Market evolution: Garnetted wool (CN 5104) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyses the trade dynamics of the European Union (EU) for garnetted stock of wool or animal hair (Customs code 5104) over the period 2015 to 2025. The data reveals a market undergoing significant structural transformation, characterized by declining trade volumes, a substantial increase in unit prices, and a notable reorientation of trade partnerships. These trends reflect broader shifts in global textile supply chains and changing competitive advantages within the sector. The General Overview provides the foundational metrics for this analysis.

A Decade of Declining Volumes and Rising Prices

The most striking feature of the EU's trade in garnetted wool is the pronounced contraction in physical volumes coupled with a strong increase in unit values. Between 2015 and 2025, the EU's total exports fell by 54.6% in quantity, while import quantities fell by 48.5%. Conversely, the average price per tonne for both exports and imports nearly doubled, rising by 79.4% and 61.7% respectively. This inverse relationship suggests a market shift towards higher-quality or more specialized products, or reflects broader inflationary pressures within the niche wool processing sector. As a result, the overall trade value did not fall as steeply as volumes, with export value declining by 18.4% and import value by 15.3%.

The EU's trade balance for this product remained consistently positive throughout the period, indicating a structural competitive advantage in processing garnetted stock. However, this surplus narrowed from €819,020 thousand in 2015 to €662,032 thousand in 2025, a decrease of 19.2%, mirroring the general contraction of the market.

Source: General Overview

Geographic Reorientation of Trade Partners

The period witnessed a dramatic reshuffling of the EU's key trade partners, with traditional suppliers and destinations losing prominence to new or previously minor actors. This reorientation points to evolving supply chains, geopolitical factors, and changing competitive landscapes.

On the import side, the EU's sourcing has shifted away from Oceania and towards Asia and neighbouring countries. Imports from New Zealand collapsed from €300,548 thousand in 2015 to a negligible €6 thousand in 2025. In contrast, India's share grew dramatically, with its import value rising by 131.9% to become the EU's top supplier by 2025. The United Kingdom also emerged as a significant supplier post-2015, likely reflecting its position as a third country after Brexit. The top partners by value section details these shifts.

The export landscape shows an even more pronounced pivot. Ukraine consolidated its position as the primary destination for EU exports, absorbing 463,667 thousand EUR in 2025, though down from its 2015 level. The most notable change was the collapse of exports to the United Kingdom, which fell by 92.5% from €126,402 thousand to €9,474 thousand. This decline was offset by substantial growth in exports to other markets, notably the United States (+193.7%) and several North African and Middle Eastern countries like Morocco and Egypt.

Increasing Import Concentration and EU Specialisation

The market structure analysis reveals a concerning trend: the concentration of EU imports has increased significantly, suggesting growing dependency on a smaller number of suppliers. The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for import value more than doubled from 2,205 in 2015 to 5,854 in 2025. This indicates a market moving from a state of moderate concentration to one of high concentration, which can imply increased vulnerability to supply disruptions or price volatility from key partners like India. The concentration analysis provides further detail.

Within the EU, specialisation in garnetted wool production is highly uneven. Italy is by far the most specialised and dominant member state, accounting for 77.5% of EU production in 2025 and showing a high Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA) index of 0.81. Romania also shows a strong specialisation. In contrast, major economies like Germany, the Netherlands, and Belgium show negligible production shares and very low RSCA, confirming that this is a niche sector concentrated in specific regional clusters. The EU's export concentration (HHI) decreased slightly, suggesting a modest diversification of export destinations despite the overall market decline. The specialisation data underlines this internal disparity.

Conclusion

The EU market for garnetted wool (CN 5104) between 2015 and 2025 contracted in volume but saw a significant price increase, leading to a more modest decline in total trade value. The period was defined by a major reorientation of trade flows: imports pivoted away from New Zealand towards India, while exports shifted focus from the UK to Ukraine, the US, and North Africa. This reorganization has led to increased concentration on the import side, heightening dependency on a limited set of suppliers. Domestically, the industry remains highly specialised, anchored in Italy and a few other member states. These trends reflect a niche sector adapting to post-Brexit realities, evolving global supply chains, and a potential move towards higher-value processing in the face of declining raw volumes.