Market evolution: Rubber inner tubes (CN 4013) — 2015–2025
Introduction
This report analyses the evolution of the European Union's trade in rubber inner tubes (Combined Nomenclature code 4013) over the period 2015–2025. The data reveals a market undergoing a fundamental transformation, characterized by a significant decline in domestic production, a surge in import dependency, and a reconfiguration of both import sources and export destinations. The following sections detail these structural shifts, their drivers, and the resulting implications for the EU's trade balance and supply chain resilience in this sector.
1. A Structural Shift from Production to Import Dependency
The EU's trade in rubber inner tubes has moved decisively away from domestic production towards reliance on external suppliers. This shift is evident across production volumes, trade volumes, and the trade balance.
EU domestic production has collapsed
The most dramatic change is the near-total contraction of EU production. Reported production volume fell from 37,199,758 kg in 2015 to just 8,000,000 kg in 2025, a staggering 78.5% decrease (Production volumes). The associated production value halved from €92.5 million to €40 million over the same period.
The import-export balance has deteriorated sharply
While exports have weakened, imports have grown, leading to a widening trade deficit.
| Metric (EUR) | 2015 | 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Imports | 127,253,890 | 135,039,212 | +6.1% |
| Exports | 46,022,785 | 38,952,410 | -15.4% |
| Balance | -81,231,105 | -96,086,802 | -18.3% |
Source: General Overview
The net import reliance metric underscores this dependency, increasing from 34.5% in 2015 to 65.3% in 2025 (Net import reliance). This indicates the EU now imports nearly two-thirds of its rubber inner tubes consumed domestically, up from about one-third a decade prior.
2. Reconfiguration of Global Supply and Demand Chains
The decline in EU production has been mirrored by significant changes in the geographic concentration of trade partners, both for imports and exports.
Import sources have diversified, with Vietnam emerging as a key supplier
While China remains the dominant import partner, its share has fluctuated. More notably, Vietnam has dramatically increased its role.
| Import Partner | Value 2015 (EUR) | Value 2025 (EUR) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| China | 53,522,206 | 55,742,609 | +4.1% |
| Viet Nam | 7,714,146 | 33,390,858 | +332.9% |
| Indonesia | 17,144,654 | 2,866,314 | -83.3% |
| Serbia | 9,029,761 | 12,572,839 | +39.2% |
Source: Top partners
Vietnam's imports grew from €7.7 million to €33.4 million, making it the second-largest supplier. In contrast, imports from Indonesia collapsed by 83.3%, indicating a significant shift in sourcing patterns within Southeast Asia.
The composition of exports has shifted towards developed markets
EU exports have declined in value overall, but their destination profile has changed. Exports to Algeria and Russia have nearly vanished, while those to the UK, US, Canada, and South Africa have grown.
| Export Partner | Value 2015 (EUR) | Value 2025 (EUR) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Algeria | 4,063,492 | 22,932 | -99.4% |
| Russian Fed. | 2,683,198 | 782,403 | -70.8% |
| United Kingdom | 4,465,756 | 5,633,586 | +26.2% |
| United States | 4,878,228 | 6,553,982 | +34.4% |
| Canada | 1,686,933 | 3,016,161 | +78.8% |
| South Africa | 1,318,840 | 2,325,041 | +76.3% |
Source: Top partners
This suggests a reorientation of EU export capacity towards markets with stronger economic ties or different competitive dynamics.
3. Rising Prices, Volatility, and Specialisation Dynamics
The period was marked by significant price inflation across all product sub-categories, coupled with shifts in trade volatility and intra-EU specialisation.
Unit prices have increased substantially, driven by global factors
Across both imports and exports, prices per tonne have risen markedly since 2015, reflecting broader inflationary pressures and supply chain disruptions.
| Flow & Product | Price 2015 (EUR/t) | Price 2025 (EUR/t) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Imports - Bicycle (401320) | 5,191 | 6,101 | +17.5% |
| Imports - Other (401390) | 3,327 | 4,532 | +36.2% |
| Imports - Motor car (401310) | 3,117 | 3,836 | +23.1% |
| Exports - Bicycle (401320) | 8,791 | 11,769 | +33.9% |
| Exports - Other (401390) | 3,897 | 5,268 | +35.2% |
Source: Product Segment Breakdown
Notably, a price shock was detected for imports from China in 2022, where prices surged by 39.6% (Supply shocks).
Intra-EU production specialisation is concentrated in Central and Eastern Europe
Despite the overall decline in production, certain EU members have maintained or developed a comparative advantage in this sector. In 2025, the most specialised exporters within the EU (as measured by Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage - RSCA) were:
- Poland (RSCA: 0.398)
- Netherlands (RSCA: 0.355)
- Hungary (RSCA: 0.272)
- Slovenia (RSCA: 0.191)
- Spain (RSCA: 0.144)
Source: Specialisation
This geographic clustering suggests that remaining EU production is likely concentrated in these member states, often linked to cost competitiveness or specific industrial ecosystems.
Conclusion
Over the decade from 2015 to 2025, the EU market for rubber inner tubes underwent a profound structural transformation. The near-disappearance of domestic production (down 78.5% by volume) has fundamentally altered the trade landscape, turning the EU into a major net importer with a reliance rate of over 65%. This dependency is sourced primarily from China but with a rapidly growing role for Vietnam.
The trade profile has evolved with imports rising in value while exports have declined, widening the trade deficit. Prices have increased across all segments, and the export base has reoriented towards developed economies. The remaining EU production appears geographically concentrated in Central and Eastern Europe. These dynamics point to a sector where the EU has largely ceded its manufacturing base, making it significantly more exposed to global supply chain risks and pricing pressures.