Market evolution: Womens outerwear (CN 6202) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyses the evolution of EU trade in women's or girls' outerwear (Customs code 6202) over the period 2015–2025. The product category encompasses overcoats, car coats, capes, cloaks, anoraks, ski jackets, windcheaters, wind-jackets and similar articles, excluding knitted or crocheted items, suits, ensembles, jackets, blazers and trousers. The data covers trade flows between the EU and non-EU countries, providing a comprehensive view of the EU's external trade position in this segment.

The period under review has been marked by substantial structural shifts. EU exports more than doubled in value, while import growth remained comparatively modest. A clear diversification away from Chinese suppliers towards South-East Asian producers reshaped the sourcing landscape. Meanwhile, Brexit disrupted UK trade flows and the EU's internal production base remained broadly flat. This report is organised around three central themes: the overall trade trajectory, the geographic reconfiguration of supply chains, and the EU's evolving export competitiveness.

1. A Narrowing Deficit: The EU's Trade Balance Improves on the Back of Strong Export Growth

The decade 2015–2025 saw EU trade in CN 6202 evolve in fundamentally different ways for imports and exports. While imports grew moderately, exports surged, significantly narrowing the EU's structural trade deficit in this product category.

1.1 EU exports more than doubled in value while import growth remained subdued

Source: General Overview

EU export values grew by 114.0% over the period, reaching EUR 2.82 billion in 2025 — nearly matching the peak of EUR 2.84 billion observed in 2024. By contrast, import values rose by a more modest 19.1% over the same period. The trade deficit narrowed from EUR −2.21 billion in 2015 to EUR −1.38 billion in 2025, a cumulative improvement of 37.4%.

1.2 Export growth was driven by both volume increases and significant unit-price appreciation

Source: General Overview

The divergence in pricing dynamics is striking. EU export prices rose by 52.4% (per tonne) and 55.0% (per piece), suggesting a shift towards higher-value-added products. Meanwhile, import prices remained essentially flat (−0.9% per tonne), indicating persistent cost pressure from low-cost sourcing regions. Export volumes in supplementary units grew by 38.1%, confirming that the EU shipped more pieces at higher prices — a hallmark of upmarket positioning.

1.3 EU domestic production stagnated, making exports increasingly reliant on reprocessing and re-export dynamics

Source: Market Structure — production volumes

EU production was broadly stagnant over the period. This means the remarkable growth in exports was not driven by expanding domestic manufacturing capacity. Rather, it likely reflects a combination of intra-EU assembly from imported inputs, re-export of higher-value finished goods sourced from non-EU producers, and a shift in the product mix towards premium items carrying higher unit values. The net import reliance declined from 81.5% to 67.4%, suggesting the EU became somewhat less dependent on external supply, but the share remains substantial.

2. A Sourcing Revolution: From China-Centric Imports to Diversified South-East Asian Supply Chains

The most dramatic structural transformation during this decade occurred on the import side, where a clear shift away from Chinese dominance towards a cluster of South-East Asian suppliers reshaped the EU's sourcing architecture.

2.1 China's share of EU imports fell sharply, while Bangladesh, Myanmar and Cambodia surged

Source: Top partners

China remained the largest single supplier in 2025, but its import value fell from EUR 2.40 billion to EUR 2.00 billion (−16.6%). Meanwhile, the three fastest-growing suppliers — Myanmar (+670.2%), Bangladesh (+206.2%) and Cambodia (+1,954.1%) — collectively grew from EUR 195 million to EUR 1.01 billion. Viet Nam also continued its steady expansion (+59.7%). This pattern is consistent with the broader "China+1" strategy adopted by global fashion brands and the EU's Generalised Scheme of Preferences (GSP) favouring least-developed countries.

2.2 The UK's role as a supplier collapsed post-Brexit, contributing to import volatility

Source: Volatility bars

The United Kingdom exhibited one of the highest volatility coefficients (0.733) among EU import partners for CN 6202. Its imports from the UK fell by 55.8% over the period, reflecting the disruptive impact of Brexit on trade flows in both directions. The application of customs formalities, rules-of-origin requirements and the end of frictionless trade fundamentally altered the UK's role as a sourcing location for EU outerwear.

2.3 Import concentration fell dramatically, reflecting genuine diversification

Source: Concentration

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index for EU imports fell by 45.1% (by value), indicating a substantial reduction in supplier concentration. In 2015, China alone accounted for approximately 68% of total import value; by 2025, this share had dropped to roughly 48%, with the remainder distributed among a broader set of Asian and Mediterranean suppliers. This diversification reduces the EU's single-country supply risk, though it does not eliminate aggregate dependence on Asian manufacturing clusters.

2.4 Supply-side volatility remained elevated for emerging partners

Source: Volatility bars

The fastest-growing suppliers also exhibited the highest volatility. Cambodia's coefficient of variation stood at 0.902 — the highest among all import partners — reflecting the rapid but uneven trajectory of its export growth. A notable price shock was detected for Bangladesh in 2022, with an abnormality score of 11.7 and a unit-price shift of +28.2%, likely linked to post-pandemic cost inflation in the garment sector. By contrast, China and India — the most mature suppliers — showed the lowest volatility, underscoring their continued reliability despite declining market share.

3. The EU as an Upmarket Exporter: Specialisation, Premium Pricing and Geographic Reach

While the import story is one of sourcing diversification, the export story is one of value creation. The EU consolidated its position as a supplier of premium outerwear, with certain Member States exhibiting pronounced specialisation.

3.1 Italy emerged as the EU's dominant exporter, followed by Germany and France

Source: Top reporters

Italy's export growth of 136.6% to EUR 1.41 billion cemented its position as the EU's leading exporter of women's outerwear. France saw the largest proportional growth (+280.3%), reaching EUR 414 million and surpassing Spain. Poland's exports grew by 600.9%, reflecting the country's rapid development as a manufacturing and re-export hub for the European fashion industry.

3.2 Several Member States demonstrated strong export specialisation in this product category

Source: Specialisation

The Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA) index in 2025 shows that Denmark, Poland, Spain, Italy and Romania all exhibited a clear comparative advantage in CN 6202 exports (RCA > 1). Italy's 15.4% share of its total merchandise exports allocated to this single product line underlines the centrality of the fashion sector to Italy's export profile. The least specialised Member States — Malta (RSCA −0.938), Ireland (RSCA −0.907) and Hungary (RSCA −0.771) — played a negligible role in this category.

3.3 Export destinations diversified, with Switzerland and the United States becoming key growth markets

Source: Top partners — exports

Switzerland overtook the United Kingdom as the EU's second-largest export market for this category, with exports rising by 172.0% to EUR 442 million — likely reflecting both genuine demand growth and Switzerland's role as a logistics hub for re-export to the Middle East and beyond. The United States grew by 93.6% to EUR 321 million, while the UK — traditionally the largest single market — declined by 11.7% to EUR 312 million, again reflecting post-Brexit trade friction. The export concentration index (HHI) fell by 23.8%, confirming that EU exporters spread their sales more broadly across destination markets.

3.4 Premium product segments — wool and cotton — drove export value growth

Source: Product segment breakdown

In value terms, exports of man-made fibre outerwear (620240) remained the largest segment at EUR 1.52 billion, but the fastest growth came from wool/fine animal hair products (+15.4%) and cotton (+19.6%). Notably, the per-piece export price for wool products stood at EUR 308.31 in 2025 — nearly four times the price of man-made fibre items — confirming the EU's orientation towards premium, natural-fibre outerwear. On the import side, man-made fibres overwhelmingly dominated (EUR 3.29 billion, 78% of total imports), with a per-piece price of only EUR 15.73, highlighting the sharp asymmetry between the EU's low-cost imports and its high-value exports.

Conclusion

The EU trade in women's outerwear (CN 6202) over 2015–2025 tells a story of two complementary transformations. On the import side, the EU diversified its sourcing away from China towards a broader cluster of South-East Asian suppliers, significantly reducing single-country concentration risk while maintaining strong cost competitiveness. On the export side, EU producers — led by Italy, France, Germany and an increasingly specialised Poland — doubled their export values by moving upmarket, commanding premium prices especially in natural-fibre segments.

The trade deficit narrowed substantially, from EUR −2.21 billion to EUR −1.38 billion, but the EU remained a net importer with 67.4% import reliance in 2025. Domestic production was essentially flat, meaning export growth was fuelled by value-chain positioning rather than manufacturing expansion. The post-Brexit disruption of UK trade flows — visible on both the import and export sides — was one of the most significant structural breaks of the period.

Looking ahead, the data suggests continued vulnerability to supply-chain shocks in emerging sourcing countries, where volatility remains elevated. At the same time, the EU's export competitiveness appears well-anchored in its ability to deliver premium products at scale — a position that, if sustained, should continue to narrow the structural deficit in the years ahead.