Market evolution: Men's and boys' outerwear (CN 6201) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of EU trade in men's and boys' overcoats, anoraks, windcheaters and similar non-knitted outerwear (Combined Nomenclature code 6201) over the period 2015–2025. The product category encompasses a wide range of garments — from wool overcoats to synthetic ski jackets — and is a significant segment within EU apparel trade. Drawing on trade flow data, partner concentration metrics, and vulnerability indicators, the analysis identifies three principal dynamics: a structural shift in the EU's sourcing geography, a divergence between value and volume trajectories on the export side, and a gradual reduction in the EU's import dependence.

1. A Trade Balance Shaped by Soaring Export Values and Steady Import Growth

The EU's overall trade position in CN 6201 underwent a meaningful transformation between 2015 and 2025. While the bloc remained a net importer throughout the period, the trade deficit narrowed substantially, from €−1,490 million in 2015 to €−1,175 million in 2025 — an improvement of 21.1%.

1.1 Import values grew modestly while export values nearly doubled

The headline figures reveal an asymmetry in growth dynamics. EU imports rose from €2,476 million to €3,144 million (+27.0%), while exports surged from €986 million to €1,970 million (+99.7%). This divergence — exports growing roughly four times faster than imports in value terms — is the single most important driver of the narrowing deficit.

Source: General Overview — Trade

1.2 Export prices doubled while import prices remained flat

The critical insight is that export and import price dynamics diverged sharply. EU export prices (per tonne) rose from €72,735 to €149,911 (+106.1%), while import prices remained essentially unchanged at €23,236/t in 2015 versus €23,232/t in 2025 (−0.0%). Meanwhile, export volumes in tonnes barely moved (−3.1%), meaning the near-doubling of export value was almost entirely driven by higher unit prices rather than greater physical output.

Source: General Overview — Trade

This pattern suggests that the EU has been moving up the value chain in this product category: exporting roughly the same physical quantity but at significantly higher prices — consistent with a shift toward premium-positioned goods — while importing steadily growing volumes at stable, low-cost prices.

1.3 Net import reliance declined materially

The EU's net import reliance fell from 84.3% in 2015 to 66.6% in 2025 — a decline of 21.0 percentage points. This indicates that a growing share of domestic demand is being met by EU production and exports rather than imports. EU production value rose from €413 million to €500 million (+21.1%), even as production volume declined from 12,300 tonnes to 9,000 tonnes (−26.8%), mirroring the same value-over-volume dynamic seen in exports and pointing to an industry focused on higher-margin production.

2. A Fundamental Restructuring of the EU's Import Sourcing Geography

Perhaps the most striking development in CN 6201 trade over the decade is the dramatic reshuffling of the EU's import partners. The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for import concentration fell from 3,999 to 2,196 (−45.1%), indicating a significant diversification away from a single dominant supplier toward a more distributed sourcing base.

2.1 China's dominance eroded as Southeast Asia surged

China remained the largest single supplier of CN 6201 to the EU in 2025, accounting for €1,321 million. However, this represented a decline of 13.1% from its 2015 level of €1,520 million. In contrast, several Southeast Asian suppliers recorded extraordinary growth over the same period:

Source: Top Partners by Value — Imports

Cambodia's growth of 877.2% is particularly remarkable, rising from a marginal supplier (€15 million) to a substantial one (€148 million). Bangladesh more than tripled its exports to the EU, and Myanmar grew fivefold. Together, Bangladesh, Vietnam, Myanmar and Cambodia supplied €1,169 million in 2025 — collectively approaching China's level and representing a major reorientation of sourcing toward the ASEAN region and South Asia.

2.2 The UK's share collapsed following Brexit

The United Kingdom, a historically significant supplier, saw its exports to the EU fall from €137 million to €50 million (−63.3%). This steep decline coincides with the UK's departure from the EU Single Market and Customs Union, which introduced customs formalations, rules-of-origin requirements and potential tariff barriers for goods crossing the Channel. The volatility coefficient for UK imports was notably high (0.70), reflecting the disruptive impact of this transition.

2.3 Diversification was more modest on the export side

EU export destinations also shifted, but less dramatically. The United Kingdom remained the largest single export market despite declining from €301 million to €221 million (−26.4%). Notable growth destinations included:

Source: Top Partners by Value — Exports

China's emergence as the third-largest export destination — growing from €58 million to €359 million (+516.2%) — is a noteworthy reversal: the EU simultaneously buys less from China and sells far more to it, suggesting that Chinese demand for European-branded premium outerwear has expanded considerably.

3. Italy's Industrial Dominance and the Man-Made Fibre Segment

Behind the aggregate EU figures lies a more granular story about which member states drive trade and which product sub-segments dominate. The data reveals a highly concentrated production and export base, anchored by Italy, and a product mix increasingly dominated by man-made fibres.

3.1 Italy emerged as the EU's undisputed export powerhouse

Italian exports of CN 6201 grew from €444 million to €1,182 million (+166.2%), meaning Italy alone accounted for approximately 60% of all EU extra-EU exports in this category by 2025. Italy also leads in specialisation, with a Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA) of 0.39 — the third-highest among EU members — and an 18.4% share of EU production in this product.

Other member states showed varied trajectories:

Source: Top Reporters by Value — Exports

Poland's +383.8% growth — from a small base of €16 million to €76 million — and its high specialisation score (RSCA 0.20) suggest the emergence of a Central European production cluster for this product category. France also tripled its exports, consistent with the broader trend of Western European brands leveraging higher-value positioning in global markets.

3.2 Man-made fibres dominate both imports and exports by volume

The product segment breakdown for 2022–2025 shows that goods of man-made fibres (CN 620140) overwhelmingly dominate both sides of the trade ledger. In 2025, this sub-segment accounted for:

Source: Product Segment Breakdown

On the export side, the distribution is more balanced, with wool/fine animal hair (620120) commanding significantly higher prices. In 2025, the price per tonne of exported wool outerwear stood at €325,890/t — nearly 2.4 times the €134,589/t fetched by man-made fibre goods. This reflects Italy and France's strength in luxury and premium wool overcoats, a segment where European brands maintain strong global positioning.

3.3 Export pricing power strengthened across all segments

Across all four sub-segments, export prices rose substantially between 2022 and 2025, confirming that the EU's price premium widened over the period:

Source: Product Segment Breakdown

Cotton outerwear saw the most dramatic price appreciation (+99.6%), suggesting either a shift toward higher-value cotton products in EU export baskets or broader cost pass-through effects. Import prices, by contrast, remained relatively stable or even declined within sub-segments, reinforcing the growing gap between the EU's export positioning (premium, high-price) and its import sourcing (mass-market, low-price).

Conclusion

Over the 2015–2025 period, the EU's trade in men's and boys' outerwear (CN 6201) evolved along three interlocking trajectories. First, the trade deficit narrowed by 21% as export values nearly doubled — driven overwhelmingly by rising prices rather than growing volumes — while imports grew more moderately at stable price levels. This points to a successful repositioning of EU production toward higher-value segments. Second, the EU's import sourcing geography underwent a fundamental restructuring: China's share declined, while Bangladesh, Myanmar, Cambodia and Vietnam collectively emerged as major suppliers, and the UK's role diminished sharply following Brexit. Import concentration fell by 45%, reflecting deliberate diversification. Third, Italy consolidated its position as the EU's dominant exporter in this category, while Poland emerged as a significant new production base, and the man-made fibre sub-segment continued to anchor the bulk of import volumes at mass-market price points.

Looking ahead, the structural tensions visible in the data — between growing import dependence on Asian supply chains and the EU's strategic interest in resilience, between premium export positioning and mass-market import realities, and between established Western European producers and rising Central European competitors — will likely continue to shape the evolution of this market.