Market evolution: Women's cotton trousers (CN 620462) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyses the EU-27 trade dynamics for combined nomenclature code 620462 — women's or girls' trousers, bib and brace overalls, breeches and shorts of cotton (excluding knitted or crocheted, panties and swimwear) — over the period 2015–2025. The product heading covers a wide range of everyday cotton garments, from denim jeans to workwear overalls and shorts, and constitutes one of the largest categories in EU apparel trade. Over the decade examined, the EU's external trade in this product has undergone significant structural change: import volumes have surged while domestic production has contracted sharply, the geographic composition of suppliers has shifted markedly, and unit prices have followed divergent trends on the import and export sides. The data reveal a market that is simultaneously growing in scale and deepening its dependence on extra-EU sourcing, with important implications for supply-chain resilience.

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1. A Widening Trade Deficit Fueled by Collapsing Domestic Production

EU production of women's cotton trousers fell by over 70 % in volume

The most striking structural shift over the decade is the dramatic contraction of EU-based production. Output fell from 125.1 million items in 2015 to just 37.4 million items in 2025, a decline of 70.1 %. In value terms, production dropped from €1.42 billion to €0.70 billion (−51.0 %). This halving of production value alongside a two-thirds collapse in unit volumes implies that the remaining EU output has shifted toward higher-value products — a pattern consistent with the retention of premium and niche manufacturing (e.g., Italian designer trousers) while mass-market production has migrated offshore.

Import volumes grew 21 % while export volumes shrank 12 %

Against the backdrop of declining local manufacturing, EU imports of CN 620462 rose from 205,012 tonnes to 248,604 tonnes (+21.3 %) in mass, and from 530.8 million items to 531.1 million items (essentially flat at +0.1 %) in piece count. The combination of stable item counts but rising mass suggests a heavier average garment — possibly reflecting a shift toward denim and heavier-weight cotton trousers within the import basket. Meanwhile, exports fell from 25,377 tonnes to 22,439 tonnes (−11.6 %) in mass and from 66.4 million to 48.2 million items (−27.4 %) in piece count, indicating that the EU's role as a re-exporter and intra-EU redistribution hub has diminished.

Net import reliance surged from 21 % to 81 %

The convergence of rising imports and falling production pushed the EU's net import reliance from 20.7 % in 2015 to 80.9 % in 2025 — nearly a quadrupling (+290.5 %). The trade deficit widened correspondingly from −€2.85 billion to −€3.13 billion (−10.0 %). In parallel, trade intensity (total extra-EU trade as a share of production + imports) climbed from 25.6 % to 107.4 %, and export propensity (exports relative to production) rose from 3.5 % to 149.7 %. These indicators together paint a picture of an EU market that has become overwhelmingly import-dependent for this category, while its residual exports increasingly reflect re-export or higher-value-added items destined for neighbouring markets such as Switzerland and the United States.

2. Geographic Rebalancing: Bangladesh Overtakes China as the EU's Leading Supplier

Bangladesh consolidated its position as the top supplier, while China's share eroded

The decade witnessed a decisive reshuffling among the EU's top import partners. In 2015, China and Bangladesh were virtually neck-and-neck, each supplying roughly €900 million. By 2025, Bangladesh had surged to €1,239 million (+39.5 %), while China had fallen to €499 million (−44.7 %). Bangladesh thus accounts for approximately 29.4 % of all extra-EU imports in value, compared to China's 11.8 %.

Pakistan and Cambodia emerged as fast-growing sourcing destinations

Beyond the China-to-Bangladesh shift, the data reveal a second tier of rapidly expanding suppliers. Pakistan nearly doubled its shipments to the EU, rising from €255 million to €481 million (+89.0 %), while Cambodia grew from €165 million to €290 million (+75.6 %). Both countries benefit from preferential trade arrangements (GSP/EBA) and competitive labour costs. Conversely, the EU's Mediterranean neighbours Morocco (−22.7 %) and Tunisia (−18.0 %) saw their positions erode, despite their geographical proximity and EU–Euro-Mediterranean association agreements. This may reflect cost competition from Asian producers and the gradual shift of nearshoring capacity toward Türkiye rather than North Africa for this specific product category.

Türkiye remained a stable nearshore supplier and a growing re-export market

Türkiye's imports into the EU were remarkably stable, hovering around €700–720 million throughout the decade (+2.6 %). However, EU exports to Türkiye grew dramatically from €41 million to €104 million (+154.3 %), suggesting that Türkiye serves partly as a processing and re-export hub that sources some inputs or finished goods from the EU (likely Italian fabrics or design-intensive products) for further assembly and onward sale.

Export markets polarized between declining traditional partners and growing non-European demand

On the export side, the United Kingdom remained the largest single destination but lost ground sharply, falling from €220 million to €134 million (−39.3 %) — a decline likely accelerated by post-Brexit trade frictions and customs formalities. Russia similarly declined from €109 million to €57 million (−47.1 %), reflecting sanctions and geopolitical disruption from 2022 onward. In contrast, Switzerland grew steadily to €189 million (+26.8 %), the United States reached €101 million (+82.9 %), and China — though a much smaller export market — rose to €70 million (+34.8 %), likely driven by EU luxury and premium brands shipped to Chinese consumers.

Spain and Poland stood out as the most dynamic EU Member States

Within the EU, Spain consolidated its role as the largest importer (from €972 million to €1,312 million, +34.9 %), consistent with its large fast-fashion sector (Inditex/Zara). Poland experienced the most dramatic growth in both imports (+369.9 % to €308 million) and exports (+539.9 % to €85 million), reflecting its emergence as a major garment manufacturing and logistics hub within the EU. Meanwhile, Germany's imports declined by 22.6 %, possibly reflecting demand-side weakness or the re-routing of sourcing operations to lower-cost EU member states.

3. Diverging Unit Prices, Concentrated Sourcing, and Notable Trade Shocks

Import unit prices moderated while export unit prices surged

A striking feature of the decade is the divergence between import and export unit prices. The average import price per item rose only modestly from €7.38 to €7.92 (+7.3 %), and the per-tonne import price actually fell from €19,097 to €16,957 (−11.2 %). By contrast, the average export price per item jumped from €16.12 to €22.55 (+39.9 %), and the per-tonne export price climbed from €42,149 to €48,392 (+14.8 %). This pattern is consistent with the EU increasingly positioning itself as an exporter of higher-unit-value cotton trousers (premium brands, designer lines) while importing mass-market products at lower price points.

Denim trousers dominated the import basket and grew the fastest by volume

Breaking the product down by sub-segment, cotton denim trousers (62046231) were the largest import category, growing from 89,970 tonnes to 142,227 tonnes (+58.1 %) in mass — the fastest growth of any sub-segment. Denim now accounts for 57.2 % of all imports by mass, up from 43.9 % in 2015. Non-denim, non-corduroy cotton trousers (62046239), the second-largest segment, actually declined in volume from 91,469 to 75,657 tonnes (−17.3 %), while shorts (62046290) grew from 17,302 to 25,828 tonnes (+49.3 %). These shifts reflect evolving consumer preferences — denim's enduring popularity and the rise of casual/athleisure shorts — and they have implications for sourcing geography, since Bangladesh and Pakistan are particularly strong in denim production.

Import sourcing remained moderately concentrated, while export markets diversified

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for imports by value was essentially flat at around 1,517–1,540, indicating moderate concentration — not dominated by a single supplier but not highly diversified either. The volume-based import HHI did rise slightly from 1,833 to 2,092 (+14.1 %), suggesting that the physical flow of goods became somewhat more concentrated on fewer origins, likely reflecting Bangladesh's growing dominance in denim. On the export side, the HHI by value fell from 869 to 798 (−8.2 %), confirming a diversification of export destinations as the UK and Russia lost share and newer markets (the US, Türkiye, China) gained.

Three notable price shocks were detected, linked to post-pandemic and geopolitical disruptions

The volatility analysis identified three significant price shocks:

1. EU exports to the UK — 2021 (abnormality: 22.1, shift: +65.0 %): A sharp unit-price spike coinciding with the first full year of post-Brexit trade. The new customs border likely eliminated lower-value re-exports and raised transaction costs, concentrating flows on higher-value shipments. The UK's share of export value was 19.4 % at that time.

2. EU exports to the US — 2023 (abnormality: 9.2, shift: +141.1 %): An extraordinary jump in the per-unit export price, likely reflecting a compositional shift toward premium European brands being shipped directly to the US market, possibly accelerated by the strong dollar making EU goods more expensive in local terms but boosting euro-denominated values.

3. EU imports from Bangladesh — 2022 (abnormality: 5.0, shift: +19.6 %): A price increase aligned with the global surge in cotton and energy costs in 2022. Given that Bangladesh accounts for 35.8 % of import value, this shock rippled through the entire EU market.

Among the major partners, China exhibited the highest import-side volatility (CV = 0.32), reflecting its declining and fluctuating trade volumes. On the export side, Mexico (CV = 0.53) and China (CV = 0.86 for the UK as a re-export destination for non-EU flows) showed the greatest instability.

Spain, Poland, and Italy emerged as the most specialised EU producers

The revealed comparative advantage (RSCA) analysis for 2025 shows that Spain (RSCA = 0.54, RCA = 3.38) and Poland (RSCA = 0.40, RCA = 2.32) are the most specialised EU member states in this product category, followed by Denmark (RSCA = 0.25) and Italy (RSCA = 0.10). Italy's specialisation is notable given that it accounts for 9.8 % of EU production value, confirming its position in premium cotton trousers. At the other extreme, Malta (RSCA = −0.93), Ireland (RSCA = −0.89), and Finland (RSCA = −0.84) show no comparative advantage whatsoever in this segment.

Conclusion

The EU market for women's cotton trousers (CN 620462) underwent a profound structural transformation between 2015 and 2025. Domestic production collapsed by 70 % in volume, leaving the EU with a net import reliance of 81 % — up from just 21 % a decade earlier. This deepening dependence has been accompanied by a decisive geographic rebalancing of supply chains: Bangladesh has overtaken China as the dominant supplier, Pakistan and Cambodia have emerged as fast-growing secondary sources, and Mediterranean neighbours Morocco and Tunisia have lost ground. The EU's own exports have simultaneously shifted toward higher-unit-value products destined for Switzerland, the United States, and Türkiye, even as traditional outlets like the UK and Russia declined. Import prices have remained relatively contained, while export unit values have surged, confirming the EU's gradual repositioning toward the premium end of the value chain. The detected price shocks — linked to post-Brexit disruption, pandemic-era cost inflation, and shifting US demand patterns — underscore the vulnerability of a market that is now overwhelmingly reliant on extra-EU sourcing for a basic consumer staple. Monitoring supply-chain concentration, particularly around Bangladesh's dominant role in denim, will be critical for assessing future resilience.