Market evolution: Reclaimed rubber in primary forms (CN 4003) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the EU's external trade in reclaimed rubber in primary forms or in plates, sheets or strip (Customs code 4003) over the 2015–2025 period. Reclaimed rubber — produced by devulcanising end-of-life tyres and other rubber waste — occupies a growing niche in the circular economy, serving as a lower-cost and more sustainable alternative to virgin rubber. Drawing on EU-level trade and production data, the analysis identifies three principal dynamics: a divergence between volume growth and value erosion on the export side, a dramatic reorientation of trade partners away from the transatlantic axis toward Asia and the Balkans, and a surge in EU domestic production that has not fully shielded the bloc from a shift in net-import reliance.

1. Volume Growth Against Price Headwinds

1.1 Export volumes surged while unit values fell sharply

Between 2015 and 2025, the EU's export quantity of reclaimed rubber rose by 29.9%, from 54,905 t to 71,318 t, reaching its highest level of the decade. Over the same span, export value grew only 2.9% (from €22.4 million to €23.0 million), implying a 20.8% decline in the average export unit price — from €408/t down to €323/t. This gap signals that EU exporters increasingly competed on volume and cost rather than on premium positioning.

1.2 Import prices moved in the opposite direction

While export prices fell, import unit prices rose by 18.2%, climbing from €887/t to €1,048/t. Import volumes simultaneously contracted by 11.2% (from 23,266 t to 20,669 t), yet import value still grew 5.1% to €21.7 million. The result is a striking three-to-one price premium: EU imports of reclaimed rubber cost roughly three times more per tonne than EU exports. This pattern is consistent with the EU importing specialised, higher-grade reclaimed rubber (for instance, from India's well-established reclaim industry) while exporting more commoditised or blended grades.

1.3 The trade balance remained marginally positive but volatile

The EU maintained a small trade surplus in reclaimed rubber over most of the period (€1.8 million in 2015, €1.4 million in 2025). However, the balance swung considerably: it dipped to a deficit of −€4.1 million in one year before recovering, and reached a peak surplus of €8.7 million in another. This volatility reflects the combined effect of shifting commodity prices and changing partner compositions.

2. A Dramatic Reorientation of Trade Partners

2.1 India consolidated its position as the dominant import supplier

India remained the EU's largest source of imports throughout the decade, accounting for roughly two-thirds of total import value at its peak. Although Indian-sourced imports declined modestly by 8.4% (from €14.8 million to €13.6 million), India's share remained overwhelming. A notable price shock was detected in 2022, when the import unit price from India surged by 30.6% — likely reflecting global energy and raw-material cost pressures in the post-pandemic period.

2.2 China and Serbia emerged rapidly as suppliers

Two of the most striking developments were the rise of China and Serbia as import sources. Chinese imports grew by 145%, from €1.7 million to €4.3 million, while Serbian imports surged from negligible levels (€3,070) to €618,854 — an increase of over 20,000%. Serbia's emergence is plausibly linked to its proximity to EU markets, its developing recycling sector, and the EU–Serbia Stabilisation and Association Agreement that facilitates preferential trade access.

2.3 Traditional Western partners declined on the import side

Imports from the United States collapsed by 69% (from €242,000 to €75,000), and those from Russia fell by 48.6% (from €245,000 to €126,000). Ukraine-origin imports also declined by 47.6%. These contractions likely reflect a combination of geopolitical disruption (sanctions on Russia, conflict in Ukraine) and a broader structural shift toward Asian and regional suppliers.

2.4 Export destinations shifted decisively toward Asia

The most dramatic changes occurred on the export side. Exports to Thailand surged by 1,671% (from €259,000 to €4.6 million), making Thailand the EU's single largest export destination by 2025. Similarly, exports to Malaysia grew by 4,107% (from €70,000 to €2.9 million) and those to the United Arab Emirates by 758% (from €155,000 to €1.3 million). India also became a major export market (+176%, reaching €1.9 million).

2.5 Transatlantic exports collapsed

In stark contrast, exports to the United States fell by 81.2%, from €4.3 million to just €808,000 — the largest absolute decline of any partner. The United States thus went from being the EU's top export market to a relatively minor one. Meanwhile, exports to the United Kingdom — the EU's largest European partner — were relatively resilient, growing 11.8% to €3.0 million, suggesting that geographic proximity and the EU–UK Trade and Cooperation Agreement helped preserve this trade flow.

2.6 Import concentration declined while export concentration edged higher

The Herfindahl–Hirschman Index (HHI) for import partners fell by 17% (from 5,358 to 4,445), indicating that the EU diversified its supply base — albeit still heavily concentrated on India. On the export side, the HHI rose by 22.9% (from 803 to 987), reflecting the growing importance of a handful of Asian destinations (Thailand, Malaysia) in the EU's export portfolio.

3. Surging Domestic Production Amid Evolving Strategic Exposure

3.1 EU production of reclaimed rubber increased multiple-fold

Perhaps the most striking data point in the entire dataset is the growth of EU domestic production. Output in volume terms rose by 374%, from approximately 31.6 million kg to 150 million kg, while production value grew by 150% (from €63.3 million to €158.6 million). This expansion almost certainly reflects the combined effect of EU waste-tire regulations (such as the End-of-Life Vehicles Directive and the Landfill Directive), growing demand for sustainable materials, and new investments in devulcanisation technology. Notably, the increase in production volume far outpaced the increase in value, mirroring the price compression seen on the export side.

3.2 The EU shifted from net exporter to marginal net importer

At the start of the period, the EU was a net exporter of reclaimed rubber (net import reliance of −6.4%). By 2025, net import reliance had turned positive at +2.3%, indicating that import value marginally exceeded export value. While this shift is small in absolute terms, it is directionally significant: despite the massive growth in domestic production, the EU's appetite for imported reclaimed rubber — particularly higher-grade product from India and the growing volumes from China — has kept pace. The minimum net import reliance (−32.2%) during one year suggests the EU was at times a very large net exporter, but this did not prove permanent.

3.3 Trade intensity and export propensity both declined

Two measures of the EU's openness to trade in this product declined over the period. Trade intensity (the share of production that is traded externally) fell from 28.2% to 23.2% (−18%), while export propensity — the share of production that is exported — dropped from 19.0% to 12.1% (−36.2%). This suggests that the EU's growing production is increasingly absorbed by the domestic market rather than channelled abroad. As the EU's circular-economy ambitions deepen and tyre manufacturers incorporate more reclaimed content, the internal market appears to be absorbing a greater share of output.

3.4 Specialisation remained concentrated in a few member states

In 2025, reclaimed-rubber export specialisation was highest in Croatia (RSCA 0.80), Denmark (0.80), Czechia (0.69), and Portugal (0.65). At the other extreme, Estonia (−0.99), Sweden (−0.98), and Hungary (−0.93) showed negligible or no specialisation in this product. Among EU exporters, Poland stood out with an extraordinary 3,690% increase in exports (from €118,000 to €4.5 million), while Czechia nearly doubled its imports to €4.6 million — both consistent with Central Europe's expanding role in rubber recycling.

Conclusion

Over the 2015–2025 decade, the EU's trade in reclaimed rubber (CN 4003) underwent a structural transformation. Domestic production grew several-fold, driven by regulatory pressure and sustainability demand, yet the EU shifted from a net exporter to a marginal net importer as it continued to source specialised, higher-value reclaimed rubber from India and a rapidly growing Chinese supply base. The most dramatic change on the export side was the pivot from the United States — once the top destination — toward fast-growing Asian markets such as Thailand and Malaysia. At the same time, export unit prices declined by over 20% while import prices rose by 18%, creating a widening price differential that points to an increasingly segmented market: high-value imports feeding specialised applications and lower-value exports serving price-sensitive markets abroad. The overall picture is one of a maturing but increasingly stratified industry, in which the EU's circular-economy ambitions are boosting domestic volumes while not yet translating into commensurate trade-value growth.