Market evolution: Man-made fibre shirts (CN 620530) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of EU trade in men's or boys' shirts of man-made fibres (customs code CN 620530) over the period 2015–2025. The product category covers woven (non-knitted) shirts made from synthetic or artificial fibres, excluding nightshirts and singlets. Over the past decade, the EU's position in this market has undergone a profound transformation: domestic production has collapsed, import dependency has deepened sharply, and the bloc's sourcing geography has diversified considerably. At the same time, unit values have risen significantly on both import and export sides, suggesting a structural shift towards higher-value product segments. The analysis draws on trade flows with non-EU countries, EU-level production data, concentration indices, and specialisation metrics to paint a comprehensive picture of these dynamics.

1. Domestic production collapse and the deepening of EU import dependence

The most striking feature of the decade is the dramatic contraction of EU-based manufacturing, which has triggered a structural shift from self-sufficiency to heavy reliance on third-country suppliers.

EU production of man-made fibre shirts has fallen by over three-quarters

EU production data reveals a severe decline in domestic output of this product category. In terms of production volumes, the number of pieces manufactured within the EU fell from 135,652,774 units to just 29,501,915 units — a contraction of 78.3% over the period. The decline in value was also severe: EU production value dropped from €1.505 billion to €644.9 million (−57.2%). This pattern is consistent with the broader offshoring trend in European textile and apparel manufacturing, as cost pressures and globalisation have shifted capacity to lower-wage countries.

Import values have nearly doubled despite only modest volume gains

In stark contrast to the decline in domestic output, imports from non-EU countries have grown substantially. Import values rose from €170.3 million to €302.5 million, an increase of 77.6%. However, the growth in physical volume was far more modest: imported quantities (net mass) grew from 10,926 tonnes to 12,685 tonnes (+16.1%), while the number of imported pieces rose from 38.4 million to 42.9 million (+11.7%). The wide gap between value growth and volume growth points to a significant increase in unit import prices (discussed further in Section 3).

Net import reliance has surged to nearly 67%

The combined effect of collapsing production and growing imports is captured by the net import reliance indicator, which measures the share of domestic consumption supplied by imports. This share rose from just 14.0% in 2015 to 66.9% in 2025, a 378.5% increase. The EU trade deficit in this product widened from −€146.9 million to −€216.3 million (−47.2%), confirming the deepening structural dependency. Notably, the peak net import reliance reached 70.9%, highlighting the extent to which the EU now depends on external suppliers for this everyday apparel product.

The EU's export propensity has surged as production relocated

A striking related dynamic is the explosion in export propensity, which measures exports as a share of domestic production. This metric rose from 3.1% to 148.5% (+4,724%). This counterintuitive result — the EU exporting more than it produces domestically — is explained by the collapse in domestic production: as output shrank, exports (which rose in value terms from €23.4 million to €86.2 million) came to exceed the remaining production base. This likely reflects the fact that EU-based firms increasingly operate as re-exporters and distributors, importing finished goods and re-exporting them to neighbouring markets such as the UK and Switzerland.

2. A diversifying supply base: new sourcing geographies and market destinations

Over the decade, both the import and export sides of this trade have seen significant geographic reorientation, with traditional suppliers losing share and newer origins rising rapidly.

Import sources have diversified substantially

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for import concentration fell from 2,770 to 1,734 (−37.4%), indicating a meaningful deconcentration of the EU's supplier base. In 2015, Bangladesh alone accounted for nearly half of all import value (€83.9 million out of €170.3 million). By 2025, while Bangladesh remained the largest single supplier at €99.1 million, its dominance had been eroded by the rapid growth of other origins.

Türkiye, Morocco, India, and China have gained the most ground

The following table summarises the evolution of the EU's top seven import partners by value:

Source: Top import partners

Türkiye (+418.7%) stands out as the fastest-growing major supplier, nearly quintupling its shipments to the EU. This likely reflects both the country's geographic proximity to the EU, its customs union agreement, and its growing role as a nearshoring hub. Morocco (+203.2%) and India (+248.2%) also expanded dramatically, benefiting from EU trade preferences and competitive labour costs. China (+137.0%), despite trade tensions and the elimination of its preferential GSP status, continued to grow significantly in value terms. By contrast, Myanmar (−17.8%) and the United Kingdom (−55.8%) saw declines — the latter almost certainly linked to the UK's departure from the EU single market.

EU exports have reoriented towards North America and Switzerland

On the export side, the geographic shift has been equally pronounced. The United States emerged as the most dynamic export destination, with shipments rising from €1.4 million to €11.2 million (+717.7%). Switzerland also saw strong growth (+213.3%), while Türkiye (+1,462.9%) — simultaneously a major supplier and a growing export destination — recorded the fastest proportional increase among the top seven. The United Kingdom remained the largest single export market at €11.5 million, reflecting the deep integration of UK and EU apparel supply chains despite Brexit. Export concentration also fell, with the HHI declining from 1,150 to 736 (−35.9%).

Within the EU, a core group of southern and eastern member states drives trade

Specialisation data for 2025 shows that Denmark, Portugal, Spain, and Poland are the most specialised EU member states in this product (highest Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage scores), with RSCA values of 0.58, 0.49, 0.36, and 0.32 respectively. Spain and Poland together account for over 12% of EU exports in value, suggesting they serve as both production and re-export hubs. Meanwhile, the largest importing member states by value were Germany (€59.7 million), Spain (€54.6 million), France (€39.6 million), and the Netherlands (€43.8 million), reflecting the size of their domestic retail markets.

3. Rising unit values and price dynamics: a market moving upmarket

While trade volumes have grown only modestly, the value of trade has expanded far more rapidly, indicating a structural shift in the price composition of flows.

Unit prices have risen substantially on both sides

Over the decade, EU import prices per tonne rose from €15,582 to €23,832 (+52.9%), while import prices per piece increased from €4.44 to €6.97 (+57.2%). On the export side, the price escalation was even more pronounced: export values per tonne rose from €34,921 to €76,458 (+118.9%), and the export price per piece climbed from €9.41 to €23.22 (+146.8%). In both cases, the EU has been paying more for its imports while commanding substantially higher prices for its exports.

Source: General trade overview

The export price premium has widened significantly

EU exports consistently command a much higher unit price than imports, and this premium has widened over time. In 2015, the export price per piece (€9.41) was 2.1 times the import price (€4.44). By 2025, the ratio had risen to 3.3 times (€23.22 vs. €6.97). This widening gap suggests that the EU increasingly specialises in higher-value, branded, or technically sophisticated segments of this product category — whether through original design manufacturing, premium sourcing, or re-export of upgraded products. The trade intensity index, which rose from 18.8% to 110.8% (+490.1%), confirms that trade has become far more central to this market than it was a decade ago.

Volatility varies widely across supply sources

Volatility analysis of import flows by partner reveals important differences in supply reliability. Bangladesh, the EU's largest supplier, has the lowest coefficient of variation (CV = 0.184), indicating stable and predictable supply. China (CV = 0.245) and North Macedonia (CV = 0.191) are also relatively stable. At the other extreme, Cambodia (CV = 0.782), India (CV = 0.472), and Indonesia (CV = 0.451) show considerably higher variability in their shipments to the EU. This variation likely reflects differences in production capacity, political stability, and the degree to which these countries have been integrated into stable long-term supply agreements with European buyers.

Occasional price shocks have occurred but at the market's periphery

The shock detection analysis identified several extreme price events in EU export flows, though none involved the market's core supply chain. The most dramatic was a price shock to Nigeria in 2020 (abnormality score of 506, shift of +17,943%), reflecting a very small export volume at an anomalously high price. Similar small-scale price anomalies were detected for Senegal (2020) and Bosnia and Herzegovina (2018). These events had negligible impact on the overall market given their tiny share of total trade value, but they illustrate the pricing irregularities that can occur in small or irregular trade relationships.

Conclusion

The EU market for man-made fibre shirts (CN 620530) has undergone a fundamental structural transformation between 2015 and 2025. Domestic production has collapsed by over three-quarters in volume, while import dependency has surged from 14% to 67% of consumption. The supply base has diversified significantly, with Bangladesh remaining the dominant but less dominant supplier, and Türkiye, Morocco, India, and China emerging as rapidly growing sources. Unit prices have risen sharply — by over 50% on imports and over 100% on exports — reflecting both global inflation in textile costs and the EU's increasing positioning in higher-value market segments. The combination of rising import reliance, evolving supplier geography, and widening price premiums paints a picture of a market that has become deeply integrated into global supply chains, with the EU increasingly functioning as a consumer and re-exporter rather than a primary manufacturer. For policymakers concerned with supply chain resilience and strategic autonomy, this product category offers a clear illustration of the trade-offs between cost efficiency and dependency.