Market evolution: Carded or combed fine animal hair yarn (CN 5108) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the trade dynamics of CN 5108 — carded or combed yarn of fine animal hair (excluding wool and yarn put up for retail sale) — within the European Union over the period 2015–2025. The product encompasses two sub-categories: carded yarn (510810) and combed yarn (510820). Fine animal hair yarn is a niche, high-value textile input used predominantly in luxury apparel. Over the decade, the EU market has undergone a profound structural transformation: the bloc shifted from a comfortable trade surplus to a deficit, import prices nearly doubled, and EU production collapsed. The analysis below identifies and explains the principal dynamics behind these changes.

1. The Structural Reversal: From Trade Surplus to Deficit

1.1 A decade-long erosion of the EU's net exporter position

In 2015, the EU recorded a trade surplus of €18.5 million in CN 5108, exporting €49.2 million against imports of €30.7 million. By 2025, this position had fully reversed: imports reached €54.6 million — an increase of 77.4% — while exports grew only modestly to €52.2 million (+6.0%), resulting in a deficit of €2.4 million. This swing of over €20 million marks a fundamental shift in the EU's competitive standing in this product category, as shown in the trade overview.

1.2 Volume and price divergences explain the reversal

The paradox of the EU's trade deterioration lies in the contrasting behaviour of volumes and prices. On the export side, volumes actually grew from 688 tonnes to 797 tonnes (+15.8%), but unit prices fell from €71,500/t to €65,443/t (−8.5%), eroding value gains. On the import side, volumes declined from 697 tonnes to 648 tonnes (−7.0%), yet unit prices surged from €44,097/t to €84,143/t (+90.8%). In other words, the EU now pays nearly double per tonne of imported fine animal hair yarn while earning less per tonne exported — a margin squeeze that explains the deficit without any need for a volume-driven import surge.

1.3 The 2020 pandemic shock and the post-COVID price spiral

Both import and export volumes hit their trough around 2020 — imports fell to 307 tonnes and exports to 491 tonnes — reflecting the pandemic-induced disruption of luxury textile supply chains. However, the recovery was asymmetric: import volumes partially recovered but import prices accelerated sharply from 2020 onward, rising from ~€57,000/t in 2020 to over €84,000/t by 2025. This post-COVID price escalation, likely reflecting global scarcity of fine animal hair (cashmere, mohair, alpaca) and higher raw-material costs, is the single most important driver of the trade balance reversal.

2. Geographic Realignment and Rising Import Concentration

2.1 Italy: the undisputed hub of EU fine animal hair trade

Italy dominates both the import and export sides of EU trade in CN 5108. On the import side, Italy accounted for €42.3 million of the EU's €54.6 million in imports in 2025 (77%), up from €21.5 million in 2015 — a near-doubling consistent with Italy's role as the centre of European luxury knitwear and fine-yarn processing. On the export side, Italian exports stood at €49.6 million in 2025 (of the EU's €52.2 million total), reflecting the country's integration into global luxury supply chains. The overwhelming dominance of Italy, visible in the top reporters data, underscores the extreme geographic concentration of this niche within the EU.

2.2 China's meteoric rise as the EU's primary import source

Among non-EU partners, China's share of EU imports grew most dramatically: from €9.4 million (2015) to €26.8 million (2025), an increase of 183.6%. China is now the single largest source of fine animal hair yarn imports, overtaking traditional suppliers. This reflects China's dominant position in global cashmere processing and its control over much of the world's raw and semi-processed fine animal hair supply chain. By contrast, imports from Peru (−17.9%) and the United Kingdom (+69.0% — partly reflecting post-Brexit trade reclassification) show more modest evolutions, as seen in the partner data.

2.3 Export diversification away from Hong Kong toward new markets

On the export side, the most notable shift is the decline of Hong Kong as the EU's top export destination — from €17.8 million (2015) to €7.3 million (2025), a drop of 59.3%. Meanwhile, exports to China (+105.3%), Russia (+364.8%), Türkiye (+68.6%), and the United States (+41.8%) all grew substantially. This diversification is reflected in the declining export Herfindahl–Hirschman Index (HHI), which fell from 1,928 to 1,084 (−43.8%), indicating that EU exports are now spread across a wider range of destinations. The concentration data confirms this trend.

2.4 Import concentration has worsened despite geographic shifts

While exports diversified, imports moved in the opposite direction. The import HHI rose from 2,455 to 3,371 (+37.3%), driven primarily by China's growing dominance. This rising concentration increases the EU's vulnerability to supply disruptions from a single source — a concern amplified by the volatility data, which shows that some of the EU's smaller import partners (Bolivia, Mongolia, Türkiye) exhibit extremely high coefficients of variation (>0.9), indicating unreliable or episodic supply. The volatility analysis highlights this risk.

3. A Tale of Two Segments: The Carded Yarn Price Explosion

3.1 Carded yarn (510810) drove the entire import value surge

The two sub-segments of CN 5108 — carded (510810) and combed (510820) yarn — followed starkly different trajectories. For imports, combed yarn (510820) volumes fluctuated but remained broadly in the 200–400 tonne range, with unit prices rising from €32,768/t to €42,684/t (+30%). Carded yarn (510810), by contrast, saw its unit import price nearly double: from €63,008/t in 2015 to €123,890/t in 2025 (+96.6%). This price explosion in carded yarn — which now accounts for €41.0 million of the EU's €54.6 million in total imports (75%) — is the primary driver of the overall import bill inflation. The segment-level data is available in the product comparison.

3.2 Export prices moved in the opposite direction for carded yarn

On the export side, carded yarn (510810) unit prices actually declined from €109,008/t to €76,243/t (−30.1%) over the period, while combed yarn prices remained relatively stable (~€52,000/t). This means that the EU is importing carded fine animal hair yarn at increasingly premium prices while exporting it at lower unit values — a pattern consistent with the EU importing higher-quality or specialty-grade raw material for processing and re-exporting finished goods at competitive (or compressed) margins. The widening import–export price gap for carded yarn (from ~€46,000/t differential in 2015 to ~€48,000/t in 2025) further underscores the margin pressure facing EU processors.

3.3 EU production collapse signals deep structural change

The most striking data point in the entire dataset concerns EU domestic production. According to the production volumes, production quantity fell from 279,095,179 kg in the first recorded period to 62,502,091 kg by 2025 — a decline of 77.6%. Production value fell from €1.79 billion to €1.02 billion (−42.7%). While the quantity collapse is dramatic, the smaller decline in value indicates that remaining production shifted toward higher-value output. This production decline likely reflects the rationalisation of EU textile manufacturing, with Italy (holding an RSCA of 0.806 and an RCA of 9.32, the highest among large economies) consolidating its position as the sole major specialised producer, while other member states exited. Italy alone accounts for 74.7% of EU production value in this segment, as shown in the specialisation data.

Conclusion

The EU market for carded or combed fine animal hair yarn (CN 5108) has undergone a fundamental transformation between 2015 and 2025. What was a comfortable trade surplus of €18.5 million has become a small deficit, driven not by a collapse in export volumes — which actually grew — but by a dramatic escalation in import prices, nearly doubling to €84,143/t. The carded yarn sub-segment (510810) bore the brunt of this inflation, with import unit prices reaching €123,890/t by 2025. Simultaneously, the EU's import sourcing became more concentrated on China (+183.6%), while exports diversified away from Hong Kong toward a broader set of markets. EU domestic production, meanwhile, contracted by over three-quarters in volume terms, leaving Italy as the overwhelmingly dominant — and increasingly specialised — producer. Looking ahead, the rising import concentration and persistent price asymmetry between imports and exports suggest continued margin pressure for EU-based fine animal hair yarn processors, with limited near-term prospects for reversing the structural trade deficit.