Market evolution: Table grapes (CN 08061010) — 2015–2025

Introduction

Fresh table grapes (CN 08061010) occupy a significant place in the EU's fruit import basket, given that the Union's own production is geographically limited to a handful of southern Member States. Over the 2015–2025 period, the EU's external trade in this product has undergone notable structural changes: import values surged by over 65 %, the trade deficit nearly doubled, and the supply landscape shifted meaningfully toward Southern Hemisphere and emerging origins. At the same time, export values grew more modestly, driven largely by rising unit prices rather than expanding volumes. This report examines these dynamics across three axes — the macro trade balance, the geographic reconfiguration of supply, and the evolving concentration and volatility profile of the market — drawing exclusively on Eurostat customs data for the period in question.

For general context, see the Scope & Definitions section of the Trade Dashboard.

1. A Widening Structural Deficit: Import Growth Outpaces Exports Threefold

1.1 Import values surged while export values grew more slowly

Between 2015 and 2025, the value of EU imports of fresh table grapes rose from €899 million to €1,486 million, an increase of 65.3 %. Over the same period, export values climbed from €355 million to €423 million (+19.2 %). The result was a near-doubling of the trade deficit in value terms, from –€544 million to –€1,063 million (–95.4 %). The EU thus remains a structurally import-dependent market for table grapes, and that dependence has deepened considerably.

Source: General Overview

1.2 Import volume growth was the primary driver; export volume actually declined

The import side saw quantities climb from 442,979 t to 673,695 t (+52.1 %), indicating that the EU market absorbed substantially more table grapes from third countries. Import unit prices rose only modestly (+8.7 %, from €2,029/t to €2,206/t). On the export side, however, the story was inverted: volumes fell by 9.9 % (from 177,561 t to 160,029 t), while unit prices jumped by 32.3 % (from €1,999/t to €2,644/t). Export revenue growth was therefore entirely price-driven, suggesting that EU exporters (predominantly Spain, Italy and the Netherlands) focused on higher-value segments or benefited from general commodity inflation rather than expanding market reach.

Source: General Overview

1.3 The Netherlands functions as the EU's principal entry hub for third-country grapes

Within the EU, the Netherlands was by far the largest importer by value in 2025 (€1,119 million, up 62.1 % from 2015), reflecting the country's role as a distribution hub via Rotterdam. Spain, notably, more than tripled its import value (from €32 million to €117 million, +266.8 %), consistent with its growing role as a year-round supplier leveraging counter-seasonal Southern Hemisphere sourcing. Smaller importers like Slovenia (+454.3 %), Romania (+344.8 %) and Ireland (+175.6 %) also saw striking growth from low bases. Germany, the third-largest importer, saw its imports decline by 40.9 % to €34 million — potentially reflecting supply-chain rerouting via the Netherlands.

Source: Top EU reporters by value

2. Geographic Reconfiguration: Emerging Origins Gain Ground on Established Suppliers

2.1 South Africa consolidated its lead, but India and Peru grew the fastest

South Africa remained the EU's single largest supplier throughout the period, with imports rising from €299 million to €461 million (+54.1 %). However, the most dramatic growth came from India (+253.3 %, from €57 million to €201 million) and Peru (+128.3 %, from €134 million to €307 million), both of which leveraged counter-seasonal production windows and expanded export capacity. Egypt also doubled its contribution (+110.6 %, from €75 million to €157 million). Chile, historically a major supplier, grew only modestly (+6.8 %), while Türkiye remained roughly flat (+1.9 %).

Source: Top partners by value

2.2 EU grape exports remained concentrated around the United Kingdom and Switzerland

On the export side, the United Kingdom absorbed roughly half of all EU exports by value (€209 million in 2025, up just 3.4 % from 2015), underscoring its post-Brexit reliance on EU supply chains for fresh produce. Switzerland (+40.3 %) and Norway (+71.5 %) were the next-largest destinations, both growing steadily. Russia showed significant volatility (value more than doubled to €26 million, but from a low and erratic base), while Belarus declined by 41.5 %. Exports to Bosnia and Herzegovina (+131.9 %) and South Africa (+80.6 %) grew sharply from small bases, suggesting niche re-export or counter-seasonal flows.

Source: Top partners by value

2.3 Spain and Italy dominate EU exports, while Greece's role has sharply diminished

Among EU Member States exporting table grapes to third countries, Spain (€170 million, +26.8 %) and Italy (€125 million, +28.6 %) together accounted for roughly 70 % of EU export value in 2025. The Netherlands, largely acting as a re-export hub, saw exports rise by 66.3 % to €89 million. Greece, however, experienced a striking decline of 69.0 % (from €36 million to €11 million), which may reflect a combination of reduced competitiveness, domestic production challenges, and the growing role of Eastern Mediterranean competitors (notably Egypt and Türkiye) in overlapping export markets. Portugal, though smaller, more than tripled its exports (+192.9 %).

Source: Top EU reporters by value

3. Market Concentration, Trade Stability, and the 2022 Peru Price Shock

3.1 Import-source concentration remained broadly stable; export destinations diversified

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for EU imports by value fluctuated in a narrow band, moving from 1,848 in 2015 to 1,860 in 2025 (+0.6 %). This indicates a moderately concentrated import market that has neither consolidated nor fragmented meaningfully — the rise of India and Peru has offset the relative decline of Chile and Türkiye. By contrast, the export-side HHI by value fell from 3,562 to 2,923 (–18.0 %), indicating meaningful diversification away from near-total dependence on the UK towards Switzerland, Norway and smaller markets. Still, an HHI of nearly 3,000 on the export side remains significantly higher than the import side, reflecting the persistent dominance of the UK as the EU's primary grape export destination.

Source: Concentration (HHI)

3.2 Supply volatility was lowest for South Africa and Morocco; highest for smaller or politically unstable partners

Looking at the coefficient of variation (CV) of import values over the period, Morocco (CV = 0.12) and South Africa (CV = 0.16) stand out as the most stable suppliers — consistent with their mature, well-established export sectors. Brazil (CV = 0.20) and Chile (CV = 0.18) also showed considerable stability. By contrast, imports from Moldova (CV = 0.45) and North Macedonia (CV = 0.36) were far more volatile, reflecting smaller supply bases and greater vulnerability to weather or logistical disruptions. The United Kingdom figure (CV = 0.99) likely reflects very small or irregular re-import volumes rather than true supply instability.

On the export side, the EU's shipments to Switzerland were remarkably stable (CV = 0.05), while flows to the United Arab Emirates (CV = 0.85), Belarus (CV = 0.74), Serbia (CV = 0.62) and Russia (CV = 0.60) showed high volatility — consistent with geopolitical disruption, sanctions effects, and the episodic nature of smaller-market demand.

Source: Volatility bars

3.3 A significant price shock from Peru was detected in 2022

The data flags one notable shock event: a price shock on EU imports from Peru centred on 2022, with an abnormality score of 12.5 and a price shift of –13.7 %. Given that Peru accounted for 20.7 % of EU table-grape import value that year, this event had material market-wide implications. The most likely explanations are a combination of oversupply from expanded Peruvian vineyard area (particularly in the Ica region), global logistics normalisation following COVID-era disruptions, and exchange-rate effects. This shock contributed to a temporary dip in the average import price before the broader upward trend reasserted itself in 2023–2025.

Source: Supply shocks

Conclusion

Over the 2015–2025 decade, the EU table-grape market has become more import-dependent, more geographically diversified on the supply side, and structurally more expensive in terms of unit values. The trade deficit nearly doubled as import volumes grew by over 50 % while export volumes contracted. The supply landscape has shifted: India and Peru have emerged as major growth origins alongside the long-dominant South Africa, while Chile and Türkiye have stagnated. EU exports, meanwhile, remain heavily oriented towards the UK and have relied on price increases rather than volume growth to sustain revenue. Greece's sharp export decline and the 2022 Peru price shock are among the most noteworthy events of the period. Looking ahead, the continued expansion of Indian and Peruvian capacity, the consolidation of Spain and Italy as premium exporters, and the EU's structural dependence on Southern Hemisphere counter-seasonal supply are likely to define the next phase of this market's evolution.