Market evolution: Car tyres (CN 401110) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the EU's external trade in new pneumatic tyres for passenger cars (CN 401110) over the period 2015–2025. The general overview of the product reveals a decade of structural transformation: the EU moved from a trade surplus of €630 million in 2015 to a deficit of €559 million in 2025. Import values grew by 56.1% over the period, far outpacing the 22.1% rise in export values. Beneath these headline figures lie significant shifts in partner geography, product pricing, domestic production, and strategic vulnerability. The following sections unpack these dynamics.

1. The Import Surge: Volume Growth, Shifting Partners, and Rising Concentration

Import volumes expanded dramatically while export volumes contracted

The most striking feature of the 2015–2025 period is the divergence between import and export flows. Trade data shows that EU imports rose from 992,630 tonnes in 2015 to 1,468,205 tonnes in 2025 (+47.9%), while exports fell from 833,185 to 748,280 tonnes (−10.2%). In supplementary-unit terms (number of pieces), the gap is even wider: imports of tyres grew from 109.7 million to 155.9 million pieces (+42.1%), whereas exports shrank from 83.4 million to 68.3 million pieces (−18.1%). This asymmetry suggests that the EU's domestic demand for passenger-car tyres is increasingly met by non-EU suppliers.

China emerged as the dominant import source, while Russia collapsed

The partner breakdown reveals a dramatic reshaping of the EU's import geography. China's share of EU tyre imports surged from €947 million in 2015 to €2,807 million in 2025 — a 196.4% increase that makes China by far the largest single supplier. South Korea (+139%), Türkiye (+98.2%), and Serbia (+182.2%) also posted strong growth, with Serbia nearly tripling its exports to the EU. In stark contrast, imports from Russia fell from €318 million to virtually zero (−100%), reflecting the impact of EU sanctions following the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. The United Kingdom, once the EU's third-largest supplier at €710 million, saw its exports to the EU decline by 74.9% to €178 million — a likely consequence of Brexit-related trade friction.

Import concentration doubled, raising supply-chain risk

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for imports more than doubled from 1,272 to 2,568 (by value), crossing from a moderately concentrated market into one that is approaching high concentration. This is driven almost entirely by China's growing dominance. By contrast, export-side HHI remained relatively stable (1,281 → 1,182), indicating that the EU continues to ship tyres to a diversified set of destinations. The rising import concentration is a key vulnerability: any disruption to Chinese supply — whether from tariffs, logistics bottlenecks, or geopolitical tension — would have an outsized impact on EU tyre availability.

2. Pricing Power, Value Capture, and the Divergence Between Tonnage and Revenue

EU export prices rose much faster than import prices

A critical dynamic in this market is the divergence in price evolution. EU export unit values rose by 36.0% per tonne (from €5,443 to €7,400/t) and by 49.0% per piece (from €54.4 to €81.0/piece) over the period. Import prices, by contrast, increased only 5.5% per tonne (from €3,935 to €4,152/t) and 9.9% per piece. This suggests that the EU is increasingly exporting premium, higher-value tyres while importing lower-priced ones — a classic pattern of intra-industry specialisation where the EU retains the high-margin segment of the value chain.

Domestic production volumes declined but values surged

Data on EU production confirms this specialisation trend. EU production fell from 280.8 million to 254.5 million pieces (−9.4%) over the period, yet production value rose from €8.40 billion to €14.81 billion (+76.3%). In other words, the EU is making fewer tyres but capturing more revenue per unit — consistent with a shift toward larger-diameter, higher-performance, and premium-branded tyres where EU manufacturers retain a competitive edge.

Shock events highlight geopolitical pricing risks

The shock analysis identifies several abnormal price and supply movements. Most notably, a price shock was detected for EU exports to Russia in 2023 (a 129.3% price spike with an abnormality score of 12.8), likely reflecting sanctions-driven disruption and re-routing of trade flows. On the import side, a price shock from China in 2022 (33.1% increase) coincides with post-COVID logistics pressures and rising energy costs globally. These events underscore how external shocks can rapidly alter cost structures in this market.

3. Shifting Trade Balance, Growing Vulnerability, and the Role of Specialisation

The EU flipped from net exporter to net importer

The most consequential structural change is captured by the net import reliance indicator. In 2015, the EU had a trade surplus of €630 million in car tyres. By 2025, this had become a deficit of €559 million. Net import reliance roughly doubled over the period. This swing reflects the combined effect of rising import volumes (driven by cost-competitive Asian and Turkish suppliers) and stagnant or declining export volumes. The flip is significant: it means the EU is now structurally dependent on external supply to meet its tyre demand.

Trade intensity and export propensity both increased substantially

Despite the deteriorating balance, the EU tyre sector became more globally engaged. Trade intensity (total trade as a share of production value) rose from 35.5% to 55.0% (+55.0%), while export propensity (exports as a share of production) increased from 21.3% to 37.6% (+76.0%). The high salience score for export propensity (88.4 vs. 60.0 for trade intensity) indicates that EU producers are increasingly outward-looking — but this also means greater exposure to global competition and geopolitical disruption.

Production specialisation is concentrated in Central and Eastern Europe

The specialisation analysis for 2025 shows that car-tyre production is disproportionately concentrated in a handful of EU member states. Romania leads with an RSCA of 0.68, followed by Portugal (0.56) and Hungary (0.51). These countries host major tyre manufacturing plants (e.g., Continental, Michelin, Pirelli). At the other end, Malta, Ireland, and Bulgaria show negligible specialisation. This geographic concentration means that production resilience depends on a small number of national industrial bases, predominantly in Central and Eastern Europe.

Conclusion

Over 2015–2025, the EU car-tyre market underwent a fundamental rebalancing. Imports surged — driven overwhelmingly by China, South Korea, Türkiye, and Serbia — while export volumes declined and Russia was eliminated as a supplier due to sanctions. The EU's trade balance swung from a comfortable surplus into deficit, and import concentration doubled, raising strategic vulnerability. At the same time, EU producers demonstrated pricing power: export unit values rose nearly 50% per piece, production values grew 76% even as output volumes fell, and the sector became more export-oriented. The picture that emerges is one of specialisation at the premium end of the market, coupled with growing reliance on third-country suppliers for the mid- and lower-tier segments. Policymakers and industry stakeholders should monitor both the concentration risk posed by China's dominant import share and the resilience of the specialised production clusters in Romania, Portugal, and Hungary that anchor the EU's export capacity.