Market evolution: Combed wool yarn (CN 5107) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of EU trade in combed wool yarn (CN 5107) — yarn of combed wool not put up for retail sale — over the period 2015 to 2025. The analysis covers trade flows, partners, and concentration as well as structural market indicators. The decade was characterised by a pronounced contraction of EU production and exports, a partial reshuffling of global supply chains, and a significant erosion of the EU's traditional net-exporter position in this niche textile segment.

1. A Structural Contraction: Declining Production and Shrinking Exports

EU output collapsed by over 80% in volume

The most striking feature of the 2015–2025 period is the dramatic decline in EU production. Output fell from 133,002 tonnes in 2015 to just 24,448 tonnes in 2025 (–81.6% in quantity), while production value dropped from €935.1 million to €524.2 million (–43.9%). The smaller decline in value than in volume signals that average output prices rose — consistent with the move towards higher-value blends and the exit of lower-margin production from the EU.

Export volumes halved while unit values rose

The contraction in production fed directly into export performance. EU exports of combed wool yarn fell from 10,561 tonnes (€193.7 million) in 2015 to 5,261 tonnes (€128.2 million) in 2025 — a decline of 50.2% in volume and 33.8% in value (see General Overview). Despite the volume collapse, export unit values rose by 32.9%, from €18,337/t to €24,363/t, indicating that EU producers increasingly concentrated on premium, higher-margin yarns.

Imports remained broadly stable, compressing the trade surplus

On the import side, volumes held essentially flat at around 7,320–7,349 tonnes over the full period (+0.4%), and values edged down from €105.5 million to €101.6 million (–3.8%). Import unit values declined slightly (–4.1%). The net result was a sharp compression of the EU's trade surplus:

The net import reliance moved from –29.4% to –8.9% (where a negative value indicates net export status), confirming the EU's shift from a strong net exporter towards near balance. Export propensity also declined, falling from 34.3% to 28.9% (–15.6%), while trade intensity remained stable at around 41%.

2. A Shifting Geography of Trade Partners and Emerging Volatility

Traditional partners weakened; new Asian suppliers surged

The decade saw a notable reshuffling among the EU's main import partners. Several long-standing suppliers declined sharply:

India nearly doubled its exports to the EU, overtaking China to become the largest single supplier by 2025. Vietnam emerged from near-zero to over €10 million — an extraordinary ramp-up reflecting the broader relocation of textile processing in Asia. Türkiye also increased modestly (+18.6% to €3.8M). On the export side, the United Kingdom (–61.0% to €14.2M) and Hong Kong (–79.4% to €9.4M) recorded steep declines, while Türkiye remained the top destination (€29.1M → €33.0M, +13.3%) and Norway grew significantly (+73.2% to €11.4M).

Supply concentration fluctuated but remained moderate

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for import value declined from 2,120 to 1,951 (–8.0%), signalling a moderate de-concentration of supply sources. Export-side concentration also fell (1,319 → 1,142, –13.4%). While these levels indicate a relatively fragmented market, the volatility analysis reveals that several partner relationships are highly erratic. Import flows from Egypt (CV 1.47), Indonesia (CV 1.76), and Vietnam (CV 0.92) showed extreme year-to-year swings; on the export side, Hong Kong (CV 0.59) and the Russian Federation (CV 0.57) were the most volatile.

Specific price shocks affected key bilateral flows

The shock detection identified three notable events:

• India, 2020 (imports): An abnormal price drop of –22.8% (abnormality score 16.1), coinciding with the COVID-19 pandemic. India's share of EU import value was 23.4% at that time.
• Tunisia, 2017 (exports): A price increase of +30.1% (abnormality 10.7), representing 4.3% of export value.
• Norway, 2023 (exports): A price rise of +14.4% (abnormality 6.6), representing 8.6% of export value.

These episodes underscore that even in a relatively small market, individual bilateral flows can exhibit sharp deviations, particularly during periods of macroeconomic disruption.

3. A Two-Speed Europe: Specialised Producers versus Declining Hubs

Italy remained the dominant EU actor, but with eroding export strength

The reporter-level data confirms Italy's centrality in EU combed wool yarn trade. Italy accounted for €55.6 million in imports (+11.0%) and €77.9 million in exports (–30.4%) in 2025. Its revealed symmetric comparative advantage (RSCA of 0.49) places it among the most specialised EU producers, alongside Bulgaria (0.91), Romania (0.80), and Czechia (0.51). These countries retain meaningful domestic capacity in this niche.

Several large member states saw their combed wool yarn sectors collapse

At the other end of the spectrum, Austria's exports fell from €8.7 million to just €24,603 (–99.7%), essentially exiting the market. Germany's exports declined from €48.0M to €29.8M (–37.8%), and its imports fell from €20.8M to €6.4M (–69.3%). Bulgaria and Poland also suffered steep export declines (–67.6% and –83.1% respectively). These losses partly reflect consolidation: surviving producers in Italy and smaller Central European economies absorbed market share from withdrawing incumbents.

The segment breakdown reveals a premiumisation in the high-wool content tier

The product-level data separates CN 510710 (≥85% wool) from CN 510720 (<85% wool). Both segments declined in export volume, but the price dynamics diverged:

The high-wool-content segment (510710) continued to account for roughly three-quarters of export volume, but the mixed-wool segment (510720) saw a more dramatic unit price increase, potentially reflecting rising raw material costs or a shift towards specialised blends. On the import side, 510710 volumes fluctuated but ended roughly flat, while 510720 imports declined from 1,396 tonnes to 1,011 tonnes.

Conclusion

The EU market for combed wool yarn underwent a profound structural transformation between 2015 and 2025. Domestic production contracted by over 80% in volume, dragging export quantities down by half and converting the EU from a strong net exporter (balance of €88 million) into a near-balanced trader (€27 million surplus). Imports held steady in volume but saw significant shifts in origin: India doubled its share, Vietnam emerged from nothing, and traditional suppliers like Thailand and Peru receded. The geographic concentration of EU production narrowed further, with Italy and a handful of Central and Eastern European economies accounting for an increasing share of surviving capacity, while larger producers like Germany and Austria saw their roles diminish dramatically. Unit values rose across the board, pointing to a market that is smaller in physical terms but increasingly oriented towards premium and specialised yarns. The combination of high bilateral volatility, declining export propensity, and eroding net-export status suggests that the EU's competitive position in combed wool yarn has structurally weakened over the decade, even as remaining production has moved upmarket.