Market evolution: Truck and bus tyres (CN 40112090) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of EU external trade in new pneumatic rubber tyres for buses and lorries with a load index exceeding 121 (CN 40112090) over the period 2015–2025. The decade reveals a dramatic structural transformation: the EU shifted from a near-balanced trade position to significant import dependence, while domestic production volumes contracted sharply. At the same time, the geographic composition of both imports and exports was reshaped by trade policy, geopolitical sanctions, and the emergence of new Asian manufacturing hubs. The analysis draws on trade values, quantities, prices, partner concentration indices, and vulnerability metrics to provide a comprehensive picture of market dynamics.

1. The EU's structural pivot from self-sufficiency to net import reliance

The trade balance swung decisively into deficit

At the start of the period in 2015, the EU's trade balance in truck and bus tyres was nearly flat at –€33 million. By 2025, it had deteriorated to –€639 million — a swing of over €600 million. This shift reflects a fundamental change in the EU's competitive position in this product category.

The EU went from being a marginal net exporter (negative import reliance = net exporter) to a net importer, with import reliance reaching 11.7% by 2025.

Domestic production collapsed in volume even as values held steady

EU production volumes fell from 17.5 million units in 2015 to approximately 10 million units in 2025, a decline of 42.8%. Over the same period, production value was essentially flat (–1.8%, from €2.75 bn to €2.80 bn). This divergence indicates that EU manufacturers responded to lower-cost import competition by moving upmarket — producing fewer, higher-value tyres rather than competing on volume. The implied average unit value of EU production rose from roughly €157 to €280 per tyre over the decade.

Export volumes fell even more steeply than production

EU export quantities declined by 39.5% (from 353,000 tonnes to 213,000 tonnes), while export volumes in units fell by 42.4% (from 6.4 million to 3.7 million pieces). Crucially, the average export price per tonne surged by 48.2% (from €3,336/t to €4,943/t), and the price per unit rose by 55.5% (from €183 to €285). In contrast, import prices grew only modestly (+5% per tonne). This widening price premium on EU exports points to a product-quality niche that EU producers increasingly occupy, while the bulk of volume growth has shifted to imports.

The EU became more trade-intensive and more export-oriented

Despite the trade deficit widening, the EU tyre sector became more deeply integrated into global trade. Trade intensity (exports + imports as a share of production value) nearly doubled, rising from 32.9% to 63.0%. Export propensity (exports as a share of production value) also rose from 23.3% to 42.4%. These trends suggest that while the EU's competitive position weakened in volume terms, its remaining production became more outward-facing — a pattern consistent with specialisation in premium segments.

2. Geographic diversification: the reshaping of import and export partner landscapes

Import sourcing shifted dramatically from China to emerging Asian producers

The most striking geographic dynamic on the import side is the decline of China and the rise of new Asian suppliers. Chinese imports fell from €455 million in 2015 to €244 million in 2025 (–46.3%). Meanwhile:

*Vietnam started from a near-zero base (€12k in 2015).

By 2025, Türkiye had overtaken China as the EU's largest single supplier of truck and bus tyres by value, while Thailand and Vietnam had each reached roughly €300 million — levels that were negligible at the start of the period. This pattern likely reflects a combination of EU anti-dumping or safeguard measures on Chinese tyres, tariff-rate quotas, and the broader "China+1" diversification strategy by global tyre manufacturers (several of whom operate production facilities in Thailand and Vietnam).

Brexit caused a collapse in UK–EU tyre trade flows

The United Kingdom's departure from the EU single market is clearly visible in the data:

• EU imports from the UK fell from €298 million in 2015 to €23 million in 2025 (–92.3%).
• EU exports to the UK held up much better, rising from €206 million to €252 million (+22.2%).

The asymmetry is notable: the UK remained a key destination for EU tyres, but its role as a supplier to the EU nearly vanished. This likely reflects the fact that UK tyre production (notably by major manufacturers) redirected some output to non-EU markets or that customs frictions disproportionately affected imports entering the EU from the UK.

Import sourcing became far more diversified

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for import concentration fell from 2,286 in 2015 to 1,361 in 2025 (–40.5%). An HHI above 2,500 typically signals high concentration; the 2015 value was already moderately concentrated. By 2025, the import base had broadened considerably, reducing single-supplier risk. The rise of Thailand, Vietnam, and Türkiye — alongside a resilient Korea — diluted China's former dominance.

Export destinations showed greater concentration over time

In contrast to import diversification, export concentration increased, with the HHI rising from 834 to 1,250 (+49.8%). This was partly driven by the collapse of exports to Russia (see Section 3) and the growing weight of the United Kingdom, the United States, and Türkiye as the primary export markets.

Internal EU trade patterns also shifted significantly

Within the EU, notable shifts occurred among importing and exporting member states:

Germany and France saw major declines in their extra-EU export positions, while Spain and Czechia gained ground. On the import side, Poland emerged as the dominant EU entry point, overtaking Belgium and France — a pattern consistent with Poland's growing role as a logistics hub and its proximity to eastern supply chains.

3. Geopolitical shocks, supply disruptions, and evolving risk exposure

Sanctions triggered a near-total collapse of EU tyre exports to Russia

The most dramatic shock in the dataset is the near-disappearance of EU exports to Russia. Exports fell from €85 million in 2015 and a peak of €187 million to just €561,000 in 2025 — a decline of 99.3%. The shock was classified as a supply-side abnormality of 2.6σ, centred on 2024. This is a direct consequence of EU sanctions imposed following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Russia had accounted for over 11% of EU tyre exports by value at its peak, so this loss represented a significant market dislocation for EU manufacturers.

Import volatility was concentrated in the newest supplier relationships

The coefficient of variation (CV) of import values was highest for the most recently established supplier relationships:

The UK's high volatility reflects the Brexit shock. Vietnam and Thailand, despite their dramatic growth, exhibited relatively high variability — a natural consequence of rapid scaling from near-zero baselines. Among established suppliers, Japan and Korea showed the lowest volatility, suggesting stable, mature trade relationships.

Export markets showed generally lower volatility, with one critical exception

Export-side volatility was broadly lower than on the import side. The UK (CV = 0.10), Morocco (0.09), and Switzerland (0.08) were exceptionally stable markets for EU tyres. Russia (CV = 0.55) was the notable outlier, with its volatility driven entirely by the sanctions shock. Türkiye (CV = 0.12) and the US (CV = 0.21) also provided reliable export demand throughout the period.

The EU's evolving specialisation pattern reveals a two-speed industry

Analysis of revealed symmetric comparative advantage (RSCA) for 2025 shows that EU tyre production is heavily concentrated in a handful of member states:

• Strong specialisation: Luxembourg (RSCA 0.95), Slovakia (0.73), Romania (0.55), Spain (0.48)
• Weak specialisation / net importers: Austria (–0.89), Greece (–0.89), Ireland (–0.89), Bulgaria (–0.81)

Slovakia stands out with a 13.6% production share in EU output despite its small economy — consistent with the presence of major tyre manufacturing plants (e.g., Continental) in the country. Spain's strong position aligns with its role as both a major producer and the largest EU exporter by 2025.

Conclusion

The EU truck and bus tyre market (CN 40112090) underwent a profound structural transformation between 2015 and 2025. The decade began with the EU as a near-balanced trader and ended with a €639 million trade deficit, driven by a 42.8% contraction in production volumes and a 40% rise in import values. EU manufacturers responded by moving upmarket: export prices per unit rose by 55.5%, even as volumes declined.

The geographic landscape was reshaped by three major forces. First, Türkiye, Thailand, and Vietnam emerged as dominant suppliers, overtaking or rivalling China — likely reflecting trade defence measures and global production reallocation. Second, Brexit severed the UK's role as a supplier to the EU (–92.3%), while the UK remained a key export market. Third, EU sanctions on Russia eliminated a market that once absorbed over 11% of EU tyre exports.

Importantly, the EU's import base became significantly more diversified (HHI fell 40%), reducing single-supplier concentration risk. However, export concentration increased, making EU producers more reliant on a smaller set of destination markets. The sector's rising trade intensity (from 33% to 63%) underscores the growing integration of the EU tyre industry into global value chains — a trend that brings both opportunities and exposure to external shocks.