Market evolution: Agricultural tyres (CN 401170) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of EU trade in new pneumatic tyres for agricultural and forestry vehicles (CN code 401170) from 2015 to 2025. The product scope covers rubber pneumatic tyres designed for tractors, harvesters, and other agricultural or forestry machinery, and is mapped to Prodcom code 22.11.14.00. Note that the available data for the EU's extra-EU flows begins in 2017, so the analysis that follows covers the period 2017–2025 inclusive.

Over these nine years, the EU agricultural tyre market has undergone significant structural change. The bloc's trade deficit has more than doubled, import sourcing has become far more concentrated, and a pronounced shift towards higher-value production is evident on the supply side. Three dynamics stand out: (1) a widening import dependency driven by growing volumes and rising unit prices; (2) the consolidation of India as the overwhelmingly dominant import supplier alongside the collapse of trade with Russia and Israel; and (3) a strategic repositioning of EU production towards fewer but more valuable tyres, even as the EU's external trade position weakens. These findings are explored in the three sections below.

1. The Widening Deficit: Import Growth Outpaces a Declining Export Base

1.1 The EU's trade balance deteriorated from a modest deficit to a structural gap

The EU has been a net importer of agricultural tyres throughout the observed period, and the deficit has widened considerably. In value terms, the trade balance moved from −€254 million in 2017 to −€525 million in 2025, a deterioration of 107%. At its worst (the intermediate minimum), the deficit reached nearly −€600 million.

1.2 Import values rose sharply while export values declined

The asymmetry of the balance is explained by two diverging trends. Import values grew by +41.7%, rising from €576 million to €817 million. Export values, by contrast, contracted by −9.7%, falling from €323 million to €291 million. The peak import year saw values exceed €1 billion, while the peak export year reached only €408 million.

1.3 Import volumes grew while export volumes fell steeply, and prices rose on both sides

Volume trends tell an even starker story. Import mass (in tonnes) increased by +24.4%, from roughly 190,000 tonnes to 236,000 tonnes. Export mass, however, plunged by −38.9%, from 85,000 tonnes to just 52,000 tonnes — the lowest level in the entire period. On the price side, the EU's average export price per tonne rose by +47.8% (from €3,795 to €5,608), while the average import price per tonne rose more modestly by +13.9% (from €3,035 to €3,458). This widening price gap suggests EU producers are focusing on higher-specification products (larger, more complex tyres) while lower-value imports fill volume demand.

1.4 The supplementary unit data confirms the volume shift but reveals distinct price dynamics

Using the supplementary unit measure (number of pieces), imports in piece count were essentially flat over the period (+1.6%), moving from 5.58 million to 5.67 million pieces. Yet the value of those imports rose by 42%. This implies a significant increase in the average value per imported tyre — from €103 to €144 per piece (+39.5%) — suggesting a mix shift towards larger or more premium imported tyres, or sustained inflationary pressure in the supply chain. On the export side, piece count fell by −26.1% (from 849,027 to 627,640 pieces), while the price per piece rose by +22.2% (from €380 to €464). EU exporters thus shipped fewer but more expensive tyres externally.

1.5 Net import reliance shifted from near self-sufficiency to meaningful dependency

The net import reliance indicator moved from −7.7% in 2017 (meaning the EU was a slight net exporter in relative terms at the start of its available data) to +16.0% in 2025, with a peak of +20.2% in an intermediate year. This 308% swing signals a fundamental shift in the EU's external trade position for this product. Meanwhile, trade intensity (the share of consumption met through imports) rose from 55% to 85%, and export propensity (exports as a share of production) increased from 40% to 72%. The combined picture is one of a market that has become more open and more import-dependent, even as the EU's own producers — who are fewer in number — have become more export-oriented in relative terms.

2. India's Dominance, Russia's Disappearance, and the Concentration of Import Supply

2.1 India emerged as the overwhelmingly dominant supplier of agricultural tyres to the EU

The most striking shift in the partner landscape is the consolidation of India's position. Indian imports into the EU grew by +103.3%, rising from €312 million to €634 million — accounting for approximately 82% of the EU's total extra-EU import value by 2025. India's peak year saw imports reach €678 million.

2.2 Russia and Israel experienced dramatic collapses in EU-bound trade

Two previously significant suppliers effectively exited the market. Imports from the Russian Federation fell to virtually zero (€1,788 in 2025 from €10.3 million in 2017), a decline attributable to the sanctions regime imposed following Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Imports from Israel dropped by −98.0%, from €62.4 million to just €1.3 million — a sharp and complete decline that warrants further investigation but may relate to shifts in production or trade re-routing.

2.3 Import concentration nearly doubled, creating supply-chain vulnerability

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for EU imports by value surged from 3,244 to 6,127 — an +88.9% increase. An HHI above 2,500 is generally considered highly concentrated; at over 6,000, the EU's import supply for agricultural tyres is now extremely concentrated in India's hands. By volume, the HHI similarly rose from 3,582 to 6,186 (+72.7%). This concentration poses potential vulnerability to disruptions in Indian production, trade policy changes, or logistical bottlenecks.

2.4 Price shocks in 2022 rippled through major supplier relationships

The shock analysis identifies 2022 as a year of pronounced price disruption across multiple suppliers. Indian import prices experienced a +21.5% abnormal shift with a shock intensity score of 7.8, while Turkish import prices saw a +17.4% shift (intensity 5.4). On the export side, the most severe shock was a +42.9% price spike in EU exports to Russia in 2022 (intensity 25.2), likely reflecting the scramble to fulfil or wind down contracts ahead of sanctions. These volatility patterns are consistent with the broader macroeconomic and geopolitical disruptions of that year — energy cost inflation, logistics disruption, and the immediate fallout from the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

2.5 EU export markets remained more diversified and geographically stable

In contrast to imports, EU export partner concentration remained moderate, with the HHI declining slightly from 1,649 to 1,590 (−3.6%). The United States was the largest single destination (€89 million in 2025, +4.0%), followed by the United Kingdom (€64 million, −29.9%). Notably, exports to Brazil grew by +51.6% to €15 million, while exports to Türkiye rose by +38.1% to €20 million, partially offsetting the decline in UK-bound trade. Export volatility was highest for Brazil (CV 0.404) and Australia (CV 0.408), reflecting the more cyclical nature of agricultural equipment demand in those markets.

3. Industrial Restructuring: EU Production Shifts Towards Fewer, Higher-Value Tyres

3.1 EU production volumes halved while production values rose significantly

The production data reveals a profound restructuring of EU agricultural tyre manufacturing. Production in terms of units fell by −45%, from 6.37 million pieces to 3.50 million pieces (with a low of 3.42 million). Yet production value increased by +57.6%, from €1.02 billion to €1.60 billion (peaking at €2.0 billion). This implies the average value per tyre produced in the EU roughly doubled — a strong signal of a move up the value chain towards larger, more specialised agricultural tyres where EU manufacturers retain a competitive advantage.

3.2 Specific EU member states demonstrated clear export specialisation

The specialisation analysis for 2025 highlights a clear division of labour within the EU. The most specialised exporters, measured by Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA), are:

These five countries collectively account for over 58% of EU production and exhibit strong comparative advantages in agricultural tyre exports. Finland's exceptionally high RCA (4.48) likely reflects its role as home to major tyre manufacturers (such as Nokian Tyres) with a particular focus on heavy agricultural and forestry applications. At the other end of the spectrum, Ireland (RSCA −0.96), Greece (RSCA −0.94), and Austria (RSCA −0.86) are the least specialised, reflecting negligible domestic production and heavy reliance on intra-EU and extra-EU imports.

3.3 Germany and Poland led the intra-EU import surge, while Poland's exports collapsed

Among EU member state importers, Poland recorded the most dramatic increase (+131.9%, from €24.5 million to €56.8 million), followed by the Netherlands (+76.6%) and France (+65.8%). Germany remained the largest importer at €161 million in 2025 (+31.1%). On the export side, Poland's extra-EU exports plummeted by −55.6% (from €82.1 million to €36.5 million), while Spain (+31.4%) and Czechia (+28.1%) saw healthy growth. The divergence in Poland — surging imports alongside collapsing exports — may reflect a shift from production-for-export to production-for-domestic-use, or a restructuring of supply chains within the EU.

3.4 The combined picture points to an EU market undergoing selective de-industrialisation at the volume end

The simultaneous decline in production volumes (−45%), the collapse of export mass (−38.9%), and the surge in import volumes (+24.4%) collectively indicate that the EU is ceding the lower-value, higher-volume segment of the agricultural tyre market to external producers — principally India. What remains of EU production is shifting towards larger, premium tyres where unit values are high and where European manufacturers' engineering expertise and proximity to major agricultural equipment OEMs confer a structural advantage. This is consistent with a broader pattern observed across several EU manufacturing sectors: a strategic retreat from commodity-scale production in favour of higher-margin, technology-intensive products.

Conclusion

The EU market for agricultural tyres (CN 401170) has undergone a fundamental transformation between 2017 and 2025. The trade deficit has more than doubled to €525 million, driven by rising imports (now €817 million) and declining exports (€291 million). Import supply has become dangerously concentrated, with India accounting for over 80% of extra-EU import value and the import HHI reaching 6,127 — a level indicating extreme supplier dependence. Meanwhile, geopolitical upheaval (sanctions on Russia) and commercial shifts (the collapse of Israeli exports to the EU) have further narrowed the supplier base.

On the production side, EU manufacturers have responded with a clear strategic pivot: producing 45% fewer tyres by volume but generating 58% more in value, signalling a decisive move towards the premium, large-format segment of the market. The net import reliance indicator's swing from near-zero to +16% underscores that the EU is no longer self-sufficient in this category.

Looking ahead, the key risks centre on the extreme import concentration on India. Any disruption — whether through trade policy, logistics, or Indian domestic factors — could significantly affect EU agricultural supply chains. The 2022 price shocks offer a preview of how quickly costs can escalate in a concentrated market. Policymakers and industry stakeholders may wish to consider diversification strategies, support for domestic capacity in critical tyre segments, and monitoring of the evolving competitive landscape in South and Southeast Asia.