Market evolution: Women's clothing (CN 6204) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyses the evolution of EU trade in women's and girls' woven garments under CN 6204 from 2015 to 2025. The product heading covers a wide range of non-knitted items including suits, dresses, skirts, trousers, and blazers. Over this decade, the EU market underwent a profound structural transformation: domestic production collapsed, import dependency surged dramatically, and the sourcing landscape shifted from Chinese dominance toward a more diversified base of low-cost Asian and nearshore suppliers. Meanwhile, EU exports transitioned toward higher unit values, signalling a repositioning of the bloc's remaining capacity toward premium segments.

I. The Industrial Hollowing-Out of EU Garment Production

Domestic output fell by two-thirds in volume and nearly half in value

The most striking feature of the 2015–2025 period is the severe contraction of EU domestic production. Production in supplementary units (number of items) fell from 492 million pieces in 2015 to just 165 million in 2025 — a decline of 66.5%. Production value dropped from €6.16 billion to €3.49 billion (−43.4%). The fact that value declined less steeply than volume indicates that EU manufacturers increasingly concentrated on higher-value items, but this shift was insufficient to offset the dramatic loss of manufacturing scale.

The trade deficit widened by nearly half

As local production shrank, the EU's trade balance in CN 6204 deteriorated significantly. The deficit grew from −€4.32 billion in 2015 to −€6.44 billion in 2025, a 48.8% widening. Over the same period, net import reliance surged from 10.9% to 62.4%, meaning the EU now depends on non-EU sources for nearly two-thirds of its domestic consumption of these garments — up from roughly one-tenth a decade earlier.

The EU's export propensity exploded, but from a small base

Export propensity — the ratio of exports to domestic production — rose from 4.2% to 177.9%. This dramatic figure reflects not a surge in export volumes (which actually fell by 12.6% in supplementary units) but the collapse of the domestic production denominator. The EU now exports more items than it produces domestically, a hallmark of a re-export and finishing hub model rather than a full-cycle manufacturing base.

II. Diversification of the Import Supply Base

China remained the largest supplier but lost relative ground

Chinese imports into the EU grew modestly from €2.83 billion to €3.06 billion (+7.8%). While China retained its position as the top supplier, its share of total EU imports declined as other origins grew much faster. The import concentration index (HHI) fell from 1,515 to 1,227 (−19.0%), confirming a meaningful diversification away from single-source dependency.

Bangladesh and Cambodia emerged as major winners

The most dynamic growth came from South and Southeast Asian suppliers:

Cambodia's growth is particularly striking: EU imports from the country nearly quadrupled, making it a top-tier supplier by 2025. Bangladesh, already a significant player in 2015, nearly doubled its shipments. These shifts reflect the broader trend of garment manufacturing migrating from China to lower-cost Asian economies, driven by labour cost differentials and preferential trade arrangements such as the EU's Everything But Arms (EBA) initiative.

Nearshore sourcing also expanded

Türkiye (+32.2% to €1.50B) and Morocco (+49.1% to €920M) also gained ground as nearshore suppliers. Proximity to EU markets offers faster lead times, which has become increasingly important for fast-fashion and just-in-time retail models. These two countries combine geographic advantage with established textile industrial bases and preferential market access.

III. The EU's Transition to a Premium Export Profile

Export values grew despite falling volumes

EU exports in value terms rose from €4.60 billion to €6.04 billion (+31.3%), yet the number of items exported declined from 188 million to 164 million (−12.6%). This divergence implies a sharp increase in the average unit value of EU exports, rising from €24.50 per item to €36.82 (+50.3%). By contrast, the average import price per item was only €9.19 in 2025, meaning EU exports commanded roughly four times the unit value of imports — clear evidence of specialisation in premium and luxury segments.

The United States became the EU's fastest-growing major export market

The United States emerged as the most dynamic destination for EU exports, growing from €464 million to €987 million (+112.7%). Switzerland also expanded strongly (+70.1% to €909M). Both are wealthy markets with strong demand for European fashion brands. Meanwhile, exports to Russia nearly halved (−46.1% to €247M), reflecting the impact of sanctions following 2022. Exports to the United Kingdom — historically the largest EU export market for this product — also declined (−18.1%), likely influenced by post-Brexit trade frictions.

Italy and France anchored the EU's export specialisation

Among EU Member States, Italy remained the largest exporter (€1.96B in 2025, +18.5%) and showed a high revealed comparative advantage (RCA of 1.50). France saw exports nearly double (+97.8% to €1.09B), and Germany also expanded strongly (+82.4% to €1.01B). In contrast, Spain saw exports fall by a third (−33.2%), and Romania — once a significant nearshore production base — experienced a 61.8% decline, suggesting a loss of competitiveness in lower-value segments.

Conclusion

The decade 2015–2025 saw the EU women's woven garment market undergo a fundamental restructuring. Domestic production collapsed by two-thirds in volume, while imports surged to fill the gap — growing by 39.8% in value and 38.8% in weight. The EU's net import reliance leapt from under 11% to over 62%, underscoring a near-total dependence on external suppliers for everyday clothing. Simultaneously, the import supply base diversified meaningfully: while China remained the largest single origin, fast-growing suppliers such as Cambodia (+268%), Pakistan (+90%), and Bangladesh (+79%) captured an increasing share. On the export side, the EU pivoted toward higher unit-value shipments — averaging €36.82 per item versus €9.19 for imports — targeting premium markets in the United States, Switzerland, and the Gulf. Price shocks in 2022–2023, notably in Indian and Bangladeshi supply chains, introduced volatility but did not reverse the structural trends. The EU's role in this market has shifted from manufacturer to brand-and-finish hub: it designs, brands, and exports high-value garments while relying on the rest of the world for volume production.