Market evolution: Cotton shirts (CN 620520) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of EU trade in men's or boys' cotton shirts (excluding knitted or crocheted garments, nightshirts, and singlets) under Combined Nomenclature code 620520 over the 2015–2025 period. The analysis covers the EU's trade flows with non-EU countries, drawing on import, export, production, and concentration data at annual frequency.

The decade tells a story of broad contraction. Both import and export volumes fell substantially—by roughly a third and a half respectively—while EU domestic production collapsed by more than three-quarters in unit terms. At the same time, unit values rose meaningfully, particularly for exports, and the geographic composition of trade shifted: China and the United Kingdom lost ground, Bangladesh consolidated its leading position, and import-source concentration intensified. The net result has been a sharp increase in the EU's import dependency, even as the overall market shrank.

The report is structured in three parts. The first examines the overall contraction in trade volumes and the simultaneous rise in unit values. The second analyses the geographic realignment of the EU's trade partners. The third assesses the EU's growing import dependency and the emergence of price vulnerabilities.

1. The Great Contraction: Shrinking Trade Volumes and a Hollowed-Out Production Base

1.1 Import and export values both declined, but volumes fell even faster

Over the 2015–2025 period, the EU's total trade in cotton shirts contracted on virtually every metric. Import value fell from €2,300M to €1,648M (−28.4%), while import volume in tonnes declined from 90,495t to 59,223t (−34.6%). The number of imported items dropped from 308.6 million to 197.4 million pieces (−36.0%). On the export side, the decline was steeper in volume: value fell from €825M to €626M (−24.1%), but the quantity dropped from 11,549t to 5,766t (−50.1%), and the item count fell from 40.3 million to 19.6 million (−51.4%).

The fact that value declined less steeply than volume on both sides points to rising unit values—a dynamic explored further below.

1.2 EU domestic production collapsed at an even steeper pace than trade

The most dramatic shift in the data is the collapse of EU domestic production. The number of cotton shirts produced within the EU fell from 135.7 million items in 2015 to just 29.5 million in 2025—a decline of 78.3%. Production value dropped from €1,505M to €645M (−57.2%). The average value per produced item roughly doubled, from approximately €11 to €22, suggesting a shift toward higher-value segments or the exit of lower-cost mass production from the EU.

Using items as a unit, the EU's apparent consumption (production + imports − exports) fell from approximately 404 million pieces in 2015 to roughly 207 million in 2025—a decline of nearly half. Domestic production's share of this apparent consumption dropped from about 34% to only 14%, while imports' gross share rose from 76% to 95%.

1.3 Unit values diverged: export prices surged while import prices edged up only modestly

The per-piece unit value of EU exports rose by 56.1%, from €20.46 to €31.94, over the decade. By contrast, the import unit value increased by only 11.9%, from €7.45 to €8.34. The widening gap between the two—export shirts cost nearly four times as much per piece as imported ones by 2025—reflects the EU's increasing specialisation in higher-end cotton shirts and the continued dominance of low-cost producing countries on the import side.

This price divergence also explains why the trade balance in value terms narrowed by 30.8% (from −€1,475M to −€1,022M) despite a steeper decline in export volumes than in import volumes. Rising export unit values partially offset the volume loss.

2. Geographic Realignment: Brexit, China's Retreat, and South Asian Consolidation

2.1 The United Kingdom collapsed as both a supplier and a customer following Brexit

The single most striking geographic shift involved the United Kingdom. UK-sourced imports into the EU fell from €108M to just €20.5M (−81.0%), making the UK the most volatile import partner in the dataset with a coefficient of variation of 0.86. EU exports to the UK also declined dramatically, from €207M to €84M (−59.4%). The UK went from being the EU's largest export destination and a significant import source to a much diminished role on both sides—a shift consistent with the trade frictions introduced by Brexit.

2.2 China lost half its EU market while Bangladesh consolidated its leading position

Among the EU's main import partners, the biggest loser was China: imports fell from €421M to €210M (−50.1%). Türkiye also saw a steep decline, from €306M to €181M (−40.9%). By contrast, Bangladesh—already the largest supplier in 2015—held remarkably steady, declining only marginally from €549M to €530M (−3.5%), thus consolidating its position as the EU's dominant source of cotton shirts. India (−9.3%) and Viet Nam (−7.8%) also proved relatively resilient.

On the export side, Switzerland (−2.2%) and the United States (−0.2%) proved the most stable destinations. Russia lost about half its value (−51.8%), likely reflecting the impact of EU sanctions following 2022. Mexico (−65.2%) and Albania (−59.9%) each saw steep declines.

2.3 Import source concentration intensified while export destinations became more dispersed

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) of import sources by value rose from 1,292 to 1,600 (+23.9%), and by volume from 1,586 to 2,241 (+41.3%). This means the EU's import base became significantly more concentrated—Bangladesh alone now accounts for roughly a third of all import value. On the export side, the HHI by value fell from 1,037 to 813 (−21.6%), indicating a modest diversification of export markets.

At the EU member-state level, the importing landscape also shifted. Germany remained the largest importer (€428M, down from €695M), but Poland was a standout, more than doubling its imports from €41M to €82M (+102.5%). Among exporters, Italy remained dominant (€207M), while France surged from €70M to €119M (+70.1%) and Spain collapsed from €160M to €47M (−70.6%).

3. Deepening Dependency: The EU's Surging Import Reliance and Emerging Price Shocks

3.1 The EU's net import reliance nearly quintupled over the decade

Perhaps the most consequential structural shift is the dramatic increase in the EU's net import reliance, which rose from 14.0% in 2015 to 66.9% in 2025—an increase of 378.5%. Similarly, trade intensity (the ratio of trade flows to domestic production) surged from 18.8% to 110.8%, and export propensity from 3.1% to 148.5%. These extreme values reflect the fact that EU production has fallen so far that trade flows now dwarf the domestic manufacturing base.

In practical terms, the EU is now overwhelmingly dependent on imports to meet its cotton shirt demand, with domestic production accounting for a diminishing share of the market.

3.2 Price shocks struck key suppliers in 2022 and 2023

The period saw several significant price shocks. In 2022, Bangladesh—by far the EU's largest cotton shirt supplier—experienced a price shock of +23.7% (abnormality score: 13.4), while Myanmar saw a +22.3% increase (abnormality: 11.5). Both events are consistent with the global cotton price spike and energy cost surge that followed the Russia-Ukraine conflict. In 2023, the EU's exports to Mexico experienced a +110.5% price shock (abnormality: 28.3), though Mexico's small market share (2.7% of export value) limited the broader impact.

Among import partners, the highest volatility (by coefficient of variation) was recorded for the United Kingdom (CV = 0.86), followed by Cambodia (0.55) and North Macedonia (0.39). Bangladesh, the leading supplier, was among the most stable (CV = 0.14). On the export side, Panama showed extreme volatility (CV = 2.92) due to very small and erratic flows, while Switzerland (0.12) and Norway (0.10) were the most predictable markets.

3.3 Intra-EU specialisation remains concentrated in a handful of member states

Within the EU, the production and export of cotton shirts is heavily concentrated. Denmark shows the highest revealed symmetric comparative advantage (RSCA = 0.58), followed by Romania (0.40), Latvia (0.29), Portugal (0.26), and Italy (0.22). These five countries together account for the bulk of the EU's remaining export capacity in this product.

At the other end of the spectrum, Ireland (RSCA = −0.97), Malta (−0.96), and Finland (−0.85) show no meaningful specialisation in this product, consistent with their smaller textile sectors. Italy stands out as the only large-economy member with a positive RSCA, accounting for 12.6% of EU production in this category.

Conclusion

The EU's trade in cotton shirts (CN 620520) over 2015–2025 has been characterised by three reinforcing dynamics. First, a broad contraction in volumes: both imports and exports roughly halved in unit terms, while EU domestic production collapsed by 78% in items. Second, a geographic realignment: the United Kingdom receded sharply as a trade partner following Brexit, China lost half its EU market share, and Bangladesh consolidated its position as the dominant supplier—while import-source concentration rose. Third, a structural deepening of import dependency: the EU's net import reliance surged from 14% to 67%, and the 2022 price shocks from Bangladesh and Myanmar offered a preview of the supply-side risks inherent in this concentration.

The partial offset has been rising unit values, particularly on the export side (+56% per piece), which narrowed the trade deficit in value terms even as volumes contracted. This points to a European industry that is retreating from mass-market production and concentrating on higher-value niches. However, with domestic output now accounting for barely 14% of apparent consumption, the EU's exposure to external supply disruptions and price volatility in this everyday product category has never been greater.