Market evolution: Coarse animal hair fabrics (CN 5113) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of EU trade in woven fabrics of coarse animal hair or horsehair (Customs code 5113) over the 2015–2025 period. This is a niche textile product — a specialized segment of the broader wool and animal hair sector (chapter 51) — used in traditional furnishings, upholstery, and artisanal applications. The data reveals a market in marked structural decline, with significant contractions in production, trade volumes, and the number of active partners, alongside a notable shift in the EU's commercial position and a rising concentration on higher-value output.

I. A Contracting Market: Falling Production, Shrinking Trade, and Widening Price Gaps

The most striking feature of the decade under review is the broad-based contraction of the EU's coarse animal hair fabric sector — in production, trade volumes, and export breadth — accompanied by a sharp divergence in unit values between exports and imports.

EU production has declined significantly in both volume and value

According to PRODCOM-based production data, EU domestic output of woven coarse animal hair fabrics fell from approximately 122.1 million m² (€1.61 billion) in 2015 to around 88.0 million m² (€0.90 billion) in 2025. This represents a 28% decline in physical volume and a steeper 44% drop in production value, implying that average output prices within the EU have eroded — or that production has shifted toward lower-value segments. The minimum production value of €700 million (reached during the pandemic period) suggests a trough from which the sector has only partially recovered.

Both exports and imports have fallen, but exports far more steeply

Over the same period, EU extra-EU trade in this product declined across the board:

Export volumes fell by nearly 90%, while import volumes declined by roughly half. The asymmetry is striking: the EU's export capacity in this niche has been hollowed out far more aggressively than its demand for imported fabrics.

Export unit values have surged while import prices have remained subdued

Despite collapsing volumes, EU export prices rose sharply — up 130.9% per tonne (from €13,547 to €31,277/t) and up 153.2% per square metre (from €2.47 to €6.26/m²). Import unit values, by contrast, increased only 21.8% per tonne (from €9,533 to €11,611/t) and 2.5% per m². The widening gap suggests that the EU has retreated from mass-volume production and increasingly occupies a premium niche, exporting smaller quantities of higher-value fabrics (possibly luxury or heritage textiles) while sourcing standard-grade fabrics from third countries, predominantly China.

The EU has swung from a trade surplus to a deficit

In 2015, the EU enjoyed a trade balance surplus of €688,000 in this product. By 2025, this had turned into a deficit of −€1.04 million — a swing of over 250%. While the absolute figures are modest, the direction is clear: the EU has become a net importer in value terms, even as its export prices have climbed.

II. Geographic Reconfiguration: Concentration on China, Emergence of the UK, and Collapse of Mediterranean Flows

The decade saw a pronounced reshaping of the EU's trade geography for CN 5113, with import sourcing becoming more China-centric, the UK emerging as a key partner (likely in the wake of Brexit), and traditional South–North production chains with Mediterranean partners collapsing.

China dominates EU imports but its share has declined in absolute terms

China remained by far the largest supplier to the EU throughout the period, but its position has weakened substantially:

China's share of EU imports remained overwhelming (around 84% in 2025), but the fall from €3.1M to €1.7M reflects both the overall market contraction and potential supply-chain diversification. Meanwhile, Pakistan, Japan, and Egypt have effectively exited as suppliers. The most notable growth story is the United Kingdom, whose exports to the EU surged by 359% — likely reflecting post-Brexit reclassification of intra-EU flows as extra-EU trade rather than genuine market growth.

EU export destinations have contracted sharply, especially in North Africa and the Balkans

The EU's main export markets experienced dramatic declines:

The collapse of exports to Tunisia (−99.3%) and Albania (−86.8%) is particularly noteworthy. These countries have historically served as low-cost assembly platforms for the European textile industry — EU fabrics were shipped there for cut-make-trim operations and then re-exported. The near-total evaporation of these flows suggests a structural shift in supply chains, with production migrating further east (to Asia) or the entire segment declining. Türkiye, itself a significant textile producer, saw its purchases from the EU drop by 91%. Morocco, the most resilient of the Mediterranean partners, still lost a quarter of its EU fabric imports.

Italy anchors both sides of the EU's external trade

Among EU member states, Italy dominates both imports and exports:

Italy's central role reflects its historic strength in luxury textiles (particularly in regions like Biella and Prato). The 86% collapse in Italian exports is the single largest absolute decline. Conversely, Sweden's extraordinary jump from €622 to €251,000 in exports — a 40,000%+ increase — stands out as a remarkable anomaly, potentially reflecting a single specialized producer finding niche export markets. The specialisation data confirms Italy, France, Austria, and Greece as the most specialised EU producers, while large economies like Belgium and Germany show minimal specialisation.

III. Rising Vulnerability and Supply-Chain Fragility

Beyond the volume and geographic shifts, the data reveals structural changes in market concentration and exposure that carry implications for the EU's resilience in this product category.

Export concentration has fallen while import concentration remains high

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for EU exports fell by 56.8% (from 2,265 to 978 by value), indicating that export destinations have become more diversified — though this is partly an artefact of declining volumes spread across many small markets. Import concentration, by contrast, decreased only modestly (−16.3%, from 8,602 to 7,196), remaining at a level that signals heavy reliance on a small number of suppliers — principally China.

Trade intensity and export propensity have both increased substantially

Paradoxically, even as absolute volumes have fallen, the EU's trade intensity (trade as a share of production) rose from 46.8% to 73.7%, and export propensity (exports as a share of production) rose from 42.1% to 70.6%. This reflects the fact that domestic production has shrunk even faster than trade. The remaining EU producers are therefore more exposed to international market dynamics — both competitive pressures and demand shocks — than they were a decade ago.

Several supply chains exhibit high volatility, with notable price shocks detected

The volatility analysis identifies several trade relationships with very high coefficients of variation (CV > 1.0), indicating erratic flows:

• Imports from Pakistan (CV: 1.89), Japan (CV: 1.91), and Türkiye (CV: 1.72) — all essentially collapsed during the period
• Exports to Tunisia (CV: 1.89) and Ukraine (CV: 1.35) — highly volatile, with near-total withdrawal

Detected supply shocks include:

The 2017 Turkish export price shock (a 259% price spike with an extreme abnormality score of 84.5) stands out as the most dramatic event in the dataset, potentially linked to currency depreciation in Türkiye or a sudden supply disruption. China's 2019 import price increase of 36.7% — while less extreme in absolute terms — affected 100% of EU import value in this product, underscoring the vulnerability of concentration on a single supplier.

Net import reliance has worsened markedly

The EU's net import reliance metric shifted from −49.6% to −143.4% over the period. This indicator, which measures the net trade position relative to domestic production, shows that the EU's production base has eroded faster than its trade adjustments, leaving the remaining industry more exposed to external supply and demand dynamics.

Conclusion

The EU market for woven coarse animal hair fabrics (CN 5113) has undergone a decade of pronounced contraction and structural transformation. Domestic production has fallen by 28–44% depending on the measure, export volumes have collapsed by nearly 90%, and the trade balance has swung from surplus to deficit. The geographic landscape has been redrawn: China's dominance in imports has consolidated even as its absolute volumes have declined; Mediterranean export flows (to Tunisia, Albania, and Türkiye) have largely evaporated, suggesting the unwinding of traditional near-shoring chains; and the UK has emerged as a more prominent partner following Brexit. At the same time, EU producers have retreated toward a premium niche, with export unit values more than doubling — a pattern consistent with the survival of high-end Italian and French mills while volume-oriented production has migrated offshore. The rising trade intensity, persistent import concentration on China, and detected price shocks collectively point to a sector where remaining EU players face greater vulnerability despite — or because of — their smaller footprint.