Market evolution: Carded wool yarn (CN 5106) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of EU external trade in carded wool yarn not put up for retail sale (Customs classification 5106) over the period 2015–2025. The product covers two sub-categories: yarn containing ≥85% wool by weight (CN 510610) and yarn containing predominantly but less than 85% wool (CN 510620). Over the decade, the EU has remained a consistent net exporter of this product, yet the market has undergone profound structural change: trade volumes have contracted significantly on both the import and export sides, unit values have risen markedly, and EU domestic production has collapsed by nearly three-quarters in quantity terms. These dynamics reflect a broader reorganisation of the European textile supply chain, with a shift toward higher-value product segments and a reorientation of geographic trade flows. The analysis draws on official trade statistics as reported in the EU Trade Dashboard.

1. Declining Volumes, Rising Prices: A Decade of Contraction in Quantities

The most striking feature of the EU carded wool yarn market over 2015–2025 is the simultaneous decline in traded volumes and the increase in unit values. Both exports and imports fell sharply in quantity terms, while prices per tonne moved in the opposite direction — a pattern that points to a market undergoing structural consolidation rather than merely cyclical fluctuation.

Export volumes fell by a third while unit values rose by nearly a fifth

EU exports of CN 5106 declined from 16,977 tonnes and €173.4 million in 2015 to 11,072 tonnes and €133.1 million in 2025, representing decreases of 34.8% in volume and 23.3% in value. However, the average export price rose from €10,216/t to €12,019/t (+17.6%), partially cushioning the revenue impact of lower volumes. The peak export year was 2016 at 18,416 tonnes; volumes then declined steadily, with a pronounced dip during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 (11,272 tonnes), a partial recovery in 2021 (13,533 tonnes), and a continued slide thereafter. General trade overview

Import volumes contracted even more severely, with prices nearly doubling

EU imports fell from 3,657 tonnes and €28.2 million in 2015 to just 1,141 tonnes and €17.0 million in 2025 — a decline of 68.8% in volume and 39.6% in value. Import unit values nearly doubled over the same period, rising from €7,718/t to €14,937/t (+93.5%). The gap between import and export prices widened substantially: by 2025, EU export prices stood at €12,019/t while import prices had reached €14,937/t, reversing the earlier pattern where imported yarn was cheaper. This price inversion suggests a compositional shift in imports toward higher-quality or more specialised products. General trade overview

The mixed-wool segment bore the brunt of the volume decline, while pure-wool exports proved more resilient

A breakdown by product sub-segment reveals a stark divergence. Exports of CN 510620 (mixed-wool yarn, <85% wool) dropped from 12,469 tonnes (€101.6M) in 2015 to 5,535 tonnes (€50.8M) in 2025 — a 55.6% decline in volume. In contrast, exports of CN 510610 (pure-wool yarn, ≥85% wool) actually increased from 4,508 tonnes to 5,537 tonnes (+22.8%), and their value rose from €71.9M to €82.3M (+14.5%). By 2025, the two sub-segments had converged in volume, each accounting for roughly half of total exports — a dramatic shift from 2015, when the mixed-wool segment dominated at a 3:1 ratio. On the import side, the pure-wool segment (510610) proved relatively stable (702 t → 561 t), while mixed-wool imports collapsed from 2,955 t to just 580 t. Product segment breakdown

2. Geographic Reconfiguration: Shifting Partners and Declining Concentration

The period saw a notable reorientation of EU trade in carded wool yarn. Traditional partners — above all the United Kingdom — lost share, while several new or previously minor partners gained prominence. Overall, trade became less concentrated, as indicated by declining Herfindahl-Hirschman Indices (HHI) on both the import and export sides.

The United Kingdom remained the dominant partner but saw steep declines in both directions

The UK was by far the largest single partner for EU carded wool yarn trade throughout the period, accounting for €70.9M of exports and €21.8M of imports in 2015. By 2025, UK-bound exports had fallen to €48.2M (−31.9%) and imports from the UK to €9.7M (−55.5%). Brexit — which took full effect in January 2021 — likely contributed to the disruption in UK-EU trade flows, though the downward trend in volumes was already evident before that date. The UK's share of EU exports shrank from 41% to 36%, and its share of imports fell from 77% to 57%, though it remained the overwhelmingly dominant source. Top partners

Türkiye emerged as a key growth market for EU exports, while Hong Kong and Serbia declined sharply

Among EU export destinations, the most notable growth was recorded by Türkiye (from €7.9M to €16.1M, +103%) and Australia (from €0.5M to €4.8M, +932%). By contrast, exports to Hong Kong roughly halved (€42.5M → €22.1M, −48.0%), and those to Serbia collapsed (€4.9M → €0.7M, −86.0%). These shifts suggest a reorientation of downstream textile processing: Türkiye's textile industry has expanded significantly, absorbing more EU-origin yarn, while some traditional Asian processing hubs have sourced more locally. The United States also grew modestly as a destination (from €5.8M to €7.0M, +21.3%). Top partners

Import sources diversified, with China gaining ground and New Zealand collapsing

On the import side, China's share grew dramatically: EU imports from China rose from €1.0M to €3.5M (+263%), making it the third-largest import source by 2025. Meanwhile, imports from New Zealand — once a significant supplier at €1.9M — essentially disappeared (€0.001M, −99.9%). Türkiye remained a stable secondary supplier (€2.0M → €1.7M, −13.4%). Top partners

Overall trade concentration decreased on both sides

The HHI for imports fell from 6,056 to 4,180 (−31.0%), and the export HHI declined from 2,360 to 1,859 (−21.2%). While both indices remain above the threshold typically associated with a highly fragmented market, the downward trend indicates meaningful diversification — partly driven by the decline of dominant partners and partly by the growth of new trading relationships. Concentration and HHI

3. From Domestic Production to Export Specialisation: The EU's Structural Transformation

Perhaps the most consequential development over the decade was the dramatic contraction of EU domestic production of carded wool yarn, combined with a sharp rise in the sector's export orientation. This points to a fundamental restructuring: the EU has shifted from being a relatively self-contained producer to an increasingly specialised exporter serving global markets, even as the overall scale of activity has diminished.

EU production of carded wool yarn collapsed by 74% in volume

PRODCOM data shows that EU domestic production fell from 146,094 tonnes (€853M) to just 38,054 tonnes (€500M) between the first and last available periods — a decline of 74.0% in quantity and 41.4% in value. This is far steeper than the 34.8% fall in export volumes, indicating that much of the production decline reflects falling domestic consumption rather than a mere relocation of output. The gap between production and exports narrowed dramatically: in 2015, exports represented roughly 12% of production volume; by 2025, the ratio had risen to 29%. Production volumes

Export propensity and trade intensity more than doubled

The sector's export propensity — the share of total output directed to non-EU markets — rose from 13.2% to 34.8% (+162.7%), while trade intensity (the combined import and export share relative to the domestic market) increased from 18.6% to 41.7% (+123.6%). At the same time, the EU's net import reliance deepened from −7.1% to −29.7%, confirming that the EU has become substantially more export-oriented relative to its shrinking production base.

EU Member State specialisation became more concentrated in a handful of countries

Among EU Member States, Italy remained the dominant exporter throughout, accounting for €112.2M (65% of EU exports) in 2015 and €81.6M (61%) in 2025 — a decline of 27.3% but still far ahead of any other Member State. The most remarkable growth was recorded by Lithuania, whose exports surged from €4.4M to €27.2M (+518.9%), elevating it to the second-largest EU exporter. Portugal also grew (€8.6M → €11.1M, +29.6%). By contrast, Belgium's exports collapsed from €19.0M to €0.4M (−97.9%), and Denmark's fell from €13.9M to €1.1M (−92.3%). EU reporters

Revealed comparative advantage data for 2025 confirms Lithuania's emergence as the most specialised EU exporter of carded wool yarn (RSCA of 0.97, RCA of 63.1), followed by Estonia (RSCA 0.94) and Italy (RSCA 0.61). The concentration of specialisation in the Baltic states alongside Italy suggests a bifurcation of the EU supply chain: traditional textile centres (Italy) coexist with cost-competitive Eastern European producers that have carved out strong export niches. Specialisation

Conclusion

Over 2015–2025, the EU market for carded wool yarn (CN 5106) underwent a structural transformation characterised by three interlinked dynamics: a steep decline in traded volumes on both sides, a compensating rise in unit values, and a fundamental reorganisation of the production-trade nexus.

EU domestic production contracted by nearly three-quarters in volume, driving down both the scale of the domestic market and its import needs. At the same time, the sector became far more export-oriented: export propensity more than doubled, and the EU's net exporter position deepened. The product mix shifted toward higher-purity wool yarn (CN 510610), whose export volumes and values held up or grew, while the mixed-wool segment (CN 510620) suffered dramatic declines.

Geographically, the trade map was redrawn. The United Kingdom, while still dominant, saw its share erode — likely accelerated by Brexit. Türkiye and Australia emerged as growth markets for exports, while Hong Kong and several Eastern European destinations declined. Import sources diversified, with China gaining and New Zealand virtually disappearing. Italy remained the undisputed EU production and export hub, but Lithuania's rise — with export growth of over 500% — signals a meaningful geographic shift within the EU itself.

The net result is a smaller, more specialised, and more globally integrated EU carded wool yarn sector. While the decline in volumes signals contraction, the rising unit values and growing export orientation suggest that the EU has retained its competitive position in higher-value segments of this niche market. The key risk going forward is concentration: with Italy and Lithuania now accounting for an outsized share of EU exports, disruptions in either country could have disproportionate effects on the bloc's external trade in this product.