Market evolution: Baby garments non-knit (CN 6209) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of EU external trade in non-knitted babies' garments and clothing accessories (CN 6209) over the period 2015–2025. The product covers cotton, synthetic-fibre, and other textile-based baby apparel excluding knitted or crocheted items and hats. Drawing on EU-level trade statistics, the analysis reveals a market undergoing significant structural transformation: a sharp contraction in import volumes, a partial re-shoring of production, and a geographic diversification of sourcing away from established Asian suppliers. Below, these dynamics are examined in three main sections addressing import contraction and reshoring, the reconfiguration of sourcing geographies, and the competitive positioning of EU Member States.

1. A decade of declining imports and rising self-sufficiency

EU imports have contracted sharply in both volume and value

Between 2015 and 2025, the total value of EU imports of CN 6209 products fell from €573.9 million to €378.5 million, a decline of 34.0%. The contraction was even more pronounced in physical terms: import volumes dropped from 27,896 tonnes to 15,103 tonnes, a decrease of 45.9%. This means the EU is importing roughly half the quantity of non-knitted baby garments it sourced abroad a decade ago.

Domestic production has surged to fill the gap

The decline in imports has been offset by a significant expansion of EU-based production. EU production value for CN 6209 grew from €136.1 million in 2015 to €226.2 million in 2025, an increase of 66.1%. This re-shoring trend reflects a broader post-pandemic pattern in European textiles, where supply-chain disruptions, rising freight costs, and growing demand for traceability have encouraged near-shoring.

Net import reliance has dropped substantially

The combined effect of falling imports and rising domestic production is captured by the net import reliance ratio, which declined from 75.6% in 2015 to 50.5% in 2025 — a 33.1% reduction. At the peak of import dependence (around 2019–2020), the EU sourced nearly 89% of its apparent consumption from abroad. By 2025, roughly half the market is served by domestic suppliers.

Unit prices have risen, signalling quality shifts or inflation

While volumes have fallen, import unit prices increased by 21.8%, from €20,572/t to €25,057/t. On the export side, EU exporters achieved even higher price growth of 15.6%, reaching €55,402/t by 2025. The persistent gap between export and import unit prices (roughly €55,000/t versus €25,000/t) indicates that the EU tends to export higher-value-added baby garments while importing more standardised, lower-cost products.

2. Sourcing geographies in flux: the rise of South-East Asia and the decline of traditional suppliers

China's dominant position has eroded but remains substantial

China was the EU's largest supplier of CN 6209 products in 2015, accounting for €251.6 million in imports. By 2025, this had fallen to €128.7 million — a decline of 48.8%. In volume terms, cotton baby garments from China (the dominant sub-product 620920) fell from 21,069 tonnes to 9,503 tonnes. Nonetheless, China remained the single largest source in 2025, reflecting entrenched manufacturing capacity and competitive pricing.

Bangladesh and Türkiye have also lost share

Bangladesh, the second-largest supplier, saw imports decline from €137.9 million to €97.8 million (−29.1%). Türkiye experienced an even steeper proportional drop, from €26.1 million to €14.4 million (−44.8%). These declines reflect a combination of competitive pressures from lower-cost emerging producers and, in Türkiye's case, macroeconomic instability affecting export pricing.

Myanmar has emerged as a fast-growing alternative supplier

The most striking geographic shift has been the rise of Myanmar. EU imports from Myanmar surged from just €1.7 million in 2015 to €13.5 million in 2025 — a 697% increase. While still a relatively modest share of total imports, this growth reflects the broader "China+1" sourcing strategy pursued by European retailers seeking to diversify supply chains. However, the import volatility for Myanmar is among the highest (coefficient of variation of 0.49), suggesting the sourcing relationship is still maturing.

The UK's role has collapsed following Brexit

The decline in EU imports from the United Kingdom has been dramatic: from €37.3 million in 2015 to €4.8 million in 2025 (−87.3%). The UK's coefficient of variation for exports to the EU stands at 1.22 — the highest among all partners — confirming the structural break caused by Brexit. Similarly, EU exports to the UK declined from €32.1 million to €20.2 million (−37.0%). The trade relationship has clearly been disrupted by the introduction of customs formalities and regulatory barriers post-January 2021.

Import concentration has fallen, signalling diversification

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for imports declined from 2,651 to 2,101 (−20.8%). While still indicating a moderately concentrated market (above 2,500 is typically considered highly concentrated), the downward trend confirms that the EU is diversifying its supply base. On the export side, destination markets have also diversified, with the HHI falling from 1,048 to 731 (−30.2%), reflecting growing exports to the Middle East, North America, and Central Asia.

3. Uneven competitive positions within the EU: Southern and Eastern Europe gain ground

Southern European countries dominate EU exports

Among EU Member States, Spain and Italy are the leading exporters of CN 6209 products. Spain's export value rose from €31.7 million to €43.6 million (+37.5%), while Italy's grew from €29.4 million to €32.1 million (+9.2%). France maintained a stable position at around €26.8 million. These three countries together account for the bulk of the EU's outbound trade in non-knitted baby garments.

Spain and Portugal show the strongest export specialisation

Based on revealed comparative advantage data, Spain has the highest RSCA (Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage) score in the EU at 0.73, indicating strong specialisation in this product category. Portugal follows with an RSCA of 0.52. These countries have well-established textile industries oriented toward children's apparel, with competitive advantages in design, quality, and proximity to North African and Latin American markets.

Poland has emerged as a rapidly growing trade hub

Poland stands out for its rapid growth on both the import and export side. Polish imports surged from €6.1 million to €23.6 million (+289.2%), while exports grew from €1.3 million to €6.3 million (+370.1%). Poland's RSCA of 0.37 indicates moderate but growing specialisation. This trajectory is consistent with Poland's broader role as an increasingly important node in European textile supply chains, leveraging lower labour costs within the EU and strong logistics links to both Western Europe and Eastern markets.

The largest traditional importers have all seen substantial declines

The EU's biggest importing countries have all reduced their intake significantly. France (−41.7%), Germany (−50.6%), Spain (−22.1%), Italy (−39.9%), and the Netherlands (−39.1%) all recorded double-digit declines in import value. This convergence suggests a structural shift rather than country-specific factors — consistent with the re-shoring narrative and changing consumer preferences for locally produced children's apparel.

The product mix is dominated by cotton garments

At the sub-product level, cotton baby garments (CN 620920) account for the vast majority of both imports and exports. In 2025, cotton products represented 9,503 tonnes out of 15,103 tonnes of total imports (63%) and €248.8 million out of €378.5 million in value (66%). The second-largest category is synthetic-fibre garments (CN 620930), at 4,896 tonnes. Notably, the decline in cotton imports has been steeper in percentage terms than for synthetics, potentially reflecting supply-chain concerns around cotton sourcing (e.g., Xinjiang-related due diligence requirements under EU sustainability regulations).

Conclusion

The EU market for non-knitted baby garments (CN 6209) has undergone a profound structural transformation between 2015 and 2025. Import volumes have nearly halved while domestic production grew by over 60%, reducing the EU's net import reliance from roughly three-quarters to one-half of apparent consumption. The sourcing landscape has shifted significantly: China's share has diminished, new suppliers such as Myanmar have emerged, and Brexit has nearly severed the once-substantial UK–EU trade flows in this category. Within the EU, Southern European countries (Spain, Italy, Portugal) have consolidated their export specialisation, while Poland has emerged as a fast-growing participant on both sides of the trade ledger. Looking ahead, the continued evolution of EU sustainability regulations, labour standards in third countries, and geopolitical developments in key sourcing regions (particularly South-East Asia and Türkiye) will shape the next phase of this market's development.