Market evolution: Wool waste (CN 5103) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of EU trade in wool waste and related products under Combined Nomenclature code 5103 over the 2015–2025 period. The product covers waste of wool or fine and coarse animal hair, including yarn waste, but excludes garnetted stock and certain horsehair and bristle waste. The scope of CN 5103 encompasses three subcategories: noils of wool (510310), other fine wool waste and yarn waste (510320), and waste of coarse animal hair (510330).

The EU has historically been a net importer of wool waste, supplying its textile and recycling industries with raw material from major wool-producing nations. Over the decade examined, the market has undergone a profound contraction in trade volumes and values, accompanied by significant structural shifts in sourcing and production patterns. Total imports fell by 63% in value and 62% in volume, while exports declined by 51% and 59% respectively. EU domestic production collapsed even more dramatically, declining by an estimated 97% in quantity and 91% in value between the first and last years of the series.

I. A Market in Structural Decline

EU imports and exports both contracted sharply over the decade

The most striking feature of the CN 5103 market is the breadth and depth of the decline. Between 2015 and 2025, EU imports of wool waste fell from €30.7 million to €11.3 million (−63%), with volumes dropping from 7,412 tonnes to 2,850 tonnes (−62%). EU exports declined from €6.4 million to €3.1 million (−51%) in value and from 4,600 tonnes to 1,879 tonnes (−59%) in volume. The trade deficit, while remaining negative throughout, narrowed from €24.3 million to €8.2 million — an improvement of 66% — reflecting that imports fell even faster than exports.

Unit prices diverged between import and export flows

Despite the volume collapse, import prices remained relatively stable, falling only 3.8% from €4,139/t to €3,981/t. By contrast, export prices rose 19.9% from €1,388/t to €1,663/t. The persistently higher import price compared to the export price (a ratio of roughly 2.4:1 in 2025) reflects the fact that EU imports are weighted toward higher-value noils of fine wool (510310), which command around €4,258/t, while exports are dominated by lower-grade wool waste (510320) priced at approximately €934/t. This price differential underscores the EU's role as a processor: it imports higher-quality sorted waste, processes or re-grades it, and exports lower-value residual material.

EU domestic production collapsed, widening import dependency

The EU production of CN 5103 experienced a catastrophic decline, falling from 32,563 tonnes in 2015 to just 1,000 tonnes in 2025 — a drop of 96.9%. Production value fell from €35.5 million to €3.2 million (−91%). This domestic supply shock, far exceeding the decline in trade volumes, has reshaped the EU's position in the global market. The net import reliance ratio rose from 33.5% in 2015 to 67.4% in 2025, peaking at 98.6% at one point — indicating that the EU is now far more dependent on external supply than it was a decade ago, despite lower absolute import volumes.

II. Shifting Partners and Rising Concentration

The UK's exit reshaped EU wool waste trade flows

Among the most consequential structural changes was the United Kingdom's departure from the EU customs union. The UK was the EU's second-largest import partner in 2015 (€5.7 million) and the top export destination (€1.7 million). By 2025, UK imports had fallen to €1.1 million (−80.1%), and exports to the UK collapsed to €198,000 (−88.7%). A significant price shock in UK imports was detected in 2023, with a 96.9% price spike and an abnormality score of 3.6. The reclassification of UK–EU trade from intra-EU to extra-EU flows, combined with new customs frictions, likely contributed to the redirection and reduction of these exchanges.

China consolidated its position as the dominant supplier

China remained the EU's largest import partner throughout the period, with imports declining from €6.6 million to €5.3 million (−18.6%) — a far smaller drop than the overall market contraction. China's share of total EU imports therefore rose substantially, from roughly 21% to 47%. This consolidation is reflected in the import concentration index (HHI), which nearly doubled from 1,420 to 2,795 — moving the market from a moderately concentrated structure to one bordering on high concentration. Notably, China was also the only major export partner to see EU export values increase (+41.5%), reaching €1.7 million by 2025 and becoming the top EU export destination.

Traditional wool suppliers saw dramatic share losses

The decline in imports was especially severe among traditional wool-producing nations. Australia's imports fell 85.7% to just €84,000; Argentina dropped 77.6% to €332,000; Uruguay fell 75.5% to €286,000. India and Egypt, previously major suppliers at €5.2 million and €4.8 million respectively, saw their trade halve or worse. These declines reflect both the overall market contraction and the shifting geographic pattern of global wool processing, with more sorting and grading now occurring in China before export.

Market concentration increased on both sides of trade

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for exports rose even more dramatically, from 1,462 to 3,432 (+134.8%). This indicates that the EU's export base became highly concentrated, with fewer destinations accounting for a larger share. Combined with the concentration of imports around China, the EU's wool waste trade is now structurally more exposed to bilateral disruptions than it was in 2015.

III. The Shifting Geography of EU Member-State Trade

Italy dominates but has seen massive volume declines

Italy was by far the largest EU importer of wool waste, consistent with its strong textile and fashion industries. Italian imports fell from €27.3 million to €9.5 million (−65.3%), but Italy still accounted for roughly 83% of total EU imports in 2025. Italy was also the leading EU exporter, at €1.6 million in 2025 (−57.6%). The specialisation data confirms Italy's strong revealed comparative advantage (RCA of 3.01) in this product.

Bulgaria and Czechia emerged as specialised EU exporters

While Italy's absolute volumes declined, Bulgaria saw an extraordinary increase in exports, from just €5,677 in 2015 to €349,251 in 2025 (+6,051%). Bulgaria now has the highest specialisation index (RSCA of 0.88, RCA of 16.26) among EU member states for this product, suggesting the emergence of a niche export cluster, possibly linked to reprocessing or sorting activities. Czechia, the second-largest EU exporter at €912,000, also shows strong specialisation (RCA 5.35) and maintained relatively stable volumes despite the overall decline.

Some member states increased imports despite the market downturn

Against the overall trend, France saw imports surge from €49,000 to €332,000 (+577%), and Spain grew from €48,000 to €150,000 (+210%). These increases, while modest in absolute terms, suggest emerging demand from secondary processing or circular textile initiatives in these countries. By contrast, Spain's exports collapsed by 96.8%, and several other traditional exporters — Germany (−88.8%), Portugal (−97.7%), and Türkiye as a destination (−99.6%) — virtually exited the trade.

Conclusion

The EU wool waste market under CN 5103 has undergone a decade of contraction, structural realignment, and rising vulnerability. Total trade volumes more than halved, domestic production collapsed by 97%, and the EU's net import reliance doubled to 67%. The market has become more concentrated around fewer partners — principally China on the import side — while the UK's departure from the EU customs union removed a historically significant trade partner. Within the EU, Italy remains the overwhelming hub, but new specialised clusters have emerged in Bulgaria and Czechia. The persistence of stable import prices amid collapsing volumes suggests that remaining trade is oriented toward higher-value noils rather than bulk waste. Looking forward, the EU's growing dependency on a narrow set of external suppliers, combined with its shrinking domestic production base, presents notable supply-chain concentration risks for the continent's textile recycling and wool-processing sectors.