Market evolution: Men's shirts (CN 6205) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of EU trade in men's or boys' shirts (excluding knitted or crocheted, nightshirts, singlets, and other vests) classified under CN code 6205 over the period 2015–2025. The product heading encompasses three sub-segments: cotton shirts (620520), man-made fibre shirts (620530), and shirts of other textile materials (620590). Over the decade under review, the EU market for these products underwent a profound structural transformation characterized by the near-collapse of domestic production, a dramatic increase in import dependence, a geographic reorientation of sourcing toward South and Southeast Asia, and a marked shift in the EU's export profile toward higher-value, lower-volume shipments.

1. The Hollowing-Out of European Production and the Surge in Import Dependence

EU production experienced a dramatic collapse

The most striking structural development in the CN 6205 market over the past decade is the near-disappearance of EU domestic manufacturing. Production in supplementary units (number of items) fell from 135,652,774 pieces in 2015 to just 29,501,915 pieces in 2025 — a decline of 78.3%. In value terms, production fell from €1.51 billion to €645 million, a contraction of 57.2%. The production floor — approximately 28.4 million items — was reached around 2020–2021, coinciding with the COVID-19 pandemic, after which output recovered only modestly.

Import reliance shifted from modest to dominant

As domestic production contracted, the EU's net import reliance surged from 14.0% in 2015 to 66.9% in 2025 — a near fivefold increase. This metric peaked at 70.9% around 2020, when the pandemic sharply depressed both production and exports while imports proved more resilient. The trend confirms that the EU has transitioned from a partially self-sufficient market to one overwhelmingly dependent on extra-EU supply.

Import volumes declined but values proved more resilient

Despite rising import reliance in relative terms, absolute import volumes contracted over the period. In tonnage terms, imports fell from 104,360 tonnes to 80,203 tonnes (−23.1%), while in item counts they dropped from 357.2 million to 269.1 million (−24.7%). However, import values declined more moderately, from €2.56 billion to €2.28 billion (−10.8%), because unit prices rose. The average import price per tonne increased from €24,537 to €28,469 (+16.0%), and the per-item price rose from €7.17 to €8.47 (+18.1%). This price inflation reflects both genuine cost increases (raw materials, energy, logistics) and a compositional shift toward higher-value segments.

EU production specialisation remained concentrated in southern and peripheral members

In 2025, the most specialised EU producers of CN 6205 were Denmark (RSCA: 0.566), Romania (0.335), Portugal (0.294), Italy (0.262), and Spain (0.188). These countries accounted for the bulk of the remaining productive capacity. By contrast, countries such as Ireland, Malta, Finland, Luxembourg, and Hungary showed negligible specialisation in this product category.

2. Geographic Reconfiguration of Supply Chains: Bangladesh Rises, China Declines, and the UK Reconfigures

Bangladesh consolidated its position as the EU's dominant supplier

The most significant shift in the EU's import geography was the rise of Bangladesh from the largest to the overwhelmingly dominant supplier. Over the period, Bangladesh's share grew from €651 million to €781 million in import value (+19.9%), even as total import values contracted. By 2025, Bangladesh supplied roughly 34% of all extra-EU imports by value, up from 25% a decade earlier. Bangladesh's import flows also exhibited notably low volatility (coefficient of variation of 0.13), suggesting a stable, entrenched supplier relationship.

China's share eroded significantly

China, which was the second-largest supplier in 2015 at €464 million, saw its imports fall to €312 million by 2025 — a decline of 32.8%. This reflects a broader trend of sourcing diversification away from China, driven by rising Chinese labour costs, geopolitical considerations, and preferential trade arrangements (such as the EU's Everything But Arms initiative) favouring competitors in South Asia. China's import volatility (CV: 0.24) was higher than Bangladesh's, indicating more pronounced year-to-year swings.

India and Türkiye followed divergent paths

India's imports grew modestly from €245 million to €261 million (+6.4%), consolidating its position as the third-largest supplier. Türkiye, by contrast, saw a substantial decline from €322 million to €233 million (−27.6%), partly reflecting macroeconomic instability in Türkiye and competitive pressures from Asian suppliers. Viet Nam remained relatively stable at around €159–160 million. Myanmar, while still a smaller supplier (€59 million), grew from €57 million and exhibited a price shock in 2022, when its unit price abnormality reached 102.1 with a 29.6% shift — likely linked to post-coup political instability and supply disruptions.

The UK's trade reconfigured sharply after Brexit

The most dramatic bilateral shift occurred with the United Kingdom. As an import source, UK shipments to the EU collapsed from €131 million to €30 million (−77.1%), with a volatility coefficient of 0.83 — the highest among all major import partners. This reflects both the end of frictionless trade post-Brexit and a restructuring of UK–EU apparel supply chains. Similarly, EU exports to the UK fell from €227 million to €124 million (−45.4%), though the UK remained the EU's largest export destination by value.

Import concentration increased while export concentration declined

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for imports rose from 1,331 to 1,694 (+27.3%), indicating a more concentrated supplier base — driven largely by Bangladesh's growing dominance. For exports, the HHI fell from 1,033 to 801 (−22.5%), suggesting that EU exporters diversified their destination markets over the same period.

EU member-state trade patterns reflected broader structural shifts

Among EU importers, Germany remained the largest at €544 million in 2025 but contracted by 28.1% from its 2015 level of €757 million. The Netherlands was the only major importer to grow (+11.3%, reaching €328 million), likely reflecting its role as a logistics hub. Among EU exporters, Italy maintained dominance (€327 million, +2.2%), while France emerged as a surprising growth story (+106.7%, from €80 million to €165 million). Spain's exports, by contrast, halved from €174 million to €78 million (−55.1%).

3. Export Value Resilience Masked a Fundamental Shift Toward Higher-Value, Lower-Volume Shipments

Export values remained broadly stable while volumes collapsed

At first glance, EU exports of CN 6205 appear resilient: total export value edged up from €908 million to €935 million (+2.9%) over the decade. However, this headline figure conceals a dramatic volume contraction. Export tonnage fell from 13,000 tonnes to 8,222 tonnes (−36.7%), and item counts dropped from 45.4 million to 27.5 million pieces (−39.6%). The average export price per tonne surged from €69,883 to €113,655 (+62.6%), and the per-item price rose from €19.98 to €34.02 (+70.2%). This price-volume divergence indicates that the EU shifted decisively toward exporting fewer but more expensive shirts — consistent with a move upmarket into premium and luxury segments.

The cotton segment dominated imports, but other materials grew fastest in exports

Breaking down the product segments, cotton shirts (620520) remained the dominant import category, accounting for approximately 72% of import value in 2025 (€1.65 billion). However, cotton import volumes fell from 90,495 tonnes to 59,223 tonnes (−34.6%), while other textile materials (620590) more than doubled in volume from 2,939 to 8,294 tonnes and nearly quadrupled in value from €90 million to €333 million — growing at 269.4% over the period. This suggests a premiumisation of imports in niche material categories.

Export price trajectories diverged sharply across segments

The most dramatic price increases in exports occurred in the other textile materials segment (620590), where the per-item price rose from €22.59 to €53.46 (+136.7%). Cotton shirt export prices also climbed significantly, from €20.46 to €31.94 per piece (+56.1%). Man-made fibre shirts (620530) saw the most volatile trajectory, with prices rising from €9.41 to €23.22 per piece (+146.7%). These segment-level price dynamics reinforce the narrative that EU exports are increasingly positioned at the higher end of the value chain.

The trade deficit narrowed despite structural import dependence

The EU's trade deficit in CN 6205 improved from −€1.65 billion in 2015 to −€1.35 billion in 2025, an improvement of 18.4%. The deficit narrowed to its smallest point (−€827 million) around 2020, when the pandemic compressed both sides of the ledger but exports proved more resilient. This improvement in the balance, despite surging import reliance, is entirely attributable to the upward repricing of EU exports: the EU is buying slightly less by volume but selling substantially more per unit.

Select supply shocks highlighted fragilities in the sourcing network

The volatility analysis identified several notable supply-side shocks. Myanmar's import price experienced the most extreme abnormality (102.1) in 2022, with a 29.6% upward shift, coinciding with post-coup instability. On the export side, price shocks were detected for shipments to Canada (abnormality: 49.3, shift: +55.7%) and Mexico (abnormality: 24.8, shift: +115.0%) in 2023. While these shocks involved relatively small market shares (2.9–3.0% of export value), they point to pricing volatility in non-traditional export markets.

Conclusion

The EU market for men's shirts (CN 6205) underwent a fundamental transformation between 2015 and 2025. Domestic production collapsed by roughly 78% in volume, converting the EU from a partially self-sufficient producer into a market where nearly two-thirds of consumption is import-dependent. This structural shift was accompanied by a geographic reconfiguration of supply chains: Bangladesh consolidated its dominance, China's share declined significantly, and the UK–EU trade relationship was profoundly disrupted by Brexit. On the export side, the EU successfully pivoted toward a higher-value, lower-volume model, with unit prices rising by 60–70% even as shipment volumes fell sharply. The net result was a modest narrowing of the trade deficit, entirely driven by pricing power rather than volume growth. Looking ahead, the key vulnerabilities for the EU lie in its concentrated supplier base (rising import HHI) and its deepening reliance on a small number of extra-EU producers, while its competitive advantage increasingly rests on premium positioning rather than scale.