that increased global supply helped moderate costs even as volumes surged.

Vietnam cemented its position as the EU's dominant supplier

Of all partner countries, Vietnam experienced the most dramatic growth in EU exports. Vietnamese shipments to the EU rose from €428 million in 2015 to €908 million in 2025 — an increase of 112.2%. Vietnam has become the world's largest processor of raw cashew nuts, and its vertically integrated supply chain — importing raw nuts from Africa for processing and then re-exporting the shelled product — has allowed it to offer competitive pricing and reliable supply at scale.

Côte d'Ivoire emerged as a major new supplier

Perhaps the most striking shift in origin structure was the rise of Côte d'Ivoire. EU imports from the country surged by 1,456% — from just €13 million in 2015 to €206 million in 2025 — making it the third-largest supplier by value. This reflects Côte d'Ivoire's deliberate strategy to move up the value chain by developing domestic processing capacity, rather than exporting raw nuts for processing elsewhere. Other West African producers such as Burkina Faso also grew (from €3 million to €12 million, +280%), indicating a broader regional trend.

India's share declined sharply as processing shifted elsewhere

In contrast, India — once the EU's second-largest supplier — saw its exports to the EU fall by 56.2%, from €165 million to €72 million. India's domestic cashew processing industry has faced rising labour costs and competition from mechanised Vietnamese processors. Similarly, Indonesia saw a 76.6% decline (from €15 million to €3.5 million), and imports from the United Kingdom collapsed by 98.6% — a likely consequence of Brexit-driven trade reclassification and the rerouting of supply chains.

The following table summarises the evolution of the EU's top seven import partners by value:

2. Structural Concentration and a Declining Re-export Role

Import sourcing became more concentrated despite geographic diversification

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for EU imports by value increased from 4,471 to 5,384 (+20.4%), indicating growing concentration. This may seem paradoxical given the rise of new African suppliers, but it reflects the sheer dominance of Vietnam, which now accounts for the largest single share of EU imports. While origin diversification has occurred at the margin — West Africa is a genuine new source region — the net effect has been greater dependence on fewer, larger suppliers.

Germany's role as an import hub expanded dramatically

Among EU Member States, Germany's import growth stands out: its share rose from €139 million to €440 million (+215.5%), making it the second-largest EU importer after the Netherlands. Spain (+300%), France (+103%), and Italy (+104%) also registered strong growth. The Netherlands, the dominant EU gateway, grew more modestly at +13.5% (from €341 million to €387 million), suggesting its share is being partially redistributed to other Member States.

The specialisation data for 2025 confirms the Netherlands as the most specialised EU Member State in cashew trade (RSCA of 0.587, RCA of 3.84), followed by Lithuania (RSCA 0.503) and Germany (RSCA 0.126).

EU re-exports grew modestly while concentration fell

EU exports to non-EU destinations grew from €55 million to €70 million (+26.9%) in value and from 7,178 to 9,656 tonnes (+34.5%) in volume — far outpaced by import growth. This confirms the EU's role primarily as a consumption market rather than a major re-export hub. Export prices declined by 5.7% (from €7,675/t to €7,238/t).

The export HHI fell from 4,385 to 2,853 (−34.9%), indicating that EU exports became more diversified by destination. The United Kingdom remained the single largest export market (€34 million), though essentially flat (−3.9%). Notable growth occurred in exports to Switzerland (+99.7%) and Morocco (+2,794%), while exports to Belarus fell sharply (−80.8%), possibly reflecting geopolitical sanctions.

Within the EU, Spain emerged as an increasingly active exporter (+749%), and Sweden saw extraordinary growth (+2,154%), suggesting the emergence of new intra-EU distribution channels. Conversely, Italy's exports collapsed by 87.9%.

3. Persistent Import Dependency and Emerging Vulnerabilities

The EU remains structurally dependent on external cashew supplies

The net import reliance of the EU for cashew nuts remained remarkably stable throughout the decade, hovering around 83–84%. This near-constant figure, despite the surge in volumes, underscores that the EU cannot meaningfully reduce its exposure through domestic production. EU production volumes did grow from 314,000 kg to 600,000 kg (+91.1%), but this represents a negligible fraction of the over 200,000 tonnes consumed annually. The trade intensity remained extremely high at approximately 93%, confirming that this product is overwhelmingly shaped by international trade dynamics.

Supply volatility is concentrated in newer, smaller partner countries

The volatility analysis reveals that the EU's largest suppliers — Vietnam (CV of 0.27) and Brazil (CV of 0.37) — exhibit relatively low volume volatility. However, several newer or smaller suppliers display high variability, including Tanzania (CV 1.14), Côte d'Ivoire (CV 1.10), Nigeria (CV 1.05), and Benin (CV 0.98). This pattern is consistent with the growing pains of emerging processing industries in West Africa, where output can fluctuate with harvest conditions, infrastructure constraints, and policy changes.

Price shocks in 2017 highlighted the market's sensitivity to global supply disruptions

The supply shock analysis identified two significant price shock events concentrated around 2017. A price shock in Indian imports showed an abnormality of 4.4 with a 28.3% price shift, affecting 15.1% of import value. A concurrent shock in US-bound exports displayed an abnormality of 7.2 and a 79.6% price shift. These events likely reflect the global cashew price spike of 2017, which was driven by a combination of tight supply from major producing regions and surging demand from Asian markets.

The EU's trade deficit in cashew nuts widened significantly

Over the decade, the EU's trade balance deteriorated from −€633 million to −€1,203 million (−90% change). While this is an inevitable structural feature of a product the EU cannot produce domestically, the rapid widening reflects the combined effect of surging import volumes and the EU's limited leverage in global cashew markets. The high and stable trade intensity (around 93%) and export propensity declining from 59% to 52% further indicate that the EU is becoming an even more consumption-focused market for this product.

Conclusion

The EU cashew nut market over 2015–2025 is a story of rapid demand growth, geographic reconfiguration, and structural vulnerability. Consumption nearly doubled, but the EU's capacity to influence this market remained constrained by its near-total reliance on imports. The rise of Vietnam as a processing superpower and the emergence of Côte d'Ivoire as a direct supplier reshaped the origin landscape, while India and Indonesia saw their positions erode. Within the EU, Germany consolidated its role as a major import hub alongside the Netherlands, and export diversification increased — though the EU remains fundamentally a net importer.

The persistent 83–84% net import reliance, combined with growing concentration of imports (HHI rising to 5,384) and high volatility among newer African suppliers, suggests that supply chain resilience should remain a policy concern. The 2017 price shocks demonstrated the market's sensitivity to global disruptions, and the growing role of West African producers — while promising for diversification — introduces new sources of volatility linked to agricultural and infrastructure risks. For European food manufacturers and policymakers, the key challenge going forward will be balancing the benefits of competitive global sourcing against the risks of deepening import dependency in an increasingly uncertain geopolitical and climatic environment.