Market evolution: Pneumatic tyres (CN 4011) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyzes the trade in new pneumatic tyres (CN 4011) for the European Union over the period 2015–2025. The overview data reveals a fundamental transformation in the EU's trade position. While the value of both imports and exports grew, the underlying volume dynamics diverged sharply. The EU transitioned from a position of near trade balance to a significant net importer, driven by a surge in import volumes. Concurrently, exports shifted towards higher-value products. Geopolitical events, such as sanctions, and structural shifts in supply chains are key factors behind the evolution of trade partners and market vulnerability.

1. A Structural Shift from Balance to Deficit

The EU's trade in pneumatic tyres underwent a dramatic structural shift over the decade, moving from a slight trade surplus to a substantial deficit. This change was fueled by a robust increase in import volumes contrasted with stagnating export volumes.

1.1. The Emergence of a Large Trade Deficit

In 2015, the EU enjoyed a slight trade surplus of €132 million. By 2025, this had transformed into a deficit of -€2.14 billion. This shift was driven by a 51.2% increase in the value of imports (to €10.71 billion) versus a more modest 18.7% rise in export value (to €8.56 billion). The core driver was a 41.5% surge in import quantity (in tonnes), while export quantity fell by 17.6%.

Source: General Overview

1.2. Price Divergence Highlights a Market Shift

The divergence in price trends further underscores the structural shift. Import prices in EUR per tonne increased by only 6.8%, indicating that the EU sourced increasing volumes at relatively stable unit costs. In contrast, export prices surged by 44.1%, suggesting that EU exporters successfully shifted their product mix towards higher-value or specialized tyres. This is confirmed by a 42.4% rise in the export price per piece, despite falling piece counts.

1.3. Growing Import Dependency

The net import reliance (the share of the EU market supplied by imports) flipped from -0.99% (a slight net exporter) in 2015 to 5.71% in 2025. This increased dependency is a vulnerability, highlighted by the Vulnerability tab. The intensity of trade (imports + exports relative to production) also grew from 36.2% to 61.2%, indicating the EU tyre market is deeply integrated into global supply chains.

2. Partner Realignment and Supply Shocks

The geographical pattern of EU tyre trade evolved significantly, with import sources diversifying towards Asia while export markets consolidated around stable Western partners, albeit with major disruptions.

2.1. Import Sources: Asian Ascent and Increased Concentration

China solidified its position as the EU's paramount supplier, with import values more than doubling (+102.7%) to reach €3.63 billion in 2025, representing 36.5% of total imports. Other major growth came from Türkiye, India, and Thailand. Japan and Korea, while still significant, saw their shares stagnate or grow more slowly. Despite the growth from multiple partners, the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for import concentration rose from 1,228 to 1,606, indicating a less diversified import base dominated by China.

2.2. Export Markets: Stability and Geopolitical Disruption

The top export partners remained the United Kingdom and the United States, which together absorbed 41% of EU exports in 2025. Exports to the UK saw a slight decline (-7.5%), while those to the US grew by 38.9%. The most dramatic change was the collapse of exports to the Russian Federation, plummeting by 86.9% from €313 million in 2015 to just €41 million in 2025, a clear consequence of post-2022 sanctions.

2.3. Price Shocks and Volatility

The period was marked by significant price shocks, particularly in imports. The most severe shock events were price spikes from the UK in 2021 (+61.5%), from India in 2022 (+22.2%), and from China in 2022 (+37.1%). Volatility (measured by coefficient of variation) was highest for import flows from the UK (0.82) and Vietnam (0.81), and for exports to Russia (0.68), reflecting the instability of these channels.

3. Domestic Production and Internal Reorientation

EU domestic production underwent a clear reorientation, with a pronounced shift from volume to value. This was accompanied by a significant internal reallocation of production capacity among Member States.

3.1. Production Shift: Fewer Tyres, Higher Value

According to the production volumes data, EU production quantity in items fell by 20.7%, from 361 million pieces in 2015 to 286 million in 2025. However, the value of that production increased by 47.6%, rising from €14.03 billion to €20.71 billion. This clearly indicates a strategic move towards producing higher-margin, technologically advanced tyres.

3.2. Specialization Among Member States

Production is concentrated in a few specialized Member States. In 2025, the most specialized producers, measured by Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA), were Luxembourg (RSCA 0.76), Romania (0.65), and Slovakia (0.52). At the other end, Malta, Ireland, and Greece showed no specialization. This internal division of labor is reflected in the EU reporter data, where Germany, Spain, and France are major both importers and exporters, acting as processing and re-export hubs.

3.3. Export-Oriented Production Strategy

The EU's production strategy is increasingly export-oriented. The export propensity (exports as a share of production) surged from 22.5% in 2015 to 42.4% in 2025. This indicates that despite producing fewer units, the EU is selling a much larger share of its output abroad, capitalizing on its high-value specialization.

Conclusion

The EU pneumatic tyre market between 2015 and 2025 has been reshaped by two concurrent trends: import dependency and export value enhancement. The EU has become a net importer, relying heavily on Asian suppliers, especially China, to meet volume demand. Simultaneously, its domestic production and exports have pivoted decisively towards the premium segment, successfully extracting greater value from fewer units. This structural shift has increased the EU's trade vulnerability but also demonstrates a successful move up the value chain. The market is now characterized by a dual structure: a mass market supplied largely from abroad, and a high-end production base oriented towards global export, particularly to the US and UK. Future resilience will depend on managing supply chain concentration risks and maintaining technological leadership in high-value segments.