Market evolution: Retreaded or used rubber tyres (CN 4012) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyses the trade dynamics of CN 4012 — a broad category encompassing retreaded pneumatic tyres, used pneumatic tyres, solid or cushion tyres, interchangeable tyre treads, and tyre flaps, all of rubber — in the European Union's extra-EU trade from 2015 to 2025. Over this decade, the EU's trade in this product group underwent significant structural shifts: import values rose while volumes contracted, export volumes grew substantially, domestic production collapsed, and the EU's net import reliance climbed from near-zero to over 9%. At the same time, the geographic composition of both imports and exports was reshaped by Brexit, evolving supply chains in Asia, and deepening trade links with West Africa. The following three sections unpack these dynamics in detail.

Overview on the Trade Dashboard

1. Rising values, diverging volumes: the price-driven import surge versus volume-led export growth

1.1 EU imports grew in value but shrank in volume — a story of rising unit prices

Between 2015 and 2025, the value of EU extra-EU imports of CN 4012 rose from €251.5 million to €307.9 million, an increase of 22.4%. However, over the same period, the quantity imported fell from 137,307 tonnes to 121,179 tonnes, a decline of 11.7%. The reconciling factor is a sharp increase in the average import price, which climbed from €1,832 per tonne to €2,541 per tonne — a rise of 38.7%.

This pattern indicates that the EU is importing fewer physical units of rubber tyres and related products, but paying significantly more per tonne. The price escalation is partly driven by a compositional shift toward higher-value product segments. In particular, imports of retreaded aircraft tyres (CN 401213) saw their unit price per tonne surge from €2,369 to €12,698 over the period — a more than fivefold increase — reflecting a shift toward premium, specialised products. Meanwhile, the largest import category by value, solid or cushion tyres and tyre treads (CN 401290), saw its unit price climb from €2,419/t to €3,209/t, suggesting broad-based cost inflation in this segment.

1.2 EU exports expanded on both volume and value, but volume drove the growth

EU exports told a contrasting story. Export value rose from €237.8 million to €283.8 million (+19.3%), while export volume grew more rapidly, from 209,519 tonnes to 257,095 tonnes (+22.7%). The average export price edged down slightly from €1,135/t to €1,104/t (−2.7%).

The EU thus exported more volume at stable-to-declining prices, indicating competitive positioning in the lower-cost segments of this market. The dominant export product is used pneumatic tyres (CN 401220), which accounted for €121.5 million — 43% of total CN 4012 exports by value in 2025 — and whose price declined from €537/t to €581/t (with a peak of €675/t in 2024).

1.3 The trade balance deteriorated, driven by rising import prices

The EU's trade balance in CN 4012 swung between surplus and deficit across the period, but the most recent years have settled into a persistent deficit. Starting at −€13.7 million in 2015, the balance reached its worst at −€37.6 million (around 2022) and stood at −€24.1 million in 2025. The maximum surplus of €33.5 million occurred during an intermediate period. The widening deficit is not due to an import volume surge — volumes actually fell — but rather to the much higher prices paid per tonne of imports relative to exports. The import-to-export price ratio widened from 1.6:1 in 2015 to 2.3:1 in 2025, meaning the EU now pays more than double per tonne for what it imports compared to what it exports.

2. Geographic realignment: Brexit, Asia's rise, and West African export markets

2.1 Brexit reshaped EU–UK trade flows in both directions

The United Kingdom's departure from the EU single market is clearly visible in the data. On the import side, the UK was the second-largest supplier of CN 4012 to the EU in 2015 (€70.5 million), but by 2025 its exports to the EU had fallen to €47.5 million (−32.6%). On the export side, however, the UK remained the EU's largest single extra-EU export destination and actually grew strongly, from €57.0 million to €95.3 million (+67.1%). This asymmetry — the EU increasing its exports to the UK while UK exports to the EU declined — may reflect the shift in the UK's regulatory framework post-Brexit and the reorientation of supply chains, with UK buyers increasingly sourcing from EU-based suppliers for retreaded and used tyres.

Top partners

2.2 Sri Lanka consolidated its position as the leading import source; the US, India, and China surged

Sri Lanka was the EU's largest import partner throughout the period, growing from €101.0 million to €132.4 million (+31.2%) and accounting for 43% of all CN 4012 imports by value in 2025. This dominance is concentrated in the solid/cushion tyre and tyre tread segment (CN 401290), where Sri Lanka's established rubber industry provides a cost advantage.

More striking is the rapid growth of newer suppliers:

The United States saw the most dramatic growth (+234.7%), jumping from a minor supplier to the fourth-largest import source. India more than doubled its exports to the EU (+130.2%), and China grew by 78%. These shifts suggest the EU is diversifying its supplier base beyond its traditional sources.

2.3 West Africa is the EU's primary export hinterland for used tyres

A distinctive feature of EU CN 4012 exports is the prominent role of West African destinations. Alongside the UK (the single largest market), the top seven export partners include Benin, Senegal, Ghana, Nigeria, and Côte d'Ivoire — all West African states. Nigeria saw the fastest growth at +112.5% (from €2.4 million to €5.1 million). These countries are primarily destinations for used pneumatic tyres (CN 401220), which are the EU's single largest export product in this category. The growing demand for affordable tyres in developing African economies, combined with EU regulations that may limit the re-use of worn tyres domestically, creates a natural export channel.

2.4 EU member state roles: Germany leads, Spain surges, Poland emerges

Within the EU, Germany was the largest single importer (€75.7 million in 2025) and exporter (€72.6 million) of CN 4012, reflecting its role as a major logistics hub and tyre market. Belgium, France, and the Netherlands followed as significant importers. The most notable change was Spain, whose exports surged by 302.6% from €11.2 million to €45.0 million, making it the fourth-largest EU exporter — likely reflecting the growth of Spanish tyre retreading and collection industries. Poland's imports also grew sharply (+242.7%), potentially linked to its expanding transport and logistics sector.

Top reporters

3. Collapsing production, rising vulnerability, and growing market concentration

3.1 EU domestic production of CN 4012 products declined dramatically

The most structurally significant trend in the data is the collapse of EU domestic production. Production quantity fell from 35.2 million items in 2015 to 11.9 million items in 2025, a staggering decline of 66.3%. Production value also fell, from €916 million to €693 million (−24.4%), though the smaller drop in value relative to quantity indicates rising unit values for what remains of EU production.

Production volumes

This collapse has multiple likely drivers: consolidation in the European tyre retreading industry as new tyre prices have fallen (making retreading less cost-competitive), stricter EU environmental and safety regulations, and the offshoring of production to lower-cost locations such as Sri Lanka, India, and China.

3.2 Net import reliance climbed from near-zero to over 9%

The EU's net import reliance for CN 4012 — measured as the trade balance divided by apparent consumption — shifted from a negligible 1.2% in 2015 to 9.1% in 2025 (a +650.7% change). At its peak, this indicator reached 13.5%. The EU briefly achieved a slight net export position (−2.3%) in one year, but the overall trend is clearly toward greater dependence on non-EU suppliers.

Net import reliance

Trade intensity — the combined share of imports and exports in the EU's total consumption and production — more than tripled from 13.8% to 48.0%. Similarly, export propensity (exports as a share of EU production) rose from 6.8% to 28.1%. Together, these indicators reveal an increasingly trade-dependent sector: the EU is both importing more (relative to domestic output) and exporting a larger share of what it produces.

3.3 Import concentration remained moderate; export concentration increased

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for imports declined slightly from 2,480 to 2,262, indicating that import sources became modestly more diversified. This is consistent with the geographic broadening described in Section 2 — the rise of new suppliers like the US, India, and China reducing the share of traditional sources.

By contrast, the export HHI rose sharply from 805 to 1,378 (+71.3%). This increase in export concentration is consistent with the growing dominance of the United Kingdom and key West African markets as export destinations. While an HHI of 1,378 still falls below the conventional 1,800 threshold for "moderate" concentration, the direction of change signals a narrowing of the EU's export base.

Concentration analysis

3.4 Supply volatility and price shocks were concentrated in specific partner relationships

Volatility analysis reveals that certain trade corridors are considerably more unstable than others. On the import side, Vietnam (coefficient of variation 0.44) and Norway (0.47) exhibited the highest price volatility, while the largest supplier Sri Lanka showed relatively low volatility (CV 0.12). On the export side, Nigeria (CV 0.36) and Senegal (CV 0.32) — both West African markets — displayed the most volatile export flows.

Three notable price shock events were detected in the data:

The 2020 India export shock — an extraordinarily large price abnormality of 360.7 and a price shift of nearly 4,500% — is likely an artefact of a very small trade flow experiencing a dramatic compositional change (e.g., a shift from low-value to very high-value items) rather than a market-wide phenomenon, given that India represented only 0.3% of export value. The Russia shock in 2021 may reflect geopolitical disruption preceding the 2022 sanctions regime. These events, while isolated, illustrate the potential for sudden dislocations in this market.

Volatility data

3.5 France and Spain show the strongest EU specialisation in this product

Analysis of revealed comparative advantage (RCA) and the Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA) index for 2025 identifies France (RSCA 0.31, RCA 1.90) and Spain (RSCA 0.28, RCA 1.79) as the most specialised EU member states in CN 4012, followed by Germany (RSCA 0.22, RCA 1.56). These three countries collectively account for the bulk of EU production and exports in this category. At the other end, Malta, Ireland, and Czechia show near-zero specialisation, indicating negligible domestic production and reliance on intra-EU or extra-EU sourcing.

Specialisation analysis

Conclusion

The EU market for CN 4012 products underwent a profound structural transformation between 2015 and 2025. Domestic production collapsed by two-thirds, driving the EU's net import reliance from near-zero to over 9%. Yet the trade picture is not one of simple decline: exports grew robustly in volume, particularly of used tyres to West Africa, and the EU maintained a strong position in specialised segments like aircraft tyre retreading. The import side, meanwhile, is characterised by rising prices on shrinking volumes — a pattern consistent with the shift toward higher-value products and increasing supplier power in segments like solid/cushion tyres from Sri Lanka. Brexit reshaped the EU–UK trade relationship in both directions, while new suppliers from Asia and the Americas diversified the import base. Looking ahead, the combination of collapsing domestic production, rising import dependence, and narrowing export concentration presents challenges for the EU's supply resilience in this sector. Policymakers may wish to monitor whether the ongoing decline in EU production capacity further erodes the bloc's self-sufficiency in a product category that intersects with road safety, circular economy goals, and strategic logistics.