Market evolution: Raisins (CN 080620) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyzes the trade dynamics of dried grapes (raisins), classified under customs code 080620, for the European Union with non-EU partners over the period from 2015 to 2025. Over this decade, the EU raisin market has undergone a significant transformation, characterized by a pivot from volume-based growth to value-based growth. While the physical quantity traded has seen periods of stagnation or decline, the total value of both imports and exports has risen substantially, driven by escalating unit prices. This shift, coupled with evolving supplier relationships and structural changes within the bloc, has reshaped the market's stability and strategic orientation. The analysis draws exclusively on the provided data to identify and interpret these key dynamics.

A market defined by value growth over volume expansion

The decade-long trend for the EU's external trade in raisins reveals a clear decoupling of value from volume. While the quantities imported and exported have shown volatility or decline, the monetary value of this trade has increased, indicating a period of rising prices and a potential shift towards higher-value products or market segments.

Import volumes stabilize while import values surge

The EU's dependence on imported raisins remained profound throughout the period, with net import reliance hovering around 86-90% (Net Import Reliance). However, the nature of this import reliance evolved. The quantity of imports started at 236,269 tonnes in 2015, peaked at 238,401 tonnes in 2019, and then retreated to 218,035 tonnes by 2025, representing a net decrease of 7.7%. In stark contrast, the value of imports rose from €435 million to €608 million over the same period, a 39.7% increase. This is explained by a dramatic 51.4% rise in the average import price, from €1,842 per tonne in 2015 to €2,789 per tonne in 2025 (Trade Overview).

Export performance driven by price appreciation

A similar value-over-volume trend is observed in exports. The quantity exported by the EU fell sharply from 21,877 tonnes in 2015 to 13,936 tonnes in 2025, a 36.3% decline. Despite this, export value grew by 32.4%, from €38.2 million to €50.6 million. This was entirely fueled by a 108.0% explosion in export prices, which climbed from €1,745 to €3,630 per tonne. This indicates that while the EU is exporting less in physical terms, it is commanding significantly higher prices for its shipments, which may reflect a focus on niche, processed, or branded products rather than bulk commodity trade.

Internal production shows a contradictory trend

EU internal production data for 2025 shows a declining volume trend. Production quantity fell from 60.5 million kg in 2015 to 40.0 million kg in 2025, a 33.8% decrease. Interestingly, the value of that production rose by 26.1%, from €63.4 million to €80.0 million. This reinforces the narrative of pervasive price inflation within the raisin market, which has affected both external and internal dimensions.

Shifting supplier geographies and concentrated sourcing

The map of the EU's raisin suppliers underwent a significant reshuffling between 2015 and 2025. Traditional partners saw mixed fortunes, while new or previously minor suppliers gained substantial market share, altering the bloc's supply risk profile.

The enduring dominance of Türkiye alongside the rise of new suppliers

Türkiye remained the EU's principal raisin supplier by a wide margin throughout the period, with import values growing from €224 million to €247 million (a 10.3% increase) (Top Partners by Value). However, its share of the import market eroded as other suppliers grew more rapidly. The most striking growth came from South Africa, whose exports to the EU surged by 140.1% to reach €121 million, making it the second-largest supplier. China and Uzbekistan also experienced explosive growth of 406.2% and 171.3%, respectively. Conversely, the United States' share collapsed, with its exports to the EU falling by 55.7%.

Reduced market concentration indicates sourcing diversification

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for import concentration by value fell from 3,041 in 2015 to 2,303 in 2025, a 24.3% decline (Concentration). A lower HHI indicates a less concentrated market. This suggests the EU has successfully diversified its raisin supply sources, reducing its over-reliance on any single country and potentially mitigating supply chain risks.

Export destinations show more stable but less concentrated patterns

For EU exports, the United Kingdom was the dominant and most stable destination, with its share growing slightly to €22.1 million in 2025. Other key markets included Norway and Switzerland, which saw significant growth (481.6% and 139.7%, respectively). The HHI for exports also fell by 25.4%, indicating that the EU's export markets also became more diversified over the decade, albeit with persistent reliance on the UK.

Internal EU structure: Specialisation and price-driven value shifts

Within the EU, the raisin trade exhibits a clear pattern of specialization among member states and a pronounced shift in the product mix that aligns with the overarching theme of rising unit values.

Specialization patterns highlight Greece's niche and the Netherlands' trade role

Analysis of comparative advantage reveals stark differences among EU members. Greece emerges as the most specialised exporter, with a Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA) of 0.85, indicating a strong, export-focused raisin industry (Specialisation). The Netherlands, while not a major producer, has a high RSCA of 0.41, reflecting its role as a key re-export and logistics hub. In contrast, countries like Ireland and Portugal show no comparative disadvantage (negative RSCA), consistent with being primarily consumers.

The import basket shows volume decline in sultanas and price increases across categories

Sultanas (08062030) dominate the EU's import volume, but their quantity fell from 172,577 tonnes in 2015 to 155,166 tonnes in 2025. The category "Other dried grapes" (08062090) also saw a volume decline from 59,267 to 58,629 tonnes. Crucially, all three sub-categories—currants, sultanas, and others—experienced significant price inflation. The price for imported sultanas rose from €1,793 to €2,870 per tonne (+60%), and for "other dried grapes" from €2,002 to €2,609 per tonne (+30%). This confirms that the value growth in imports is a market-wide phenomenon, not limited to a single product segment.

Export value is increasingly concentrated in higher-priced segments

The EU's export structure also shifted towards higher-value items. While currants (08062010) remained the largest export category by volume, its quantity fell from 15,234 to 8,283 tonnes. Meanwhile, the value of "other dried grapes" (08062090) exports grew strongly despite stable volumes, due to a price surge from €2,258 to €4,191 per tonne (+86%). This suggests the EU is increasingly exporting differentiated or processed raisin products that command premium prices in international markets, aligning with the broader value-over-volume trend.

Conclusion

The EU's raisin market from 2015 to 2025 is a story of maturing trade dynamics defined by value resilience. Faced with stagnant or declining physical trade volumes, the market's value grew substantially, driven by a sustained period of price inflation affecting imports, exports, and internal production. This economic shift was complemented by a strategic rebalancing of supply chains, where the EU reduced its concentration risk by diversifying sources away from dominant suppliers like Türkiye towards fast-growing suppliers in South Africa, Central Asia, and China. Internally, the trade patterns point to increasing specialization, with Greece solidifying its export niche and the Netherlands enhancing its logistical role, while the product mix shifted towards higher-value categories. Ultimately, the data depicts a market that has adapted to cost pressures by focusing on value over volume, while proactively managing supply-side risks through geographical diversification.