Market evolution: Bus and lorry tyres (CN 401120) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyses the EU's external trade in new pneumatic tyres for buses and lorries (Customs Code 401120) over the period 2015–2025. The product covers two sub-categories: tyres with a load index of ≤ 121 (40112010) and those above 121 (40112090). The decade saw profound structural shifts in the EU's trade position: the bloc moved from near self-sufficiency to a significant net-importer status, with its import bill rising by 49.5% while export volumes contracted by nearly a third. Behind these headline figures lie a dramatic re-orientation of supplier origins, a substantial contraction of domestic production, and a pronounced upgrade toward higher-value exports — all reshaping the competitive landscape for commercial vehicle tyres in Europe.

1. A Dramatic Sourcing Shift: The Rise of New Asian Suppliers

The most striking transformation in EU bus and lorry tyre trade between 2015 and 2025 is the radical re-orientation of import origins. Traditional suppliers lost ground while a handful of Asian economies surged from near-zero market shares to dominant positions.

Asia displaced the UK as the dominant import source

In 2015, the United Kingdom was the EU's single largest import partner at €375.8 million, followed by China (€575.5 million) and Türkiye (€215.1 million). By 2025, the UK had collapsed to €49.5 million (–86.8%), while three new Asian powerhouses — Thailand (€395.3 million, +594.2%), Việt Nam (€313.9 million, up from essentially zero), and a reshaped China–Türkiye axis — accounted for the bulk of imports.

Source: Top partners by value

Brexit re-classified the UK from intra-EU to extra-EU, then trade collapsed

The UK's precipitous decline as an import source — from €375.8 million in 2015 to €49.5 million in 2025 — reflects a structural break. Until January 2021, intra-EU flows with the UK were recorded as internal trade and are absent from this dataset's baseline. After Brexit, the UK appeared as a third-country partner, but actual trade volumes fell sharply, suggesting that supply chains reorganised around continental and Asian sources rather than routing through the UK.

Import concentration diversified significantly

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for imports by value fell from 2,071 to 1,346 (–35.0%), indicating that the EU's supplier base became substantially more diversified. This reduced concentration lowers supply-risk exposure to any single country, though it also means the EU is now more deeply integrated into global tyre supply chains.

China remained the largest single supplier but lost share

Despite remaining the EU's top import source by value in 2025 (€476.0 million), China's share declined from its 2022 peak of €673.5 million. A notable price shock occurred around 2022, when import prices from China surged by 41.2% — likely linked to EU anti-dumping or anti-subsidy measures, raw-material cost inflation, or supply-chain disruptions. Türkiye overtook China as the single largest supplier by value in 2025.

Import volatility varied sharply by partner

The coefficient of variation of import flows reveals that the newer, faster-growing suppliers were also the most volatile. Việt Nam (CV = 1.00) and the UK (CV = 1.05) exhibited the highest instability, while Japan (CV = 0.20) and South Korea (CV = 0.31) were the most stable partners — consistent with their long-established manufacturing bases and mature trade relationships.

2. Declining Domestic Production and the Shift to Net-Import Dependence

While the import side was being reshaped, EU domestic production of bus and lorry tyres contracted sharply, pushing the bloc from a slight net-exporter position into significant import reliance.

EU production volumes fell by nearly two-thirds

According to the production data, the EU produced 52.2 million tyres in 2015 but only 18.0 million in 2025 — a 65.5% decline in unit terms. Production value fell less steeply (–10.2%), from €4.23 billion to €3.80 billion, indicating that the remaining production shifted toward higher-value segments.

The EU flipped from net exporter to net importer

The net import reliance moved from –6.7% in 2015 (a slight net-export surplus) to +12.7% in 2025. This swing of nearly 29 percentage points reflects the combined effect of growing import volumes and declining export volumes.

Source: Autonomy & Vulnerability

The doubling of trade intensity — the ratio of total trade to production — signals that the EU's domestic market became far more dependent on international exchange, both for supply and for finding outlets for the output of its specialised manufacturers.

Specialisation remained concentrated in a handful of Member States

Within the EU, tyre production is heavily concentrated. In 2025, the most specialised producers were:

These five countries together account for over half of EU production by value. Meanwhile, Germany — despite being the EU's largest importer (€531 million in 2025, +110.6% over the period) — has a negative specialisation index, reflecting its role as a major consumption and logistics hub rather than a dominant producer.

Import growth outpaced volume growth, indicating heavier or more premium tyres

EU imports grew by 41.7% in tonnage but by 63.3% in unit count (supplementary quantity), rising from 14.2 million to 23.2 million items. Because unit count grew faster than mass, the average weight per imported tyre declined — suggesting a growing share of lighter-weight (or smaller-diameter) tyres, potentially including the ≤ 121 load index segment that expanded at an even faster clip.

3. Price Dynamics: Diverging Trajectories for Exports and Imports

The price dimension reveals the most nuanced story: EU exporters commanded sharply higher prices over the decade while import prices remained comparatively stable, pointing to a structural "premiumisation" of the EU's export profile.

Export prices surged while import prices barely moved

Source: General Overview — trade

The 47% rise in export prices per tonne — against a mere 5.5% increase on the import side — widened the export–import price gap from €372/tonne to €1,853/tonne. This divergence is the clearest evidence of product differentiation: EU manufacturers increasingly focused on premium, high-specification tyres while imports supplied the volume-driven, lower-price segment.

High load-index tyres dominated both trade flows

The sub-product breakdown reveals that tyres with a load index > 121 (40112090) — the heavier-duty segment — accounted for the lion's share of trade in both directions:

Imports (2025):

Exports (2025):

Heavy-duty tyres (> 121) represent 73% of import value and 71% of export value, but the structural shifts differ. On the import side, the ≤ 121 segment saw explosive unit-volume growth (from 7.4 million to 14.4 million items, +95.4%) while unit prices declined slightly — consistent with commoditisation and competitive pressure from Asian suppliers. On the export side, the heavy-duty segment's volumes dropped by 39.6% (tonnes) even as prices nearly tripled per unit, reinforcing the premiumisation narrative.

A supply shock from China and a geopolitical shock from Russia

Two notable shocks marked the period:

1. China price shock (2022): Import prices from China spiked by 41.2%, rated as highly abnormal (abnormality score: 4.3). At the time, China represented 28.8% of total import value. The likely causes include EU trade-defence measures, surging raw-material costs (especially natural rubber and carbon black), and post-COVID logistics disruptions.

2. Russia supply collapse (2025): EU exports to the Russian Federation fell to essentially zero (€2,252) from a peak of €198.2 million, representing a –99.9% shift. This supply shock — carrying an abnormality score of 2.7 — is a direct consequence of EU sanctions following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Russia had been the EU's fourth-largest export destination by value in 2015.

The trade deficit widened to nearly €1 billion

The EU's trade balance in bus and lorry tyres deteriorated from –€121 million in 2015 to –€946 million in 2025 (–683.5%). The deficit peaked at its worst level in the final year of the dataset, driven by the combination of surging imports (in both volume and value) and stagnating export earnings.

Conclusion

The EU's bus and lorry tyre market underwent a fundamental restructuring between 2015 and 2025. The bloc transitioned from near trade balance to a €946 million deficit, as domestic production volumes shrank by 65% and import flows grew by over 60% in unit terms. The supply side was completely redrawn: the UK's exit from intra-EU trade flows, the emergence of Thailand and Việt Nam as major suppliers, and the continued — though declining — role of China reshaped the EU's import base into a more diversified but also more Asia-dependent structure. On the demand side, EU exporters responded by moving upmarket, nearly doubling their per-tonne export prices while shedding volume, particularly in the heavy-duty segment where unit counts fell by over 40%. Two external shocks — a Chinese price spike in 2022 and the near-total loss of the Russian export market by 2025 — underscored the sector's vulnerability to geopolitical and trade-policy risks. Looking ahead, the EU's growing import reliance and the concentration of remaining domestic production in a small number of Member States suggest that policy attention to supply-chain resilience and the competitiveness of European tyre manufacturing will remain critical.