Market evolution: Greasy wool (CN 5101) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of the European Union's external trade in CN 5101 — wool, neither carded nor combed — over the period 2015–2025. The product heading encompasses greasy shorn wool, degreased wool, and carbonised wool in raw (unprocessed) form, all of which feed into the EU's downstream textile and apparel supply chain.

The decade under review was marked by a pronounced and sustained contraction of the EU's wool trade with the rest of the world. Both imports and exports declined in value and volume, domestic production virtually collapsed, and the geographic composition of trading partners shifted meaningfully. The analysis draws on trade flows, partner concentration metrics, production data, and supply-shock indicators to paint a comprehensive picture of a market in structural decline.

Full product overview on the Trade Dashboard

1. A Broad-Based Contraction Across Both Trade Flows

EU imports fell in volume while prices edged upward

Over the 2015–2025 period, the EU's imports of CN 5101 declined substantially. In value terms, imports fell from €376.5 million to €277.0 million (−26.4%), while quantities contracted from 87,393 tonnes to 61,331 tonnes (−29.8%). Importantly, the average unit import price actually increased slightly over the period, rising from €4,308 per tonne to €4,517 per tonne (+4.8%). This divergence — falling volumes but resilient prices — suggests that demand remained concentrated in higher-quality or higher-value wool types even as total quantities shrank.

Source: General Overview — trade

EU exports declined even more sharply than imports

The contraction on the export side was considerably more severe. Export values dropped by nearly two-thirds (−64.7%), from €115.4 million to just €40.7 million. Export volumes fell by a third (−34.3%), meaning that the average export price was cut almost in half, declining from €1,631 per tonne to €876 per tonne (−46.3%). The EU thus became a less significant exporter of raw wool, both in terms of the quantities it shipped abroad and the prices it was able to command.

The persistent price gap between imports and exports reflects different market roles

Throughout the entire period, the EU's average import price consistently exceeded its average export price — by a factor of roughly 2.6× in 2015 and 5.2× in 2025. This widening gap indicates that the EU increasingly imported premium-quality wool (particularly greasy shorn wool and carbonised wool, both commanding high unit prices) while exporting lower-value residual or surplus wool. The EU functioned as a net importer of high-quality raw material for its textile industry, and a diminishing re-exporter of lower-value product.

COVID-19 delivered a temporary but deep shock to both flows

The year 2020 stands out as a clear inflection point. Import quantities dropped to their minimum across the period (falling to lower levels than in any other year), and export volumes similarly hit their trough. The pandemic disrupted global logistics, shuttered textile mills across Europe, and suppressed demand from end-use sectors. However, the recovery from 2021 onward was uneven: imports rebounded more strongly than exports, reinforcing the structural divergence between the two flows.

2. Reconfiguration of Trading Partners and Price Dynamics

Australia and New Zealand remained dominant import suppliers but lost ground

Australia was the EU's single largest source of wool imports throughout the period, though its share eroded. Import values from Australia fell from €161.3 million to €108.3 million (−32.9%), while New Zealand — the second-largest supplier — saw a decline from €95.6 million to €57.5 million (−39.9%). Together, the two Oceanian suppliers still accounted for the majority of EU wool imports in 2025, but their combined weight had diminished from the levels observed at the start of the decade.

Source: Top import partners

South Africa emerged as a major growth story among EU suppliers

The most striking partner-level development was the surge in imports from South Africa, which more than doubled from €22.2 million to €49.1 million (+121.1%). At its peak, South African imports reached €98.5 million. This growth partially offset declines from traditional Oceanian suppliers and suggests a deliberate diversification of the EU's wool sourcing — potentially driven by competitive pricing, quality considerations, or trade-policy factors. South Africa's role as a price-competitive supplier of greasy wool made it an increasingly attractive alternative.

EU export markets contracted across the board, with China leading the decline

On the export side, the EU's largest customer — China — saw its purchases fall from €74.9 million to €25.6 million (−65.8%). This single-country decline accounts for the bulk of the overall export contraction. Other major destinations also retreated: the United Kingdom (−67.8%), Türkiye (−74.2%), and India (−35.1%). The only notable bright spot was Egypt, where EU wool exports grew from €0.1 million to €0.6 million (+392.3%), albeit from a very low base.

Source: Top export partners

Import prices from major partners showed divergent trajectories

The unit prices paid to different suppliers tell a nuanced story. The import price from Australia — which dominates the EU's wool supply — exhibited a clear spike in 2022, with an abnormality score of 4.8 and a price shift of +31.7%, likely reflecting post-pandemic supply tightness and strong global demand recovery. By contrast, South African import prices experienced a sharp negative shock centred on 2020 (abnormality 5.9, shift of −28.8%), coinciding with pandemic-era disruptions and suggesting that South African wool was offered at discounted prices during the crisis, potentially accelerating its market-share gains.

Source: Supply shocks

Market concentration remained moderate for imports but high for exports

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for import values decreased from 2,670 to 2,370 (−11.3%), indicating a modest diversification of import sources — consistent with the rise of South Africa as an alternative to the traditional Oceanian duopoly. For exports, the HHI remained substantially higher (from 4,495 to 4,270), reflecting the continued dominance of China as the EU's primary export destination. In volume terms, the import HHI also declined (from 1,726 to 1,648), while the export volume HHI edged up slightly (from 3,564 to 3,652).

Source: Concentration indices

3. Domestic Production Collapse and Deepening Import Dependence

EU wool production experienced a dramatic structural decline

Perhaps the most striking development in the data is the near-total collapse of EU domestic production of wool (neither carded nor combed). Production quantities fell from 70,511 tonnes in the first observed year to just 9,999 tonnes in the last — a decline of 85.8%. Production values followed a similar trajectory, dropping from €41.5 million to €13.8 million (−66.6%). This represents a fundamental restructuring of the EU's position in the global wool value chain: from a modest producer alongside its role as a major importer, the EU became overwhelmingly dependent on external supply.

Source: Production volumes

Net import reliance remained persistently high and slightly increased

The EU's net import reliance — the share of apparent consumption satisfied by imports — started the period at 80.9% and ended at 83.7% (+3.4 percentage points). This metric dipped as low as 62.4% at one point and peaked at 90.7%, but the overall trend was one of increasing dependence on foreign wool. With domestic production shrinking by 85.8%, the EU had little capacity to substitute local supply for imports, even as total import volumes also declined (reflecting falling overall consumption).

Source: Net import reliance

Production specialisation was concentrated in a handful of EU member states

The EU's remaining wool production was geographically concentrated. Among EU member states, Spain held the largest production share (28.3%) among the most specialised producers, followed by Belgium (14.8%), Portugal (6.7%), and Lithuania (4.8%). At the other end, countries such as Greece, Sweden, Slovenia, and Slovakia had virtually no specialisation in wool production (RSCA scores close to −1.0). This concentration meant that the decline of EU production was not evenly distributed: it was driven by the withdrawal of historically important wool-producing nations.

Source: Specialisation indicators

Italy and Czechia dominated EU-level imports, but their trajectories diverged

Among EU member states acting as importers, Italy was by far the largest (€179.4 million in 2015, declining to €132.9 million by 2025, −25.9%), reflecting its role as the EU's premier wool textile-processing hub. Czechia was the second-largest importer (from €84.6 million to €71.5 million, −15.5%). Notably, Lithuania's imports actually grew (+56.1%, from €16.2 million to €25.3 million), and Portugal's rose as well (+50.6%), suggesting a geographical shift in wool-processing activity within Europe. Germany and Belgium, by contrast, saw dramatic declines (−71.4% and −84.7% respectively), indicating a withdrawal from wool processing in those countries.

Source: EU member state importers

Greasy shorn wool dominated the product mix, but all sub-categories contracted

Breaking down CN 5101 by its sub-headings reveals that greasy shorn wool (510111) was the dominant import category throughout the period, accounting for roughly half of import quantities. Its volume declined from 44,988 tonnes to 32,891 tonnes (−26.9%). Degreased shorn wool (510121) was the second-largest segment, falling from 34,129 tonnes to 23,105 tonnes (−32.3%). The smallest category — greasy wool excluding shorn (510119) — collapsed most dramatically, from 1,869 tonnes to just 367 tonnes (−80.3%).

On the export side, greasy shorn wool (510111) also dominated but fell from 55,091 tonnes to 32,091 tonnes (−41.7%). An interesting development was the surge in exports of degreased wool excluding shorn (510129), which grew from 551 tonnes to 3,995 tonnes — an increase of over 600%, suggesting niche demand for this sub-category from non-EU buyers.

Source: Product segment comparison

Conclusion

The EU's trade in greasy wool (CN 5101) over 2015–2025 tells a story of structural decline across virtually every dimension: volumes, values, domestic production, and the number of active trading partners. Total import quantities fell by nearly 30%, export quantities by over a third, and EU domestic production by a staggering 85.8%. The EU's net import reliance remained above 80% throughout, rising modestly as local production evaporated.

Several structural forces likely underpin this trajectory. The long-term contraction of the European textile industry reduced demand for raw wool as a processing input. The shift toward synthetic fibres and changing fashion consumption patterns further eroded the market. Meanwhile, the EU's sheep-farming sector — the source of domestic wool production — continued its decades-long decline, driven by low profitability and competing land uses.

On the partner side, the most notable development was South Africa's emergence as a major supplier, more than doubling its export value to the EU, while traditional Oceanian suppliers (Australia, New Zealand) retreated. On the export side, China's dominance as a buyer of EU wool remained, but at greatly reduced volumes. The widening price gap between imports and exports suggests that the EU increasingly specialised in sourcing premium raw wool while losing competitiveness as an exporter of lower-grade product.

The data paints a picture of an EU wool market that has become smaller, more import-dependent, and more geographically concentrated in its sourcing — a trajectory that raises questions about supply-chain resilience should disruptions to major suppliers intensify.