Market evolution: Rubber thread and cord (CN 4007) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyses the European Union's trade in vulcanised rubber thread and cord (CN 4007) between 2015 and 2025. The period is marked by a fundamental shift in trade dynamics: while the physical quantities traded have contracted, trade values have grown, driven by significant price increases. Concurrently, the EU's trade geography has been substantially reconfigured, and its domestic production has collapsed, leading to a marked increase in import dependency and associated vulnerabilities.

1. The Volume-Price Paradox: Declining Quantities Amid Rising Values

The most striking feature of the EU's trade in rubber thread and cord over the decade is the inverse relationship between traded volumes and their monetary value. Both import and export quantities have declined substantially, yet their corresponding values have increased, pointing to a market increasingly driven by price rather than volume.

1.1 Import Volumes Contracted While Values Grew

EU imports of CN 4007 fell in quantity but rose in value. Import volume decreased by 16.5% over the period, from 11,762.8 tonnes in 2015 to 9,822.4 tonnes in 2025. However, the total import value rose by 13.7%, from €31.8 million to €36.2 million. This divergence is explained by a sharp 36.1% increase in the unit import price, from €2,707 per tonne to €3,684 per tonne (General Overview).

1.2 Export Trends Mirror the Import Pattern, with an Even Sharper Price Surge

EU exports followed a similar pattern but with more pronounced price dynamics. Export volumes contracted by 31.4%, from 719.8 tonnes to 493.8 tonnes. Despite this, export value increased by 19.0%, reaching €5.3 million. The unit export price surged by 73.0% over the decade, climbing from €6,229 per tonne to a high of €10,773 per tonne in 2025 (General Overview).

1.3 Worsening Trade Balance Despite Price Increases

The combined effect of these trends has been a widening of the EU's trade deficit in value terms. The net trade balance deteriorated by 12.8%, moving from a deficit of -€27.4 million to -€30.9 million. This indicates that while prices for both exports and imports rose, the price effect on the much larger import bill outweighed that on exports, reinforcing the structural deficit (General Overview).

2. Geographical Reconfiguration: New Sourcing Hubs and Shifting Export Markets

The decade witnessed a major restructuring of the EU's trade geography for rubber thread and cord. Traditional partners saw their shares decline, while new suppliers and export markets emerged, leading to a diversification of import sources and changes in export destinations.

2.1 Import Partners: Rise of New Suppliers from Asia and Neighbouring Regions

The share of traditional major suppliers, Thailand and Malaysia, decreased. Imports from Thailand fell by 27.1% to €11.6 million, and from Malaysia by 24.2% to €8.3 million. In contrast, imports from several other countries grew dramatically:

This shift significantly reduced the concentration of import sources. The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for import value fell by 48.3%, indicating a move towards a less concentrated, more diversified import base (General Overview & Market Structure).

2.2 Export Markets: Volatile Shifts and the Collapse of the Belarusian Market

EU export destinations also underwent change. While the UK and Switzerland remained the top markets with stable or growing values, exports to Belarus collapsed by 97.3%, from €329,519 to just €8,860. In contrast, exports to Egypt surged from a negligible €2,429 to €482,572. Other notable growth occurred in Tunisia (+73.1%) and Serbia (+104.4%), while exports to India declined sharply (-71.4%) (General Overview).

2.3 Intra-EU Specialisation Remains Concentrated in a Few Member States

Within the EU, production and export specialisation for CN 4007 is highly uneven. In 2025, Slovenia, Belgium, and the Netherlands exhibited the highest revealed symmetric comparative advantage (RSCA) scores, indicating strong specialisation. Conversely, countries like Bulgaria, Hungary, and Slovakia showed virtually no specialisation (RCA near 0) (Market Structure).

3. Domestic Production Collapse and Rising Import Dependency

The most concerning long-term trend is the dramatic decline in EU domestic production of rubber thread and cord, which has directly fuelled a sharp increase in the bloc's reliance on imports and exposed it to greater volatility.

3.1 A Precipitous Decline in EU Production Volumes and Value

EU production data reveals a severe contraction. Production quantity plummeted by 64.3%, from 22.4 million kilograms in 2015 to 8.0 million kilograms in 2025. Production value fell by a similar 64.1%, from €62.0 million to €22.3 million. This collapse has fundamentally altered the EU's supply dynamics for this product (Market Structure).

3.2 Import Reliance Has More Than Doubled

The decline in domestic production has directly translated into increased import dependency. The EU's net import reliance for CN 4007 surged from 27.0% in 2015 to 55.5% in 2025, a 105.6% increase. This means that over half of the EU's consumption of this product is now met by imports, a significant vulnerability.

3.3 Market Volatility and Supply Shocks Highlight Vulnerabilities

Increased dependency is compounded by volatility in key supply relationships. Import flows from partners like Turkey (CV=0.49) and India (CV=0.53) show high year-to-year variability. The analysis also detected significant price shocks in EU exports, such as a 927% price shift to India in 2021 and a 444% shift to Belarus in 2023, which can distort trade flows and indicate unstable market conditions (Volatility & Shocks).

Conclusion

The EU's market for vulcanised rubber thread and cord (CN 4007) has undergone a profound transformation between 2015 and 2025. The sector has shifted from a volume-driven trade model to one dominated by price appreciation. Geographically, trade has been reconfigured, with a diversification away from traditional Asian suppliers towards new sources in Europe and South Asia. However, the most critical development is the collapse of the EU's domestic production capacity, which has led to a more than doubling of import reliance to over 55%. This structural shift, coupled with evident volatility in supplier relationships and export prices, points to increased strategic vulnerability for the EU in this industrial segment. The future challenge lies in balancing efficiency from diversified global supply with the resilience needed to manage dependencies and price shocks.