Market evolution: Carded wool fabrics (CN 5111) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of EU external trade in woven fabrics of carded wool or carded fine animal hair (Combined Nomenclature code 5111) over the period 2015–2025. The product heading encompasses a range of subcategories, from pure wool fabrics (≥85% by weight) to blends with synthetic fibres, and includes both lightweight (≤300 g/m²) and heavier variants. The EU has historically been a major producer and exporter of high-quality wool fabrics, with Italy serving as the dominant manufacturing hub.

Over the decade examined, the market has undergone significant structural transformation. The data reveals a pattern of declining volumes in both exports and imports, accompanied by substantial unit price increases — a dynamic consistent with a "trading up" effect. Geographic trade flows have also shifted markedly, with some traditional partnerships weakening while new corridors have strengthened. These developments occurred against a backdrop of the COVID-19 pandemic, Brexit, and broader supply-chain disruptions.

The analysis draws on trade overview data, partner-level breakdowns, market structure indicators, and product segment data.

1. Declining Volumes, Rising Values: The EU's Upward Shift Toward Premium Wool Fabrics

1.1. Export volumes contracted sharply while prices surged

The most striking trend in EU trade for CN 5111 is the divergence between volume and value trajectories. Between 2015 and 2025, EU exports fell from 10,320 tonnes to 7,868 tonnes (−23.8%) and from 28.6 million m² to 21.2 million m² (−25.9%). Despite this, export value declined only modestly from €276.0 million to €249.9 million (−9.5%). The explanation lies in a sustained rise in unit prices: the average export price per tonne climbed from €26,742 to €31,757 (+18.7%), while the price per square metre rose from €9.65 to €11.79 (+22.1%).

This pattern is consistent with a structural shift toward higher-value-added products. EU manufacturers appear to have progressively moved away from commodity-grade fabrics, concentrating on premium and technical-grade wool textiles where they command higher margins.

1.2. Imports followed the same pattern on an even smaller scale

EU imports of CN 5111 products declined even more dramatically in volume terms — from 2,102 tonnes to 1,500 tonnes (−28.7%) and from 5.2 million m² to 4.0 million m² (−24.0%). Import value, however, barely changed: from €56.6 million to €57.5 million (+1.5%). The average import price per tonne surged from €26,931 to €38,318 (+42.3%), indicating that the EU is importing fewer but more expensive wool fabrics.

The fact that import prices rose even faster than export prices (+42.3% vs. +18.7% per tonne) suggests that the EU's import basket has become even more niche or premium-oriented than its export basket, possibly reflecting the sourcing of specialty fabrics (e.g., from the United Kingdom or Switzerland) that serve luxury fashion segments.

1.3. The EU remains a strong net exporter, but the surplus narrowed

Throughout the entire period, the EU maintained a robust positive trade balance in CN 5111. The surplus stood at €219.4 million in 2015 and closed at €192.4 million in 2025 (−12.3%). The net import reliance remained deeply negative (around −56% to −61%), confirming that the EU is a structural net exporter of carded wool fabrics. There is no import dependency concern for this product category. The modest narrowing of the surplus is attributable to faster volume erosion on the export side rather than any surge in imports.

2. A Geographic Reorientation: Shifting Partners and Emerging Trade Corridors

2.1. Morocco became the EU's top export destination

The most dramatic geographic shift in EU exports occurred with Morocco. Moroccan imports of EU wool fabrics surged from €28.6 million in 2015 to €64.3 million in 2025 (+125.1%), making it the leading non-EU destination. This growth likely reflects Morocco's role as an increasingly important nearshore garment manufacturing hub for European fashion brands, particularly following the post-2020 reshoring trend. EU wool fabrics are exported to Morocco for cutting, sewing, and re-export as finished garments.

2.2. Brexit significantly disrupted UK trade flows

The United Kingdom experienced the sharpest decline among major export partners. EU exports to the UK fell from €26.6 million to €10.8 million (−59.4%), with a pronounced shock detected in 2021 — the first full year after Brexit — when export prices fell by 28.5% (shock analysis). This likely reflects both customs friction and a reorientation of UK sourcing. Notably, UK imports into the EU remained relatively stable (from €31.4 million to €32.5 million, +3.7%), suggesting the UK maintained its role as a supplier to the EU even as its role as an EU customer diminished.

2.3. Türkiye and Ukraine saw contrasting trajectories

Exports to Türkiye remained relatively stable (+4.5%), while exports to Ukraine declined by 49.4% — a drop that accelerated after 2022, consistent with the geopolitical disruption caused by the Russian invasion. On the import side, the picture was far more dramatic: imports from Türkiye collapsed from €4.1 million to €0.9 million (−77.7%), and imports from Ukraine fell from €0.5 million to €0.08 million (−82.6%). These declines suggest that both countries have lost competitiveness as suppliers of wool fabrics to the EU, or that their own industries have shifted focus.

2.4. China's role evolved — fewer imports at higher prices

China presents an interesting case. EU imports from China rose in value from €3.9 million to €5.8 million (+49.3%), despite likely lower volumes. A notable price shock was detected in 2019, with import prices jumping by 118.4% (shock analysis), possibly linked to US-China trade tensions redirecting higher-quality Chinese wool fabrics toward the EU. Meanwhile, EU exports to China fell modestly from €29.9 million to €26.1 million (−12.9%), indicating that China's domestic market has not grown as a destination for EU wool fabrics during this period.

3. Italian Dominance, Concentrated Production, and a Shifting Product Mix

3.1. Italy anchors the EU's competitive position in global wool fabrics

The EU's specialisation analysis for 2025 reveals that Italy holds an overwhelming Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) of 9.26 in CN 5111 — meaning Italian exports of this product are more than nine times more concentrated than the EU average. Italy accounted for 74.2% of EU production value and 8.0% of total EU exports in this category.

Italian exports declined from €195.7 million to €169.9 million (−13.2%), but Italy's dominance remained unchallenged. By contrast, several smaller EU exporters saw far steeper declines: Lithuania (−72.3%) and Belgium (−77.7%) virtually exited the category, while Denmark (−30.0%) and Germany (−35.3%) also contracted. Spain was a notable exception, growing from €23.8 million to €31.3 million (+31.9%), and France expanded from €6.2 million to €9.2 million (+47.2%).

3.2. Export concentration increased substantially

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for export concentration by value rose from 624 to 1,050 (+68.2%), and by volume from 663 to 2,436 (+267.5%). This dramatic increase reflects the consolidation of EU exports into fewer, larger flows — notably the rise of Morocco and the collapse of several smaller destinations. While the HHI remains below the threshold typically associated with high concentration (2,500), the trend is unmistakable: the EU's export base for wool fabrics has narrowed considerably.

On the import side, concentration remained high but relatively stable, with an HHI around 3,576 by value — reflecting the continued dominance of the United Kingdom as the EU's primary import source.

3.3. Production volumes rose while values fell — a puzzle

EU production of CN 5111 fabrics grew from 35.9 million m² to 53.6 million m² (+49.3%), yet production value declined from €852.5 million to €584.5 million (−31.4%). This counterintuitive divergence may reflect a shift in the product mix toward lower-unit-value subcategories (e.g., blends with synthetic fibres) even as volumes increased, or it could indicate that a larger share of production is being channelled into export-oriented manufacturing (cut-make-trim) rather than domestic consumption. It is also possible that the production figures capture intermediate products destined for further processing.

3.4. The product mix shifted toward heavier pure-wool fabrics and away from synthetic blends

At the sub-product level, the dominant export subcategory is 511130 (wool mixed with synthetic staple fibres), which accounted for 5,628 tonnes in 2025, down from 6,799 tonnes in 2015. However, the fastest-growing subcategory by value was 511119 (≥85% pure wool, >300 g/m²), whose export value rose from €68.1 million to €73.2 million (+7.5%) despite a volume decline from 1,798 to 1,279 tonnes. This suggests premiumisation within the pure-wool segment.

On the import side, the most notable shift was the sharp decline of 511130 imports (from 813 to 288 tonnes, −64.6%), while 511119 imports remained more resilient (792 to 702 tonnes). This is consistent with the EU becoming less reliant on imported blended fabrics and more focused on sourcing high-end pure-wool materials.

Conclusion

The EU's trade in carded wool fabrics (CN 5111) over the 2015–2025 period tells a story of structural adjustment rather than decline. While export and import volumes contracted by roughly a quarter, values proved far more resilient — declining only modestly on the export side and remaining stable on the import side — thanks to sustained unit price increases of 19% to 42%. This pattern points to a clear premiumisation trend: the EU is producing and trading fewer but more valuable wool fabrics.

Geographically, the most significant development has been the rise of Morocco as the EU's primary export destination, reflecting broader nearshoring dynamics in the European textile and fashion supply chain. Simultaneously, Brexit dealt a lasting blow to EU-UK wool fabric trade, and geopolitical disruptions reduced flows to and from Ukraine. Italy's dominance as the EU's production and export powerhouse remains unquestioned, though the export base has become more concentrated.

Looking forward, the data suggests that the EU's competitive advantage in CN 5111 lies in the higher end of the product spectrum — pure wool fabrics, blends with premium characteristics, and niche technical applications. The challenge for the industry will be to sustain this premium positioning amid rising input costs and evolving fashion consumption patterns.