Market evolution: Horsehair yarn (CN 5110) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyses the evolution of the European Union's external trade in horsehair yarn (Combined Nomenclature code 5110) over the 2015–2025 period. The market for this specialized product exhibits a clear structural shift: a substantial contraction in traded volumes coupled with a significant rise in unit values. These dynamics reflect a market undergoing reorientation, moving from broad, volume-driven trade to a more niche, value-focused segment. The EU's role has transformed from a significant importer and exporter towards a more consolidated and specialized position within global supply chains.

1. Contraction in Volume, Surge in Value: A Market in Transformation

The most prominent trend over the decade is the sharp decline in the physical quantity of horsehair yarn traded by the EU, contrasted with a dramatic increase in its average unit price. This indicates a fundamental shift in the nature of the product and its market.

1.1 A Steep Decline in Traded Volume

The EU's trade in horsehair yarn has contracted severely in tonnage. From 2015 to 2025, import quantity fell by 65.2%, dropping from 85.4 tonnes to 29.7 tonnes. The decline was even more pronounced for exports, which plummeted by 78.9%, from 14.7 tonnes to just 3.1 tonnes. This suggests a long-term reduction in demand for the standard grades of this yarn or a significant shift in global production and sourcing patterns.

1.2 The Paradox of Rising Unit Prices

Despite the collapse in volume, the average price per tonne (unit value) soared. Import unit values increased by 69.5%, rising from €15,335/t to €26,000/t. The increase on the export side was even more staggering, with unit values jumping by 270.4% to €87,400/t in 2025. This inverse relationship between volume and price strongly points to a market evolution towards higher-value, more specialized, or processed grades of horsehair yarn, where the EU may be adding significant value.

2. Shifting Partners and Consolidating EU Supply Chains

The geographical landscape of the EU's horsehair yarn trade has been redrawn, with traditional partners declining in importance and new suppliers emerging, while the EU's own export profile has become more concentrated and specialized.

2.1 Diversification of Import Suppliers

The EU's import base has shifted away from its historically dominant partner. Imports from Switzerland, while still the largest in value, fell by 45.4%. Meanwhile, suppliers like the Faroe Islands and Türkiye have grown substantially, with value from the latter surging over the period. The disappearance of Peru as a major supplier (value down 99.4%) is a notable shock. This diversification suggests a reconfiguration of the supply chain, possibly driven by cost, logistics, or the search for specific raw material qualities.

2.2 EU Exports: Declining Volume but Niche Specialization

The EU's export market has contracted in breadth. While shipments to the United Kingdom—the top destination—declined, they remained substantial. More telling is the EU's evolving specialization. Italy has emerged as a highly specialized exporter, with a Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA) of 0.84 in 2025, indicating strong competitive focus. This aligns with the surge in export unit values, suggesting Italy and other EU exporters may be specializing in finished, high-end yarn for luxury textiles or technical applications.

3. Increased Volatility and Defining Market Shocks

The market's evolution towards lower volumes and higher values has been accompanied by increased price volatility and the occurrence of significant, isolated trade shocks, highlighting the segment's vulnerability to disruptions.

3.1 High Variability in Key Trade Flows

Volatility, measured by the coefficient of variation (CV), is high for trade with several key partners. Notably, export volatility to Türkiye is the highest among the top partners (CV of 2.63), and imports from Iceland show extreme volatility (CV of 1.88). This indicates that trade flows with many partners are unstable, which is characteristic of a niche market sensitive to single large orders or production disruptions.

3.2 Acute Price Shocks in Export Markets

The data detects several major supply shocks, all in the export flow. The most pronounced was a price shock to Japan in 2020, with an abnormality score of 15.4 and a price shift of +959.1%. Similar, though slightly less extreme, shocks affected exports to China (2022) and the United States (2019). These events are likely tied to sudden, specific demand from luxury fashion or craft industries and underscore the market's price sensitivity to discrete, high-value transactions rather than stable bulk trade.

Conclusion

The EU's horsehair yarn market (CN 5110) has undergone a profound transformation between 2015 and 2025. The era of volume-driven trade has ended, replaced by a smaller, more specialized market characterized by significantly higher unit values. This shift is evident in the reshaped geography of trade, with new supplier relationships forming and EU exports concentrating in specialized niches, as exemplified by Italy's strong comparative advantage. However, this new market structure comes with heightened volatility and exposure to acute price shocks, reflecting its niche nature and dependence on specific, often luxury, end-use sectors. The EU has transitioned from being a major conduit in a broader trade flow to a focused player in the high-value segment of the global horsehair yarn industry.