Market evolution: Grapes (CN 080610) — 2015–2025

Introduction

Fresh grapes (CN 080610) represent one of the EU's most significant fresh-fruit trade categories. Over the period 2015–2025, the EU's trade in this product underwent a fundamental transformation: imports surged by 65.1% in value (from €902 million to €1,489 million) while the trade deficit nearly doubled, reaching €1,058 million by 2025. Meanwhile, export values rose modestly by 16.7% even as volumes declined, pointing to a structural shift toward higher unit values on the outbound side. This report examines three key dynamics underpinning this evolution: the deepening import dependence, the geographic reorientation of supplier relationships, and the interplay of price movements, volatility, and supply shocks that shaped the market over the decade. The analysis relies on EU trade data for CN 080610.

1. Surging Imports and a Widening Structural Deficit

The most striking feature of the EU fresh-grape market over 2015–2025 is the sustained and accelerating growth of imports from non-EU countries, which has significantly outpaced the evolution of exports and produced a structural widening of the trade deficit.

1.1 Import volumes expanded by more than 50%

EU imports of fresh grapes grew from 445,761 tonnes in 2015 to 674,930 tonnes in 2025, a rise of 51.4%. In value terms, the increase was even steeper at 65.1%, climbing from €902 million to €1,489 million. This indicates that the EU not only absorbed more tonnes of grapes from third countries but also paid progressively more per tonne. The general overview confirms that the minimum import value of €880 million was recorded at the start of the period, while the maximum of €1,489 million coincided with the final year.

1.2 The trade deficit nearly doubled

The EU ran a persistent deficit in fresh-grape trade throughout the period. The deficit widened from €533 million in 2015 to €1,058 million in 2025 — an increase of 98.6%. This reflects the asymmetric trajectories of imports and exports: while imports grew strongly, export values rose only modestly (from €369 million to €431 million), and export volumes actually contracted by 11.3% (from 185,202 tonnes to 164,332 tonnes). The EU thus became progressively more reliant on non-EU suppliers to satisfy domestic consumption.

1.3 Fresh table grapes account for virtually all trade

The product segment breakdown reveals that fresh table grapes (CN 08061010) dominate both imports and exports. In 2025, table grapes accounted for 99.8% of import volume (673,695 tonnes of 674,930 tonnes total) and 97.4% of export volume. The non-table-grape subcategory (CN 08061090, covering mainly wine-destined or other fresh grapes) remained marginal and even declined from 2,782 tonnes to 1,235 tonnes on the import side. This near-total dominance of table grapes means that the trade dynamics described in this report are essentially a story about the European consumer's appetite for eating grapes sourced from overseas.

2. Geographic Reorientation: New Southern-Hemisphere and Emerging Suppliers

The decade saw a marked shift in the geographic composition of EU grape imports, with Southern Hemisphere traditional suppliers reinforced by rapidly growing contributions from emerging origins, while EU exports remained concentrated in a few Western European producers.

2.1 India, Peru, and Egypt emerged as high-growth suppliers

Among the top seven import partners by value, the fastest growth came from India (+253.3%, from €57 million to €201 million), Peru (+128.1%, from €135 million to €308 million), and Egypt (+108.0%, from €76 million to €158 million). These three origins collectively grew from €267 million to €667 million, more than compensating for the more modest growth of the traditional largest supplier, South Africa (+54.0%, from €300 million to €462 million). Chile grew only 6.9% (€167 million to €179 million), while Türkiye was essentially flat (+2.0%, €23 million to €23 million).

India's tripling of export value to the EU is particularly remarkable and reflects the country's rapid expansion of table-grape cultivation (notably the Thompson Seedless variety) for European markets, aided by counter-seasonal supply windows. Peru's strong growth consolidates its position as the second-largest supplier, while Egypt's doubling signals its growing role as a near-year-round Mediterranean-climate supplier.

2.2 The Netherlands functions as the EU's dominant entry gateway

The distribution of imports among EU member states reveals an extreme concentration in the Netherlands, which imported €1,119 million in 2025 — 75.2% of the EU total — up from €691 million in 2015 (+62.0%). This points to the "Rotterdam gateway" effect: fresh grapes entering via Dutch ports and auction markets are subsequently redistributed across the EU. Other member states recorded high percentage growth from much smaller bases: Slovenia (+449.2%), Romania (+342.3%), Spain (+265.9%), and Ireland (+172.5%). Germany, by contrast, saw its direct imports decline by 40.9%, suggesting a possible shift toward sourcing via intermediary hubs.

2.3 EU exports remained concentrated in Spain, Italy, and the Netherlands

On the export side, Spain (€171 million, +22.8%), Italy (€126 million, +25.0%), and the Netherlands (€90 million, +62.7%) together accounted for roughly 90% of the EU's outbound trade. The most dramatic decline came from Greece, whose grape exports fell from €38 million to €12 million (−69.2%), likely reflecting structural pressures from rising production costs, climate-related yield volatility, and intensifying competition from non-EU Mediterranean suppliers. France also contracted (−33.4%, from €15 million to €10 million). Meanwhile, Poland (+83.9%) and Bosnia and Herzegovina (+135.3%) recorded notable growth, albeit from low baselines.

2.4 Export concentration declined while import concentration remained stable

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for imports by value hovered around 1,843–1,858 over the period, indicating moderate concentration that barely changed (+0.8%). For exports, however, the HHI fell from 3,463 to 2,884 (−16.7%), moving from high to moderate concentration. This suggests that while the EU's supplier base remained broadly stable in structure, its export market became somewhat more diversified — consistent with the decline of Greece and the emergence of smaller exporters alongside the continued dominance of Spain and Italy.

3. Price Asymmetries, Volatility, and a Notable Supply Shock

The period was characterised by divergent price trajectories on the import and export sides, moderate volatility across key bilateral flows, and at least one significant supply shock.

3.1 Export unit values rose much faster than import prices

A notable feature of the 2015–2025 period is the growing asymmetry between import and export unit values. Import prices rose 9.0% (from €2,024/t to €2,206/t), while export prices surged 31.5% (from €1,994/t to €2,622/t). By 2025, the EU was exporting grapes at a €416/t premium over its import price, reversing the small discount that existed at the start of the period.

This widening gap likely reflects the EU's positioning as a producer of higher-quality or branded table grapes — particularly from Italy and Spain — destined for premium markets such as Switzerland and the United Kingdom. The product segment data confirms that export table-grape unit values rose from €1,999/t to €2,644/t (+32.3%), while imported table grapes climbed from €2,029/t to €2,206/t (+8.7%).

3.2 Volatility was concentrated in specific bilateral flows

The volatility analysis reveals wide dispersion in the coefficient of variation (CV) across partners. On the import side, the United Kingdom showed the highest volatility (CV = 0.99), though this reflects a very small trade flow rather than instability of a major supply channel. Among significant suppliers, the Republic of Moldova (CV = 0.43) and Peru (CV = 0.34) exhibited the most pronounced swings, while South Africa — the largest supplier — demonstrated reassuring stability (CV = 0.16). On the export side, the United Arab Emirates (CV = 0.84), Belarus (CV = 0.74), Serbia (CV = 0.61), and the Russian Federation (CV = 0.60) displayed high volatility, reflecting the sensitivity of these smaller flows to geopolitical and logistical disruptions.

3.3 A notable price shock hit imports from Peru in 2022

The data flags a significant supply shock: in 2022, EU imports from Peru experienced a price shock with an abnormality score of 12.7 and a price shift of −13.7%. This coincided with Peru's 20.6% share of total import value that year, making the shock economically significant. The likely cause was a combination of supply disruption (Peru faced heavy flooding linked to a La Niña episode in early 2023 affecting the 2022/23 season) and shifts in shipping logistics. Despite this shock, Peru's bilateral trade recovered strongly, with its import value rising to €308 million by 2025.

3.4 The United Kingdom remained the EU's most stable export destination

Among the top export partners, the United Kingdom was by far the largest and most stable destination, absorbing €211 million in 2025 (49% of total exports) with a CV of just 0.11. Switzerland (CV = 0.06) and Norway (CV = 0.08) were similarly stable, reflecting the geographic proximity and well-established supply chains linking EU producers to these EEA/EFTA markets. The stability of these three destinations underpins the resilience of the EU's grape export sector, even as its volumes declined overall.

Conclusion

Over 2015–2025, the EU's fresh-grape market evolved in three principal directions. First, the Union became significantly more import-dependent: imports surged by 65% in value while export volumes contracted, nearly doubling the trade deficit to over €1 billion. Second, the supplier landscape diversified geographically, with India, Peru, and Egypt emerging as high-growth origins alongside the still-dominant South Africa, while the Netherlands consolidated its role as the EU's primary import gateway, handling three-quarters of all inbound trade. Third, a growing price asymmetry emerged, with EU export unit values rising more than three times faster than import prices — suggesting that European producers increasingly occupy a premium niche while relying on competitive-priced imports for volume consumption.

Looking ahead, several structural factors will shape the market: the continued expansion of Southern Hemisphere and Asian supply capacity, the potential impact of climate change on both EU domestic production (Greece's decline being an early signal) and overseas suppliers, and the evolving consumer demand for seedless and specialty table-grape varieties. The widening deficit suggests that the EU's structural reliance on non-EU fresh grapes is set to deepen further.