Market evolution: Truck and bus tyres (CN 40112010) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyses the evolution of EU external trade in new pneumatic rubber tyres for buses and lorries (customs code 40112010) over the period 2015 to 2025. The data reveals a fundamental transformation of the EU's position in this market, characterised by a sharp decline in domestic production and a corresponding surge in import dependency. The EU has shifted from near self-sufficiency to becoming a significant net importer, with profound changes in both the volume and structure of its trade flows. This analysis identifies the main drivers of this shift, the geographical realignment of trade partnerships, and the resulting price and vulnerability dynamics.

1. The Substitution of Domestic Production by Imports

The most significant trend over the decade is the dramatic contraction of EU production and its replacement by imports, fundamentally altering the EU's trade balance.

Domestic production volumes have collapsed

EU production of truck and bus tyres has declined precipitously. According to production volumes, the number of items produced fell from 34.7 million units in 2015 to just 8 million in 2025, a drop of 76.9%. Production value also declined by 32.3%, indicating that while volume decreased sharply, the value fell less due to price inflation and a potential shift towards higher-value products in the remaining production.

Import volumes have surged to fill the supply gap

As domestic output dwindled, imports from non-EU countries grew dramatically. Import volumes in tonnes increased by 70.7%, from 116,900 tonnes in 2015 to 199,495 tonnes in 2025. In terms of individual items (supplementary quantity), the surge was even more pronounced at 95.4%, rising from 7.36 million to 14.38 million pieces. This indicates not only a greater mass of imports but also a shift towards lighter average tyre weight per piece.

The trade balance flipped from a small deficit to a large deficit

The combined effect of stable exports and surging imports is a dramatic deterioration in the trade balance. The EU’s trade balance in value swung from a deficit of €-87.7 million in 2015 to a deficit of €-306.7 million in 2025, a deterioration of nearly 250%. Net import reliance, a measure of vulnerability, increased from -1.5% to 15.1%, confirming a structural shift towards dependency.

2. Geographical Realignment of Trade Partners

The surge in imports was not sourced uniformly. The EU's import basket has become more concentrated, with a significant rise in shipments from Türkiye and Asia, while traditional partners like the UK have declined in importance.

Türkiye and China became the dominant import sources

The two largest suppliers, China and Türkiye, vastly increased their market share. Import value from China grew by 91.7% to €231.7 million, while imports from Türkiye saw explosive growth of 151.5%, reaching €173.7 million. Other Asian suppliers like Thailand (+336.6%) also gained ground. This reflects a broader shift of tyre manufacturing capacity to these regions.

The UK’s role in EU trade diminished sharply post-Brexit

The United Kingdom, a historically integrated trade partner, saw its importance decline. Its share of EU imports fell by 65.8% in value. Crucially, the data also shows the complete collapse of exports from the EU to Russia (from €13.4 million to €0.002 million, a -100% change) by 2025, a direct consequence of geopolitical sanctions.

EU export markets also evolved

EU exports remained relatively stable in volume but grew in value due to price increases. The United States became the largest single export market, with value surging by 187.7% to €109.2 million. This suggests EU producers are focusing on higher-value segments in mature markets. Conversely, exports to Mexico collapsed by 60.1%.

3. Diverging Price Trends and Market Shocks

The period was characterised by significant price volatility and a growing price differential between EU exports and imports, reflecting a change in the competitive landscape.

EU export prices have risen significantly faster than import prices

There is a clear price divergence. The average price per tonne for EU exports increased by 35.0% (to €5,758), while the import price per tonne rose by only 3.9% (to €3,708). This widens the price gap, indicating that EU-manufactured tyres are positioned in a different, likely more premium, segment of the market compared to imported goods. The export propensity (the ratio of exports to production) also rose sharply, from 11.9% to 47.0%, supporting this interpretation that remaining EU production is heavily export-oriented.

Supply and price shocks disrupted specific trade routes

The data identifies significant shocks. A major price shock hit EU imports from China in 2022, with an abnormality score of 4.4 and a 37.6% price shift. Concurrently, EU exports to the United States experienced a price shock in the same year (22.6% shift). These shocks, occurring simultaneously, point to the period of extreme global supply chain and inflationary pressure in 2022.

Trade concentration and volatility increased

Both import and export sides became slightly more concentrated, as shown by the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI). Furthermore, the EU's trade intensity (trade as a share of production) surged from 20.2% to 67.8%, indicating the market has become far more dependent on international exchange.

Conclusion

The EU market for truck and bus tyres (CN 40112010) has undergone a structural transformation between 2015 and 2025. The cornerstone of this change has been the steep decline in domestic production, which was replaced by a surge in imports, particularly from Türkiye and China. This has flipped the EU from a marginally self-sufficient market to one with significant net import reliance (15.1%). The trade landscape has also been reshaped by geopolitical events, notably the diminished role of the UK post-Brexit and the cessation of exports to Russia. While EU exports have held up in volume and surged in value, pointing to a re-focusing on premium segments, the overall effect is a market far more integrated into, and dependent upon, global supply chains. The growing price differential between high-value EU exports and lower-value imports solidifies this dual structure. The increased trade intensity and concentration highlight both the economic efficiency gains from specialization and the heightened vulnerability to external shocks, as evidenced by the price and supply disruptions recorded in 2022.