Market evolution: Fine coarse animal hair (CN 5102) — 2015–2025

Introduction

The EU trade in fine or coarse animal hair (CN 5102) — a product grouping that encompasses raw cashmere goat hair, other fine animal hair, and coarse animal hair not carded or combed — is characterised by a deep and widening structural trade deficit. Over the 2015–2025 period, the EU consistently imported far more than it exported in both value and volume terms. Total import value rose from €226.8 million in 2015 to €264.8 million in 2025 (+16.7%), while export value contracted from €19.3 million to €14.7 million (−23.9%), resulting in a trade deficit that widened from −€207.5 million to −€250.1 million (General Overview). A defining feature of this market is that Italy accounts for the overwhelming majority of EU trade in this product — both on the import and export side — reflecting the concentration of the European luxury textile supply chain. The period also witnessed a dramatic escalation of unit values and a major price shock centred on 2022, linked primarily to Chinese-origin cashmere. This report examines three key dynamics: the growing volume–value divergence, the geographic reorientation of trade partners, and the concentration and volatility patterns that have shaped this niche market.

1. A Widening Volume–Value Divergence

A central finding of this period is the progressive decoupling between traded quantities and traded values. The EU has been importing and exporting steadily less animal hair by weight, yet paying and receiving significantly more per tonne. This signals both structural shifts in the raw material market and the growing premiumisation of the product.

Import volumes contracted while values held firm

EU imports of CN 5102 fell from 4,539 tonnes in 2015 to 3,909 tonnes in 2025 (−13.9%). Yet import value rose from €226.8 million to €264.8 million (+16.7%), because the average import unit price climbed from €49,977/t to €67,733/t (+35.5%). The peak year for import value was 2022 at €443.3 million, driven by a spike in unit prices to €78,313/t — the highest in the series. Import volumes peaked earlier, reaching 5,661 tonnes in 2018, and have since trended downward (General Overview).

Export volumes collapsed, prices surged even more sharply

The export side tells an even starker story. EU export volumes fell from 506 tonnes in 2015 to just 210 tonnes in 2025 (−58.4%), while export value declined from €19.3 million to €14.7 million (−23.9%). The unit export price, however, nearly doubled: from €38,171/t to €69,778/t (+82.8%). The peak export price was €87,569/t in 2022, the same year as the import price spike. This implies that the EU is retaining and processing less raw animal hair, and what it does export has shifted toward higher-value, finer grades (General Overview).

Cashmere dominates the import basket and drove the price surge

The sub-product breakdown reveals that cashmere goat hair (CN 510211) constitutes the dominant import category by both volume and value. In 2025, cashmere imports stood at 2,542 tonnes and €243.9 million — accounting for roughly 65% of import volume and 92% of import value. The average cashmere import price rose from €84,804/t in 2015 to €95,963/t in 2025, peaking at €104,290/t in 2022. By contrast, other fine animal hair (CN 510219) saw volumes halve from 1,047t to 547t while its value remained stable at around €18.7 million, implying a unit price increase from €17,856/t to €34,132/t (+91%). Coarse animal hair (CN 510220) remained a marginal category at 820t and €2.2 million in 2025 (Product Segment Breakdown).

On the export side, cashmere exports (CN 510211) fell from 185t/€13.9M to 83t/€7.1M, while other fine animal hair exports (CN 510219) saw volumes decline from 144t to 100t but value rise from €4.9M to €7.3M, reflecting the sharp increase in fine-hair export prices. Coarse animal hair exports (CN 510220) collapsed from 176t to 28t.

2. Geographic Reorientation and Partner Volatility

The geographic landscape of EU trade in CN 5102 shifted markedly over the decade, with some long-standing partners losing ground and others emerging or surging.

China and Mongolia consolidate as the twin pillars of EU imports

China remained the overwhelmingly dominant import supplier throughout the period, rising from €168.8 million in 2015 to €204.8 million in 2025 (+21.3%), after peaking at €345.3 million in 2022. Mongolia, the second-largest supplier, grew from €34.4 million to €46.3 million (+34.3%), reaching a high of €70.8 million in 2022. Together, China and Mongolia accounted for the vast majority of EU import value, reflecting the global dominance of these two countries in raw cashmere production (General Overview — Partners).

Iran's near-total withdrawal and UK's post-Brexit decline

Two partners experienced dramatic declines on the import side. Imports from Iran collapsed from €8.3 million in 2015 to just €0.4 million in 2025 (−95.5%), likely reflecting international sanctions regimes and trade restrictions. The United Kingdom, formerly the third-largest import source at €4.0 million, fell to €1.2 million (−70.6%), consistent with the disruption of intra-European supply chains following Brexit. South Africa also declined from €2.7M to €1.2M (−56.4%) (General Overview — Partners).

EU export destinations diversify away from the United Kingdom

On the export side, the United Kingdom was by far the largest destination in 2015 at €12.5 million, but this fell to €4.1 million by 2025 (−67.4%). In its place, several smaller but fast-growing markets emerged. Bolivia surged from €0.65 million to €2.0 million (+213.2%), the United States grew from €1.8 million to €3.1 million (+69.9%), and Türkiye rose from €0.79 million to €1.26 million (+59.1%). Australia also became a notable buyer at €1.2 million (General Overview — Partners).

This diversification is confirmed by the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for export concentration by value, which fell sharply from 4,356 to 1,673 (−61.6%), indicating a move from a moderately concentrated export market to a much more dispersed one. Import concentration remained relatively stable (HHI: 5,793 → 6,295), consistent with the continued dominance of China and Mongolia (Market Structure — Concentration).

3. Price Shocks, Supply Volatility, and the Italian Pivot

The 2015–2025 period was punctuated by significant price shocks and supply-side volatility, concentrated in the 2019–2022 window. Italy's overwhelming role as both importer and exporter gives it a structural centrality in any analysis of this market.

The 2022 price shock: a watershed moment for Chinese cashmere

The most significant shock event detected in the data occurred in 2022. EU import prices from China surged by +53.6% relative to the surrounding trend (abnormality score of 19.7), with China accounting for 83.1% of total import value in that year. On the export side, EU export prices to China jumped by an extraordinary +675% (abnormality score of 28.6). A separate export price shock was detected for Türkiye in 2019, where prices shifted by +166.2%. These events reflect the broader commodity price inflation and supply chain disruptions of the COVID-19 recovery period, compounded by specific factors in the global cashmere supply chain, including herd reductions in Mongolia and tightening quality standards (Volatility & Shocks).

Import supply volatility varies sharply by origin

The coefficient of variation (CV) of import values by partner reveals substantial differences in supply reliability. China, the largest partner, showed relatively low volatility (CV: 0.15), confirming its role as a stable bulk supplier. Mongolia was moderately volatile (CV: 0.24). By contrast, several smaller suppliers exhibited very high volatility: Iran (CV: 0.78), Pakistan (CV: 0.67), South Africa (CV: 0.46), and Afghanistan (CV: 1.37). These high-volatility origins represent opportunistic or irregular sourcing channels rather than stable supply relationships (Volatility & Shocks).

Italy anchors the EU market, with France and Czechia rising on the periphery

Italy dominated EU imports throughout the period, rising from €214.6 million in 2015 to €252.3 million in 2025 (+17.5%), peaking at €428.2 million in 2022. Italy's Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA) of 0.701 and RCA of 5.69 confirm an exceptionally strong specialisation in this product, consistent with its world-renowned cashmere and fine-fibre textile industry (Market Structure — Specialisation).

Notable shifts occurred among smaller EU member states. France's imports surged from a negligible €69,072 in 2015 to €5.6 million in 2025 (+8,072%), suggesting the emergence of new processing or trading capacity. Lithuania's imports similarly grew from €12K to €329K. On the export side, Czechia emerged from virtually nothing (€1,474 in 2015) to over €1 million in 2025, while Spain's exports grew from €0.4M to €1.8M (+341.5%). Meanwhile, Germany's role diminished on both sides: imports fell 44.3% and exports fell 71.8% (General Overview — Reporters).

Conclusion

The EU market for fine or coarse animal hair (CN 5102) over 2015–2025 is defined by three intertwined trends. First, a persistent and widening trade deficit driven by the EU's dependence on imported raw cashmere, principally from China and Mongolia, while export volumes have nearly halved. Second, a dramatic escalation of unit prices — particularly around the 2022 shock — that has pushed the value of trade higher even as physical volumes have contracted. This reflects both global supply tightening and the premiumisation of the cashmere value chain. Third, a geographic reorientation: the UK's role has diminished sharply on both the import and export sides (likely linked to Brexit), while new export markets such as Bolivia and Australia have emerged and new EU actors like France, Czechia, and Spain have gained prominence alongside the ever-dominant Italy. The concentration of imports around China-Mongolia remains high, making the EU vulnerable to supply disruptions in Central Asia, while the diversification of export destinations offers some resilience on the outbound side. Looking ahead, the structural reliance on a narrow set of raw-material origins and the continued dominance of Italy's textile cluster will remain the defining features of this niche but strategically significant market.